Printable View
I took this from Yahoo Financial Page on SIRI:
Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq): 220.60M
Now, if they owe $250 million for the Feb converts, and they have $220 million, they only need to find another $30 million.
One would expect that they could do that!
Do yourself a favor and do not base anything on Yahoo's stats. They are showing Sirius-only stats for some items. Also, you are discluding certain lines of credit the company has. As of last quarter, the combined companies should have about 450M cash + credit lines.
JMM,
Thanks for your reply. This was meant as a positive comment to indicate that we should be able to meet the Feb. payment.
Your data indicates that we have more than we need for Feb.
However, if that is the case, why did we just dilute the company with the recent $50 million in stock exchanges?
If only we knew! I believe that is the source of most of the frustration. We just have no clue what is going on.
Keysmark
Keys,
The company had about $440mil at the close of Q2. We'll find out how much they have left next week. My guess is that they will have burned through 60 or 80 million with severance packages, legal fees, merger related costs as well as basic operating expenses. They can't spend all their cash on hand to pay the Feb converts, because they're not yet cash flow positive. They need the cash for operations, especially with the economy slowing. Most have been expecting a cash flow positive Q4, but with yesterday's bad news from GM - who knows.
I still think the "best of" packages and subscription renewals should push us into the black for Q4 - but Q1... that's a different story. We'll know a lot more after we hear what Mel has to say next week.
This was Sirius cash at the end of Q2.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keysmark
Where was XM at the end of Q2 and what did they both spend in this quarter and what will they need in 4th & 1st Q next year.
Understand they are still bleeding $, not generarting cash and on top of this, they have all this debt that is due and must be paid by way of selling shares and hopefully by some miracle getting a term loan for May debt. Even the December debt is going to be a bigger problem than Mel proclaimed because the economy is worse, car sales, retail look like they will be abysmal for a while.
when does Sirius announce their Q3 numbers ?
thanks !
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greenland
It must be next week sometime, but they have not released a date on a press release yet.
Sirius reported cash of $220 million and XM reported cash of $183 million, plus the $150 million GM credit facility; combined it is $400 million in cash and over $550 million in available liquidity -- as of June 30, 2008.Quote:
Originally Posted by sxminvestor
The combined cash burn has traditionally been in the $40~50 million range during Q3; but they did have some closing costs and the FCC fines to pay. It is likely that this will cause cash burn, I believe, up to near $100 million.
This will have left $300 million cash, plus the GM facility (and the Loral $100 million facility, for that matter too).
Q4 has traditionally been a strong positive FCF quarter for the combined company -- I see no reason for that not to continue this year, even with the slower economy. The tough part will be Q1 and then Q2 of next year, as the numerous severence packages continue to get paid out.
--------
Homer -Quote:
Originally Posted by homer985
First and 2nd quarter is where they need the most $. In addition, you mention 4th quarter being strong positive cash flow for combined co. I agree Sirius had strong cash flow last year, but not XM. XM was still negative cash flow, so combined and with the slow down, I don't believe it will be that good. Maybe XM had alot of one-time charges, getting out of AOL & Starbucks deals ?
Why do you think the severence packages kick in next year and not this 3rd and 4th, where layoffs and firing are mostly happenning ? Please explain.
Most of the negative cashflow in Q4 was XM getting out of several deals, which they had to buy out of. That is not indicative of what will happen this year, IMHO. And from what I understand, it was more than just Starbucks; there were others not publicized. Also, Q3/Q4 last year saw GM installing and selling a HUGE increase in vehicles with XM... that was very costly to XM on the SAC/CPGA front.Quote:
Originally Posted by sxminvestor
I believe Q4 will be better than many think. Remember, the killer for XM on their cashflow is paying GM on installs/sales. With GM crashing in sales, yes that will hurt XM on their sub numbers and somewhat on revenue -- but with fewer sales comes fewer SAC/CPGA charges. That aspect has been completely overlooked. This is a direct benefit to cashflow during the quarter.
As I recall, severance packages nowadays are paid out over time -- not necessarily all at one time. At least that's how my company does it now. I believe they last deep into Q1 for XM employees.
--------
Homer: If I recall correctly, severance packages are paid out over time (with an upfront chunk to help with shorterm expenses), but they are charged in the quarter that they are incured, much like stock options.
First and second quarter is where they need the most money, but that money does not have to be MADE in that quarter.Quote:
Originally Posted by sxminvestor
What homer is saying is that Sirius XM had 400 million in cash and another 250 mil in credit facilities. After Q3 (homer is predicting cash burn of 100 mil), they will still have 300 million in cash, and their available credit facilities. If they are FCF positive for Q4 (which I strongly believe they will be), this ADDS to that number. That way in March when they need the money, they will have WELL OVER 300 million in cash, because the FCF from Q4 will be added to that 300 million.
The main question that homer and everyone else has is how much cash will they have vs how much will they be burning through in Q1 and Q2, and will they need to hold on to that cash for expenses or be able to pay off the rest of the debt with cash.
In addition to the 1 billion in debt, they also have their satellite payment and launch coming up soon that will need to be insured and paid for... but thats what they have the Lorel facility for. That should cover the large majority of it, if not all of the remaining payments.