Sirius XM Radio to Announce Full Year and Fourth Quarter 2010 Results

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02-01-2011, 09:38 PM
Sirius Roadkill

Sirius XM Radio to Announce Full Year and Fourth Quarter 2010 Results

Company to Webcast Earnings Call for Investors and Media

NEW YORK, Feb. 1, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI) today announced that it plans to release full year and fourth quarter 2010 financial and operating results on Tuesday, February 15, 2011.

(Logo: http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20101014/NY82093LOGO )

SiriusXM will hold a conference call at 8:00 am ET on Tuesday, February 15, 2011 to discuss these results. Investors and the press can listen to the conference call via the company's website, www.sirius.com, and on its satellite radio service by tuning to SIRIUS channel 113 or XM channel 90.
02-01-2011, 10:18 PM
john163888

I feel safe in saying that they will get (at least) 300,000 subs for the quarter. Now because of churn that will be higher then what we have seen so far, I dont expect the final subscriber number will be as huge as it was last quarter, even if they get about the same OEM numbers as they did last quarter.

Always remember I am giving you a base line number
02-02-2011, 01:24 AM
SiriusBuzz

I feel safe in saying that Netflix will deliver 3 million at $9.99 per month with 14% margins. Why not Sirius XM? Seriously, I ask. Why does this company produce so few new subscribers each year?
02-02-2011, 02:20 AM
Havakasha

How about these possiblilities:
1.There are a large number of people that are still used to free radio.
2. There are a large number of people that still dont know much about satellite radio.
3. Almost everyone watches movies and tv; not everyone listens to the radio
02-02-2011, 11:14 AM
SiriuslyLong

Quote:

Originally Posted by john163888

I feel safe in saying that they will get (at least) 300,000 subs for the quarter. Now because of churn that will be higher then what we have seen so far, I dont expect the final subscriber number will be as huge as it was last quarter, even if they get about the same OEM numbers as they did last quarter.

Always remember I am giving you a base line number

Satellite Radio Playground had the number at 285,000, so you are certainly in a consenus area.
02-02-2011, 11:35 AM
john163888

Quote:

Originally Posted by SiriuslyLong

Satellite Radio Playground had the number at 285,000, so you are certainly in a consenus area.

I have been over at the "satelliteradioplayground", I have known cos1000 for at least as long as Tyler and missed writting back and forth with him.
02-02-2011, 11:37 AM
john163888

Quote:

Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz

I feel safe in saying that Netflix will deliver 3 million at $9.99 per month with 14% margins. Why not Sirius XM? Seriously, I ask. Why does this company produce so few new subscribers each year?

your problem is that you are not understanding the fact that even at 10.8 million OEM run rate SIRIXM not only ADDS subscribers it adds them while keeping all the rest of the metrics in great territory. That fact means that even in a bad economy OEM run rates will be enough to keep SIRIXM sitting pretty.

I will remind you that David Frear is calling for them to have 70 million cars with satellite radios in them (active and DEactive) by the end of 2015. Given that comment we then can say that he expects SIRIXM to have about 30 million subs by then and a FCF earnings of about a billion a year. That FCF number is easy when you consider both he and Mel have said (about a year ago) that most of the revenue from new subs from here on out will goto the bottom line. Now that is well over 6 times the amount of FCF then they are at NOW and while analyst say it is over valued at 1.4, they also say 1.2 to 1.3 is not over valued. SOOOooo do the math, if they earn over SIX times todays FCF in 5 years what are the analyst going to have to say in 5 years?????? Ho you are getting it aren't you?????? come on you know?????? Ho what the hell I will tell you...... 7.5 dollars a share. Now who here would not pay 1.2 a share NOW to make 7.5 a share in 5 years???? Here let me put it another way, where else can you get that kind of return on your money.

First you have to ask yourself can it happen. Well for that asnwer lets look at what David frear said and ask if that is logical. From what it looks like, it is very possible when you take into account he is only figuring that the OEM run rate will have to average 12 to 12.5 million for the next 5 years at the present penetration rate of 61%. As a matter of fact I would say Frear low balled his estimate. Next can they get 10 million more subs in 5 years??? sure seems like alot in just 5 years, until you realize that is half as many in half as long as it took them in the first 10 years. Also lets not forget while they may lose retail at a 12 to 12.5 million run rate and a take rate of 46%, that would mean 1.5 million new net subs a year. Now while that is only 7.5 million new subs that already takes out all-in churn and while all-in churn already includes lost retail that 7.5 million does not include any new retail or used cars that will generate new subs. It is the basic reason I say "AT LEAST" when I give my projection of new subs coming in the quarter and we have seen how low they have been. So in the final analysis, it is very probable.
02-02-2011, 12:03 PM
SiriusBuzz

That is great but, in a bad economy Netflix continues to grow its base at an alarming rate. Why not Sirius XM? IMHO Sirius XM's quarterly additions a far too low and a sign of consumer sentiment. I would like to see that sentiment change.

Quote:

Here let me put it another way, where else can you get that kind of return on your money.

NFLX. And it didnt take 5 years.