Sirius Weekly Thread May 3, 2010
Good Morning All, :sunny:
Fridays ending of $1.18 with after hours at $1.20 ended the
month of April on a positive note. :)
Tuesday May 4 8:00am, is the scheduled Conference Call.
Really exciting is the pregame coverage by
SiriusBuzz and SatelliteRadioPlayground beginning at 7:00am! :popcorn:
With live coverage, insight and reactions from Spencer, Charles,
Demian, Newman and Cos. :clap: Be sure to tune in. Link can be found on the News page.
Good week everyone!
Julie
Schaeffer's Trading Floor Blog
. . . . "analysts are expecting a breakeven quarterly results from satellite radio specialist Sirius XM Radio Inc. (SIRI) after the close tomorrow. The company lost 7 cents per share in the same period a year ago. Historically, Sirius has been quite a disappointment on the earnings front, missing expectations twice, matching once, and besting the consensus once in the prior four quarters. As such, the company's average earnings surprise is a miss of about 78%.
With the stock's trading below $2 per share, options traders are naturally gravitating toward calls - as there is very little profit to be had from buying puts. As such, SIRI's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.18 indicates that calls more than quintuple puts among near-term options. That said, this reading still ranks above 88% of those taken during the past year, meaning that these speculative investors have been more bullishly aligned more often than not during the past year. Short sellers, meanwhile, increased their positions by nearly 60% during the past month, hinting at low expectations ahead of the company's quarterly report."
too bad Schaffers doesn't know what time the CC actually is . . . I would say that Schaeffers' average surprise miss as to the time of Siri conference calls is about 78%
Matt Hooligan still behind the curve . . . .
. . . and costing Wunderdich clients like Jon Pluc millions
Sirius XM Shares Inch Higher Ahead Of Earnings Tomorrow.
By Eric Savitz
Sirius XM (SIRI) shares are trading higher ahead of the company’s Q1 earnings report, which is expected before the opening of trading tomorrow. The stock this morning set a new 52-week high.
In mid-April, the company said it had 171,441 net subscriber adds in Q1, increasing the total to 18.9 million. The company also said at the time that it expected to report “solid revenue growth and strong growth in pro forma adjusted income from operations” for the quarter.
Several analysts provided upbeat pre-earnings comments today:
Wunderlich Securities analyst Matthew Harrigan repeated his Hold rating, but lifted his target price to $1.25, from $1. He adds that a sustained recovery in U.S. auto sales to the 12 million unit annual rate would push his valuation estimate up to $1.50. He expects Q1 sales of $672.9 million with EBITDA of $138.2 million and “essentially break-even” EPS. He estimates ARPU at $11.06, and subscriber acquisition costs of $64.36.
Barrington Research analyst James Goss this morning repeated his Outperform rating on the shares; he also see a break-even quarter, with revenue of $682.2 million Goss writes that one potential catalyst for the stock could be inclusion in in stock indexes that had removed the shares as the stock price tumbled. Goss keeps his $1.25 target.
Lazard Capital analyst Barton Crockett repeated his Buy rating and $1.35 target. He sees revenue of $666 million, adjusted EBIRDA of $137 million and a profit of a penny a share. Crockett thinks the company will raise its full-year 2010 EBITDA guidance from the current $550 million to $600 million or higher.
SIRI is up 3 cents, or 2.8%, to $1.21; the stock earlier set a 52-week high at $1.22.