Why the Sirius denial?

I am curious as to why people get so mad about bad Sirius XM news being reported. As investors I would think that having all of the potential news should be useful to us all so, why is it that people continue to bash people who have been correct in the past and those who post valid points of views now?

For instance, today people jumped all over me for writing an article about how Sirius XM's marketing and direction is sub par (at best) and people call me an idiot. I know those same people in their heart of hearts agree with me and have even said so in various post around the net.

So, again I ask, why the hostility? The news is bad, I am not bad. Don't get mad at me for reporting the sad state that Sirius XM is in.

When the news is good, I write about it just the same... and you know what happens then? People call me a pumper. I know there are some passionate fans and shareholders that come here but, you can't have it both ways guys.

What Charles is saying...

Translation = "Don't shoot the messenger!"

People over committed to this stock and now they are mad at any news that is not in their favor. If this stock was at $20 per share none of these people would be bitching.

It's how you handled the articles. All of the other websites that posted the possible rate hike either finished the title with a ? mark (rate hike?) or started it with the word "Rumor". Your title makes it sound like a done deal.

The other article also states "why they will not survive", where as "might struggle" could have been more appropriate.

Hmmm, not jumping any bandwagon here but I have to agree... when I first came to the site tonight, I thought I was on the wrong site based on the news headlines.

I read headlines then skim stories to find out the jist of the story... fortunately I do that!

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Originally Posted by imromo24

It's how you handled the articles. All of the other websites that posted the possible rate hike either finished the title with a ? mark (rate hike?) or started it with the word "Rumor".

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Not all other websites did that a quick search turned up:

"The New Sirius XM Way: Less Service, Higher Prices"

"Sirius XM Rate Hike - But What About Those FCC Rules?"

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Originally Posted by imromo24

Your title makes it sound like a done deal.

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It is my firm belief that at this time it is a done deal.

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Originally Posted by imromo24

The other article also states "why they will not survive", where as "might struggle" could have been more appropriate.

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Why would I say that when I firmly believe that their lack of creativity and innovation leads me to think that they will not survive? I would be lying if I said that I thought it will simply lead to struggling.

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Originally Posted by homer985

I read headlines then skim stories to find out the jist of the story... fortunately I do that!

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I would hope that everyone would be smart enough to read more then headlines! Maybe I have too much faith in people?

All I know is that anyone who is invested in the markets is getting their asses handed to them. The unfortunate result is, running around and ripping off the heads of everyone around you, thinking it will make things better.


My only question is, how much longer will this go on?

opinion pieces can affect a stock, specially when u have a million opinion pieces saying similar things. Although im not one to try and censor anyone, a nice little question mark at the end of the title probaly wouldn't of hurt anything.

There was no question and I knew there was no question, I just could not prove it to you guys personally because of my sources. There will be a rate increase on March 11th.

As soon as I saw the article, it rang a bell. Correct me if I am wrong but, from what I remember years ago. The last time Sirius offered lifetime subs, rates increased after the offering for both SIRI @ XM.

I remember because I was salty over the fact that XM did not offer lifetime subs. Only Sirius.........

This seems very familiar to me.

Well Charles you got your due, nice "CONFIRMED" headline :)

I recently read an article in the NY Times that actually explained that 95% of all Headlines are read. Of those articles, only 15% are read past the headlines.

People make a split-second decision whether or not they are going to invest the time in reading the article, based on the headline.

I think (personally) the biggest mistake people make when writing an article is using the headline to "Summarize" the article as opposed to using the headline to "rope my interest in" to reading the article.

Dread, as I recall, Sirius has not increased their subscription prices at all -- only XM raised theirs from $9.95 to $12.95. Sirius has been at the $12.99 rate all along.

I do question Sirius' legal ability to do this, as I believe the wording in the language of the Report & Order is broader than most think, we shall see. I'm telling you right now, the NAB and others will be all over this as soon as it's official. As a shareholder, I'd be concerned about a Democratic led FCC and what they could do.

With that said -- looking at the raw numbers -- it is factually known that XM's "family plan" base had averaged around 22% for years (as most recently as Sept 30, 2008). Assuming that Sirius' penetration was a similar base -- then we're looking at approximately 22% of the entire 18.9 million subs (as of 9/30/08)... that would be approximately 4.1 million subscriptions that this would affect.

4.1 million x $2 is approximately $8.2 million per month... $98 million annually. That figure is based on subs as of 9/30/2008.

Making a couple of assumptions for 2009: That they do indeed start 2009 with 19.1 million subscribers and it grows to 20.6 million subs by the end of the year; and the family plan penetration starts at 22%, but declines to 20% by the end of the year (because of the price increase)... using a linear projection, gives me an increase of $99.9 million in increased revenue on the year.

Considering the company is targeting to have revenue of $2.7 billion for 2009 -- I don't see a $100 million increase as a ground breaking change to the business model. Sure it will help... but it's less than a 4% increase. It can't do much to buy back the maturing debt... maybe help offset increases in increased coupon on new debt, but that's about it.

I still question the legal ground to do this increase though... as I said before the merger was announced way back when, but weary of the NAB and others...


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Hottweelz, that's an interest post -- and accurate, IMHO. You don't see that much in old time news writers...

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Originally Posted by homer985

Dread, as I recall, Sirius has not increased their subscription prices at all -- only XM raised theirs from $9.95 to $12.95. Sirius has been at the $12.99 rate all along.




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Thats what it was!! Thanks Homer985, yeah rest assured the NAB will rear their ugly heads again.

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Originally Posted by imromo24

Well Charles you got your due, nice "CONFIRMED" headline :)

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I wish I could have used a larger font and made it bolder.

hundreds of emails today because that story and not one from a reader apologizing... strange? ;)

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Originally Posted by HottWeelz

I think (personally) the biggest mistake people make when writing an article is using the headline to "Summarize" the article as opposed to using the headline to "rope my interest in" to reading the article.

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Ditto.