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What do you guys make of all this insider trading? A lot of these sales are for options that don't expire anytime soon so, why sell now? Do they think this is as good as it will get? The bottom line is, these people think now is a good time so, why shouldn't we?
Not sure what to make of it. I personally am not ready. I have other things that need to coincide with a sale. In any case I think there is still upside potential. We shall see.Quote:
Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz
I hear you but, if everyone was running out of a building, I wouldn't just stand there. I think there is more potential upside but, I can't help but feel like I am doing something wrong by not selling.
I think that is a bit of overstatement. I would not say "everyone" is running out of the building ... not even close.Quote:
Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz
But there is also another analogy. if a whole bunch of lemmings are running towards a cliff ... would you just stand there and watch them or get in the middle of the herd?
I am not worried about the company and the value of the company .... the thing I am more worried about is the whole market dragging it back down. It is getting more difficult to know where to place stops for sure.
In your analogy, some of the top executives at Sirius XM are a bunch of cliff jumping "lemmings."
It might not be "everyone" but, it is a bunch of heavy hitters who are choosing to sell right now.
You are reading too much into what I am saying. ... let me restate:Quote:
Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz
The analogy was about if an individual should or should not follow what others are doing for the sake of what they are doing without information or in spite of information otherwise available.
While the executives may not be lemmings(who knows we don't know why they are jumping and to where) .... the lemmings are the people that follow them just because they `appear` to be jumping to safety.
You say a "bunch" or heavy hitters. maybe I am misinformed ... can you list the whole "bunch"
Also an answer to this quote
"The bottom line is, these people think now is a good time so, why shouldn't we? "
1. We don't know why! trading on a lack of information is not a good strategy.
2. Do we know they think it is a good time to sell for the sake of share price? Maybe they need to pay bills. Maybe they need to diversify. Maybe it is something totally different. refer to #1
3. I personally don't trade on things I don't know... Now a healthy stop .. that is a different story.
Don't take me too seriously, I am trying to keep this lighthearted but, I do think it's a good conversation to have.
Why isn't this selling considered information?Quote:
Originally Posted by airman
All I am saying is, all the people running out of a building is information in and of itself. Just because you don't smell smoke doesn't mean there isn't a fire.
As I recall, there have been a half dozen in the past couple of weeks... that's a lot. Were are talking about a bunch of Presidents, VP's, and Officers.Quote:
Originally Posted by airman
Waiting for bad news isn't a good trading strategy either. Unless you have insider information, chances are you aren't going to get in or out at the exact right time. By the time you have bad information, and get the chance to act, half the value of the stock might be gone.Quote:
Originally Posted by airman
To be clear, I'm not saying this will happen. All I am saying is that it can and does happen all the time.
If it were one or two people, I would tend to agree and we wouldn't be having this conversation but, it's not...Quote:
Originally Posted by airman
I am starting to wonder if selling is in my immediate future?
Why now? Because Mel was on Mad Money? Last time he was on Mad Money didn't the stock drop like a rock?
Why now? Well for one, it is near its 52 week high. P/E multiple is something like 34. Most analyst price targets are in the $2.50 range; in other words, it's there.
I'm not a buyer / seller type investor, but things are pretty damn good right now. Those 10 cent shares have done wonders for me. Should have bought more lol (to dollar average down the shares I bought at $3.25).
It's hard to disagree with that. I have a feeling this is why insiders are selling and why I have wanted to pull the trigger myself.
I want someone to give me a good reason not to sell.
Not sure how I can't take it too seriously .. you parsed my every word :)Quote:
Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz
You may think you smell smoke because you are paranoid. Look, sell away if you are scared of what you do not know.Quote:
"Why isn't this selling considered information?
All I am saying is, all the people running out of a building is information in and of itself. Just because you don't smell smoke doesn't mean there isn't a fire."
But you have no idea if it is fire or if in fact you are even really smelling smoke.
I was hoping for a list ... not just abstract. Thought you knew specifics.Quote:
"As I recall, there have been a half dozen in the past couple of weeks... that's a lot. Were are talking about a bunch of Presidents, VP's, and Officers."
That is what stops are for. Lighten your position if you are scared of the ghosts you see.Quote:
"Waiting for bad news isn't a good trading strategy either. Unless you have insider information, chances are you aren't going to get in or out at the exact right time. By the time you have bad information, and get the chance to act, half the value of the stock might be gone.
To be clear, I'm not saying this will happen. All I am saying is that it can and does happen all the time."
If you truly feel you are just "waiting for bad news" you shouldn't be in the stock. period.
If that many people were participating in insider trading by acting on non-public knowledgeQuote:
"If it were one or two people, I would tend to agree and we wouldn't be having this conversation but, it's not..."
there would be some big problems as it is too obvious and they would all get caught.
Chill out ... put in your stops.
Debt is being serviced. There is no reason to believe that there will be any problems in that area for the foreseeable future.Quote:
"I want someone to give me a good reason not to sell."
Free Cash flow is increasing year over year. Subscribers are still increasing. In fact most all metrics are better than where most of us bought in. If we believed then .. why not now.
Mel indicates that he believes that they should buy back stock going forward. That would be a good thing as well.
I personally believe the frequencies alone are worth close to what the market cap says we are at now. That alone is nearly good enough for me to think that we are still undervalued. And that will only become more valuable.
Now I know nothing about your position,portfolio,or other considerations,
But As I said In my other response to you. Anytime you are just waiting for the bad news to drop. You have to ask yourself .. why am I in this stock. It doesn't matter if you are right or wrong... it is just a good rule to follow.
Otherwise you get into the habit of "hoping for the best". At the very least ... set your stops!!!
If they trigger ... walk away knowing you had good gains and don't second guess if it leaves you behind.
Sorry about that, I thought the SEC Fillings page was common knowledge; http://investor.sirius.com/sec.cfmQuote:
Originally Posted by airman
I'm not scared of ghosts, I'm happy with what I think is a high stock price. It seems as though some of the key players at Sirius XM have the same feelings.Quote:
Originally Posted by airman
Very early on in this post I said insider "trading," I never meant to insinuate anything illegal. It was a poor choice of words but, I thought I was clear when I said "sales are for options that don't expire anytime soon." I apologize if I wasn't. I assumed everyone was receiving the same SEC Filling reports in their emails and had already heard about all of the options being exercised.Quote:
Originally Posted by airman
There are quite a few more than I knew of. Thanks for the link.
It could just as easily seem that this is a tough economy and there are those that need the cash .... or now that the price is closer to what is reasonable they may want to diversify. There are many things it could seem like depending on your viewpoint. What i was saying is that you THINK it is a high price stock ... so you are seeing ghosts in what they are doing. But that is my opinion only. Since you THINK the stock is high priced you probably should go ahead and divest until you think it is a better investment.Quote:
I'm not scared of ghosts, I'm happy with what I think is a high stock price. It seems as though some of the key players at Sirius XM have the same feelings.
No apology needed. I didn't think you said they were insider trading.Quote:
Very early on in this post I said insider "trading," I never meant to insinuate anything illegal. It was a poor choice of words but, I thought I was clear when I said "sales are for options that don't expire anytime soon." I apologize if I wasn't. I assumed everyone was receiving the same SEC Filling reports in their emails and had already heard about all of the options being exercised.
What "I" was saying is that "IF" they are bailing because they know something we don't(that isn't public) then they run the risk of "insider trading laws". Therefore I do not think this is so either. Then I default back to what I DO know. Again with healthy stops!
By the way ... I tried to give you reasons in the other post. You didn't respond to it.
You think I am totally off base? just wondering ;) Besides we need some posts in here ... it has been boring for the past 6 months.
What other post?
BTW, SIRI short interest is up 5% from the previous week. Something we should all keep an eye on.
Looks like those insiders picked a good time to sell all those shares.