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Good Morning All :sunny:
As much as I hate to interrupt the conversation we are in a new
week. And here we are hovering just below one dollar.
Mid point of April already, and Spring has arrived in Michigan. :yesnod:
Hope you have a good week. :)
Julie
Well we will find out soon enough how many subs were added (Yes I do think they unexpectly (even to Mel) added subs this quarter). The question is how many. From what I have been seeing estimates range from a loss of 260,000 to some non analyst that think a 300,000 gain. Both ends of the spectrum are way out there. Listen while it is hard to project that close, it is also easy enough to come to a reasonable estimate. First you just have to look at past churn from past quarters to get a grasp of the kind of churn we will see this quarter. Then you just have to take in some of the reported numbers of OEMs. While that gets you most of the way the other numbers (like used OEM and retail sales) are a little harder to guess. So looking at an average loss of subscribers, you come to at least 1.5 million subs churning out this quarter. Then we take the new car sales for the quarter which are around 2.5 million, then just multiply that by 60% (.6 for the dumb twits like Havasucker out there). That gets us to a number of basically 1.5 million, so that means that the new OEM (we dont know what the used OEM number is) sales will just about even out. That means what is left (retail and used OEM sales) is a plus to the rolls for SIRIXM. That is where the guess work comes in. Since we know SIRIXM cant call any used car on promo deal a subscriber it makes that a little easyer.
So here gos the guess work. I will guess that they added anywhere from 70,000 to 100,000 new retail (not net mind you but any loss of retail is already taken out in the 1.5 million number for all-in churn). Then because of when the used OEM programs went into effect and the length of the promotions, I only see 5,000 to 15,000 adds there. So if you take a few thousand (we will call it 5,000) from new OEM sales and add that to 70,000 to 100,000 from retail and add that to the 5,000 to 15,000 used OEM sales, you get a range of about 80,000 to 120,000.
I know that number is alot lower then some would like. For those who do then just think of it this way. There is no way in hell Mel thought they would be adding any subs in the first quarter when he gave his projection of 500,000 for the year. The reason why, because the numbers he had at the time he said it, were terrible. If Jan. and Feb. OEM sales where carried over to Mar. there would have to be at least a small loss of subs.
"A lot lower"? I'll take 100,000 sub increase any day, but methinks SIRI will do better, or at least hope so. I'm anxious to quantify the effect of the ad campaign. Next campaign should cater to usage marketing - two drivers stuck in traffic laughing their asses off (and catch each other) - an early Saturday morning breakfast with Spectrum in the background; sunny and smiling (it happens in this house) - rabid football fans on the road listening to the winning FG - a great dinner idea from Martha that makes the family happy (ok, that's a stretch).......................................... .......Quote:
Originally Posted by john
john . . . thank you, very nice work here . . . a well-reasoned forecast based on sound metrics and with the math details clearly broken out.Quote:
Originally Posted by john
This is the kind of concise, on-point, analysis that I had hoped Spence would present as a fresh news article. Last week I broke Spence's chops a little by suggesting that his "Signal Outage" article was not news at all and would have been better placed in the forums . . . I still stand by that.
Now, applying that same logic, the post john has presented here, imo, belongs as a front-of-the-site news article rather than as a forum post and I challenge the moderators to lift the post (with john's consent of course) and move it up to news status . . . there is nothing crazy or outrageous here, just a good solid forecast based on known metrics and with the appropriate caveats where needed . . .
Anyway, I will throw my forecast in at 76,000 Net-Ads for Q-1; I worked in reverse, however, starting with my own projected year-end net-ads-total of 575,000 and then backed-into Q-1, which I have properly adjusted as a seasonally weak period. Retail & CPO are the wildcards . . . the CPO channel should start bearing fruit very soon Spence; it is inevitable.
and he better start posting something useful here . . . guy doesn't even break a sweat anymoreQuote:
Originally Posted by julietoo
;)
Sirius XM Stock: The $1 Question
By Andrea Tse 04/13/10 - 07:00 AM EDT
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Sirius XM(SIRI) stock is hovered just below the $1.00 threshold during Monday's regular trading session after touching a buck earlier Monday morning and briefly clearing $1 on April 9. As the stock bobs up and down and above and below $1, many investors are left to ponder whether Sirius XM stock will ultimately be able to not only break this threshold, but clear it going forward. (no Andrea, only unsophisticated jackasses ponder that)
As for Barrington Research equity analyst John Hain, he believes Sirius XM stock will appreciate in value over the next 12 months. Indeed, Barrington Research currently has a $1.25, 12-month price target on Sirius XM stock.
The key drivers for Sirius XM stock and its top line growth, according to Hain, will be rebounding vehicle sales on the back of increasing consumer confidence and a better job outlook, as well as ongoing low interest rates to the benefit of the original equipment manufacturer channel in the upcoming months. Hain notes that seasonally adjusted auto sales fell slightly in February, but spiked in March to their highest levels since the Cash for Clunkers program ended in August 2009.
That said, Hain also believes that while the $1 threshold that everyone's been fixated on is undoubtedly psychologically significant to some degree, particularly with regards to NASDAQ listing standards, it's "really nothing more than another point along the interval scale of market value," Hain wrote in an email to TheStreet. "The fact that most investors believe delisting is likely to be avoided, be it by way of [Sirius XM CEO] Karmazin successfully appealing to the NASDAQ or by way of a reverse-split, means that the $1 mark needn't be given any additional reverence."
Brent Wilsey of Wilsey Asset Management expressed a slightly different sentiment about the stock. Although Wilsey understands why some would want to buy the stock, given that it's cheap and it's business has been improving, "people are not looking at what the dollar represents," (hmm, now that's the kind of hard data an investor can really sink his teeth into)he said. "The business is improving, but it has a long way to go." Wilsey cited Sirius' total debt level of $3.3 billion, versus total equity of $37 million.
Wilsey, who notes that Sirius XM stock currently comprises 0.1% of his portfolio, says that while he wouldn't advise buying Sirius XM stock as a serious, long-term investment, investors "can have fun with it." He warned that excitement over what he deemed a "Vegas" stock could keep pushing it up above $1, which would only encourage a "false sense of security" among investors.
Still, Wilsey wouldn't be surprised if Sirius XM stock ended up staying put at $1 long enough to satisfy Nasdaq's listing requirements, because "it might be a good, surprise earnings season ... as long as the market does well , Sirius will go along for ride." (That a'boy Wilsey; gutsey call there . . . really going out on a limb)
Sirius XM stock, which had been trading below a dollar for well over a year, broke through the $1 threshold and managed to stay above it for several days in a row; the stock, however, eventually retreated before those 10 straight business days had passed by (Thank you Matthew Hooligan of Wonderdick Securities, a talented man who speaks out of both sides of his mouth at once). On March 26, Sirius said that the NASDAQ has scheduled a hearing for April 29, at which Sirius XM would be given the opportunity to ask for continued listing on the NASDAQ, pending its re-compliance with NASDAQ's $1 a share rule.
Sirius XM stock ended the trading session down 2.1% at 97 cents. Neither analyst had seen or heard any Sirius-stock driving news on Monday.
-- Reported by Andrea Tse in New York
Hey Andrea, did you know that the short interest is rising? Yeah, I just learned that from Tyler Savery . . it's big news; maybe you and he can collaborate on your next piece . . .
Sirius (SIRI) Shares Upgraded to Buy at JANCO; Firm Sets $1.30 Price Target
Shares of Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI) are trading slightly higher this morning following an upgrade from an analyst at JANCO Partners. The firm now rates shares of Sirius a Buy, up from Accumulate previously, and also lifted its price target on the stock from $0.80 to $1.30.
The stock last traded at $0.979, up about 0.8% from yesterday's closing price. Based on today's price action, JANCO's new price target suggests potential upside of about 32%.
It should be noted that prior to a very brief move above the $1 level in mid-February, shares of Sirius have not been above the $1 level since September of 2008.
Visit our Analyst Ratings page to see all the market-moving upgrades/downgrades on shares of Sirius XM Radio.
UPDATE: The article was updated as, after opening in negative territory, shares of Sirius turned positive as this upgrade made its way around the wires.
link:
http://www.streetinsider.com/Upgrades/Sirius+(SIRI)+Shares+Upgraded+to+Buy+at+JANCO%3B+F irm+Sets+$1.30+Price+Target/5524577.html
Sirius Roadkill, to be honest, I would much rather have Tylers (Spence O.) guess then my own, he has a better understanding of retail sales (he has the research materials/sites to get closer guess of retail). I will mention that that is why I think he has another site (that you have to pay for) inwhich you can get that kind of information. While I personally wont pay for it, that should not stop anyone else. He has every right to ask for people to pay for his knowledge on this subject. The only problem I can see he will have is that there are way to many other sites that are willing to do it for free. His asset is that he is the best and most accurate. He like I, does not let emotion get in the way (examples: Satwaves, KOAT). That is why this has always been the best site to goto to get the information needed to trade this company (while Tyler (Spence O.) was here). The fact is that even without him though, it is still the best site because you dont have do much intervention from Charles to tell people what they can and cannot say.
Sirius Roadkill, you see why I hate this company it fricks me over almost every single time. 170,000 subs added, WELL there it gos again. The good news is with a number like that, Mel may have to increase his 500,000 total for the year subs added number sooner then I had thought at first. I just cant see how he can keep it at that to much longer after the second quarter if they add another 150,000 to 175,000 in the second quarter as he most likely thought before. I mean really that would give them anywhere from 320,000 to 355,000 and to keep his old number would look ridiculous (almost as ridiculous as my 1st quarter sub figure now looks.
Ho John
you twit...missed by 51k subs...cant you get anything right!! LOL
Actually, you did one of the better jobs putting your estimates together and explained and justified them. Nice work.
Now...please predict the bottom line numbers for 1st qtr...and underestimate them by 30%
Just Sirius