SiriusBuzz http://siriusbuzz.com All Things SiriusXM Satellite Radio Wed, 04 Mar 2015 16:24:56 +0000 en-US hourly 1 February Auto Sales At 1.25 million http://siriusbuzz.com/february-auto-sales-at-1-25-million.php http://siriusbuzz.com/february-auto-sales-at-1-25-million.php#comments Wed, 04 Mar 2015 16:24:56 +0000 http://siriusbuzz.com/?p=21001 → Read More]]> Auto sales in February were up over January, and up over what was seen last year, but overall there was disappointment in the air.  With record snow fall in many parts of the country,  auto sales were bound to be impacted.  Overall, auto sales were a bit above 1.25 million and had a SAAR of 16.2 million.  Analysts were looking for a SAAR of 16.7 million.

For SiriusXM, the numbers that were delivered were still decent news.  The satellite radio provider garners most of its subscribers from the trials offered to consumers when a new car is purchased.  About half of the cars sold last month are not counted as subscribers even within the promotional period.  The other half are counted as subscribers either when the car is manufactured or when the car is sold.

Analysts are anticipating that new car sales in 2015 could be as high as 17 million.  Last year sales were just below 16.5 million.  The growth is slowing a bit and the peak will happen either here in 2015 or in 2016.  Currently sales are at about 2.4 million in 2015.  In 2014, the first two months were at about 2.2 million.  Essentially, sales are about 200,000 ahead of last years pace, or about 9% better.

3-4 auto sales

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SiriusXM Beats The Street – Stock Hits 52 Week High http://siriusbuzz.com/siriusxm-beats-the-street-stock-hits-52-week-high.php http://siriusbuzz.com/siriusxm-beats-the-street-stock-hits-52-week-high.php#comments Thu, 05 Feb 2015 23:17:23 +0000 http://siriusbuzz.com/?p=20950 → Read More]]> support3SiriusXM announced its quarterly earnings today and the company did not disappoint.  Though it was already disclosed that the company had met or exceeded all guidance, the big news was that instead of posting the expected earnings of 2 cents per share, SiriusXM hit 3 cents per share.  Highlights included:

  • 2014 Revenue Climbs 10% to $4.18 Billion
  • Net Income Increases 31% to $493 Million in 2014
  • Record Adjusted EBITDA of $1.47 Billion in 2014, up 26%
  • 2014 Free Cash Flow Reaches Record $1.16 Billion, up 25%
  • $2.5 Billion of Stock Repurchased in 2014

SiriusXM’s quarter included record revenue of $1.09 billion and $4.18 billion for the fourth quarter and full-year, respectively.  Net income was $143 million Q4 and $493 million for the full-year.  This beat the previous year by a healthy margin. Net income per diluted common share was $0.03 and $0.08, respectively, in the fourth quarter and full-year 2014, versus $0.01 and $0.06 in the fourth quarter and full-year 2013.   SiriusXM’s Adjusted EBITDA was $381 million and $1.47 billion, respectively.

SiriusXM’s 2015 guidanjce is as follows:

  • Net subscriber additions of approximately 1.2 million,
  • Revenue of approximately $4.4 billion,
  • Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.6 billion, and
  • Free cash flow of approximately $1.25 billion.

The company now has 5,643,849,000 fully diluted shares as share buyback’s in 2014 continued.  The company bought back 739 million shares during the year and is committed to repurchasing another $1.7 billion worth of stock.  Overall, in the last 2 years, the company has retired approximately 1.3 billion shares.  SiriusXM has a healthy cash position of $147.7 million.

SiriusXM also reported stable churn of 1.8%, and improvement over the 1.9% we saw last year.  The company reported an Average Revenue Per user of $12.49 and a subscriber acquisition cost of $33 per share.  The customer service and billing expenses per average subscriber were $1.07, a slight uptick.

An item of concern in the quarterly report was the decline in the companies ability to convert trial subscribers to self-paying subscribers.  The conversion rate is now down to 40%.  This is the lowest conversion rate that I have seen.  the number is less of a concern when car sales are growing, but should be monitored by investors.  the conversion speaks to price elasticity and the “stickiness” of the product.

Last year at this time SiriusXM investors were in the throws of debate about a buyout offfer from Liberty media.  Ultimately Liberty pulled its offer off of the table.  ironically, the stock buyout was at about the $3.69 level we are currently seeing as a 52 week high.  Thus far, 2015 has not delivered any excitement on the Liberty media front, but has seen very positive auto sales.

From a technical standpoint, the new 52 week high sets up a bullish stance for SiriusXM.  In fact, the bullishness is such that a small run could be in the making.  Positive news going forward could stoke the fires.  The channel that SiriusXM has traded in all year is, for the moment, broken.  If SiriusXm can work through $3.75, there is a distinct possability of testing the $3.80’s.  For the first time in months the technicals are showing decent strength across the board.  stay Tuned!

 

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Matthew Harrigan Cautious On SiriusXM Earnings http://siriusbuzz.com/matthew-harrigan-cautious-on-siriusxm-earnings.php http://siriusbuzz.com/matthew-harrigan-cautious-on-siriusxm-earnings.php#comments Wed, 04 Feb 2015 16:31:01 +0000 http://siriusbuzz.com/?p=20948 → Read More]]> quarterly resultsAs conference call day inches closer, analysts are beginning to weigh in on the prospects of the Q4 earnings report from SiriusXM.  Wunderlich’s Matthew Harrigan is maintaining a Hold rating and a $3.50 price target.  While some investors may not like this rating, it is a prudent move on Harrigan’s part.  Many analysts wait until after the call to make bolder moves in models and assumptions.  Harrigan is looking for:

  • Revenue of $1.079 billion vs. street average of $1.8 billion
  • Operating income of $356.3 million
  • Operating margin of 33%
  • Free Cash Flow of $324 million

Harrigan sees some exposure to competition.  Manufacturers are seeking to expand on the “connected car” concept, and while that does not exclude SiriusXM, it does bring other players into the dashboard.  A key aspect of this for SiriusXM is locking up exclusivity where it can, and being as relevant as possible in other technology areas such as traffic, weather, navigation, etc.

Matthew Harrigan has traditionally been pretty accurate in assessing this space.  In my opinion the call will be well received tomorrow, but there will not be any earth shattering revelations that drive the stock price.  Auto sales in January were robust, so the start to the year has potential.  Stay Tuned!

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SiriusXM and PGA Extend Relationship http://siriusbuzz.com/siriusxm-and-pga-extend-relationship.php http://siriusbuzz.com/siriusxm-and-pga-extend-relationship.php#comments Wed, 04 Feb 2015 16:06:14 +0000 http://siriusbuzz.com/?p=20946 → Read More]]> pgaSiriusXM and the PGA have announced an extension to their contract which will give golf fans nation wide coverage through 2017.  The PGA has been a satellite radio staple for years, and though Tiger Woods is not the golfer he used to be, the sport still has plenty of passionate fans.  SiriusXM listeners have access to approximately 24 hours of live golf coverage each week, including hole-by-hole action and expert analysis on the only radio channel dedicated to professional golf.

“We are extremely pleased to continue our relationship with SiriusXM and bring comprehensive coverage and analysis throughout the PGA TOUR season,” said PGA TOUR Commissioner Tim Finchem. “SiriusXM PGA TOUR Radio has proven to be a tremendous asset to the TOUR by providing a means to follow the competition live when you’re traveling or otherwise away from the TV.”

“PGA TOUR coverage is an important piece of our sports programming lineup and we’re excited to continue our work with the TOUR to deliver our subscribers in-depth, high level broadcasts throughout the season,” said Scott Greenstein, SiriusXM’s President and Chief Content Officer.  “With on-course play-by-play each day of tournament play and commentary from some of the best voices on the air, this coverage truly brings listeners inside the ropes at these events, no matter where they happen to be listening from.”

Launched in June 2005, SiriusXM PGA TOUR Radio features a variety of broadcasters working on comprehensive play-by-play coverage, including former TOUR winners Mark Carnevale, Bill Kratzert, Mark McCumber, Dennis Paulson, Paul Stankowski and Phil Tataurangi.  Earl Forcey will once again anchor the coverage most weeks, with Fred Albers, Doug Bell, Will Haskett, Mark Immelman, Bill Rosinski and Tom Werme among those returning to provide exclusive play-by-play coverage and player interviews from inside the ropes.

The ability of SiriusXM to continue to wrap up content such as this demonstrates that satellite radio continues to be a main distribution channel for content.  In this digital age, one might think that organizations would explore more diverse opportunities.  As yet, this has not happened.  Each contract extension helps to further cement SiriusXM as an entertainment mainstay.

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January 2015 Auto Sales Start Off As Expected http://siriusbuzz.com/january-2015-auto-sales-start-off-as-expected.php http://siriusbuzz.com/january-2015-auto-sales-start-off-as-expected.php#comments Wed, 04 Feb 2015 01:17:58 +0000 http://siriusbuzz.com/?p=20943 → Read More]]> ford-edge_sport_2011_1024x768_wallpaper_01Analysts were expecting auto sales to have a SAAR of 16.6 millon and that is pretty much what we saw.  Overall sales for January of 2015 were 1,147,250.  This was a nice boost over the 1.09 million we saw 2014 start off with.  With a good start in January, we can anticipate that sales could climb as high as 17 million this year.

For SiriusXM, increasing car sales is always a good sign.  The satellite radio provider garners most of its subscribers and exposure from people buying new cars that are equipped with satellite radio.  About two thirds of all new cars incorporate satellite radio technology.

SiriusXM gets three distinct groups of subscribers from new car sales.  One group are manufacturers that pay during manufacture and thus these cars are counted as subscribers as they roll off of the assembly line.  A second group are cars whose manufacturers pay for a trial subscription when the consumer buys a car.  these paid trials are counted as subscribers.  the last group are cars where there is no payment made for the trial period.  These cars are not counted as subscribers during the trial period.

In January of 2015 we saw 38% of the cars sold from the manufacture group, 13% from the time of sale group, and 49% from the group where trial subscriptions are not counted.

2-3 siri1

The sales leader for January was GM, followed by Ford, Toyota, and Chrysler.  All of these manufacturers offer trials and install a high number of satellite radios.  As we move into February, we should anticipate higher sales.  last year February sales were nearly 1.2 million.  It is possible that we see well over 1.3 million cars sold next month.  this could mean that Q1 could see some impressive revenue numbers.  Stay Tuned!

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SiriusXM Super Bowl Coverage http://siriusbuzz.com/siriusxm-super-bowl-coverage.php http://siriusbuzz.com/siriusxm-super-bowl-coverage.php#comments Fri, 30 Jan 2015 14:16:46 +0000 http://siriusbuzz.com/?p=20925 → Read More]]>

1-30 super bowlSiriusXM, the Official Satellite Radio Partner of the NFL, has a long standing traditiuon of fantastic Super Bowl coverage.  The company offers up Super Bowl content from just about any language or perspective you can imagine.  On Sunday, February 1 (6:00 pm ET), SiriusXM will offer live coverage of Super Bowl XLIX from University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, AZ.

The various broadcasts are as follows:

  • New England Patriots team broadcast – Sirius 85 / XM 85 / Online 818
  • Seattle Seahawks team broadcast – Sirius 93 / XM 225 / Online 826
  • National radio broadcast – Sirius 88 / XM 88 / Online 88
  • Spanish language broadcast – Sirius 157 / XM 232 / Online 966
  • Hungarian broadcast – Sirius 136 / XM 231 / Online 965
  • Japanese broadcast – Sirius 138 / XM 227 / Online 961
  • French broadcast – Sirius 132 / XM 226 / Online 960
  • Portuguese broadcast – Sirius 134 / XM 230 / Online 964
  • Chinese broadcast – Sirius 135 / XM 229 / Online 963
  • German broadcast – Sirius 92 / XM 228 / Online 962

If you love the halftime show, you can that as well!  During the Pepsi Super Bowl XLIX Halftime Show, SiriusXM will offer listeners a broadcast of the on-field musical performance by Katy Perry with special guest performer Lenny Kravitz on SiriusXM Hits 1.

SiriusXM NFL Radio (channel 88) will broadcast live every day from the NFL’s Radio Row in downtown Phoenix, offering listeners the latest news and expert analysis, plus dozens of interviews with players, coaches, league executives and celebrities in town for the event.  SiriusXM NFL Radio features an unparalleled roster of hosts in town for the event that includes Gil Brandt, Tim Brown,Rich Gannon, Pat Kirwan, Jim Miller, Ross Tucker, Carl Banks, Takeo Spikes, Bob Papa, Alex Marvez, Bruce Murray, Howard Balzer and others.

In addition to SiriusXM NFL Radio’s coverage, subscribers will get special programming from SiriusXM’s other sports, entertainment and music channels throughout the weekend.  Go ahead, explore the dial.  This Super Bowl is anticipated to be the most watched television event in history, so it is highly likely the game will be talked about and discussed on many Sirius XM channels!  Stay Tuned!

 

 

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SiriusXM To Report Earnings http://siriusbuzz.com/siriusxm-to-report-earnings.php http://siriusbuzz.com/siriusxm-to-report-earnings.php#comments Mon, 26 Jan 2015 20:40:17 +0000 http://siriusbuzz.com/?p=20917 → Read More]]> quarterly resultsSiriusXM announced today that it plans to release full-year and fourth quarter 2014 financial and operating results on Thursday, February 5, 2015.  The company will host a conference call at 8:00 am ET on Thursday, February 5, to discuss these results.  The company had an impressive track record through the first three quarters of 2015, and with good auto sales in Q4 should have little trouble reporting a good close to the year.

SiriusXM has already announced that it has met or exceeded all guidance for 2014, so surprises are not really expected.  That being said, the company could be holding back a little information that could generate some buzz.  One item that the street will be curious on is how the share repurchase program is progressing.

The company typically reports earnings prior to the market opening, and this call is not an exception to that rule.  Analysts are expecting a profit of 2 cents per share on revenue of $1.08 billion.  The company reported a profit of 1 cent per share a year ago, so the headlines should serve nicely on a year over year comparison.  Stay Tuned!

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SiriusXM Passes Used Car Milestone http://siriusbuzz.com/siriusxm-passes-used-car-milestone.php http://siriusbuzz.com/siriusxm-passes-used-car-milestone.php#comments Fri, 23 Jan 2015 16:29:39 +0000 http://siriusbuzz.com/?p=20905 → Read More]]> cars_snow_5_1393423665SiriusXM today announced at the annual National Automobile Dealers Association Convention and Expo in San Francisco that it has surpassed 15,000 auto dealers enrolled in the SiriusXM Pre-Owned Program.  This program is designed to give SiriusXM another shot at activating satellite radio’s in used cars.  The program offers a free trial to buyers of these cars.

“The SiriusXM Pre-Owned Program launched in the summer of 2011, giving auto dealers the opportunity to provide subscriptions to all of their customers purchasing satellite equipped vehicles.  Major OEMs have supported the program with their franchise dealerships, and many of the nation’s top auto dealer groups have followed with 100% of their locations participating in the program,” said Joe Verbrugge, Senior Vice President and General Manager, Automotive Remarketing and Retail Sales, SiriusXM. “We are thrilled that there are now more than 15,000 dealers that have taken advantage of this no-cost program, giving their customers access to SiriusXM’s unparalleled lineup of commercial-free music, plus premier sports, comedy, news, exclusive talk and entertainment.”

Customers purchasing any pre-owned vehicle with a factory-installed satellite radio from a dealer enrolled in the SiriusXM Pre-Owned Program will receive a three-month subscription to SiriusXM’s “All Access” package.

In addition, the SiriusXM Service Lane program has surpassed 6,000 dealers enrolled since the program launched in 2013.  Dealers enrolled in Service Lane can provide a 2-month subscription to SiriusXM’s Select package to qualifying customers who have their satellite radio-equipped vehicles serviced.

The concept here is simple.  The company has already paid to install a satellite radio receiver into a car.  Subsequent owners of that car may be experiencing satellite radio for the first time.  The program gives a second, third, or even fourth life to the satellite radio.  New customers that come out of this program are very profitable because the cost side of the associated radio was absorbed previously.  SiriusXM has made a concerted effort in maximizing potential by tapping into this new pool of potential subscribers.

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December Auto Sales Close Out 2014 Strong http://siriusbuzz.com/december-auto-sales-close-out-2014-strong.php http://siriusbuzz.com/december-auto-sales-close-out-2014-strong.php#comments Fri, 09 Jan 2015 16:11:01 +0000 http://siriusbuzz.com/?p=20879 → Read More]]> 1-8 siri2Auto Sales in December of 2014 closed out the year strongly by bringing in sales of 1,502,505 units.  This is a decent jump from 1,354,000 units sold in December of 2013.  For the entire year auto sales came in at 16,437,067 units, more than 900,000 vehicles better than the numbers of the previous year.  As 2014 started there were bullish hopes that sales could get to 16.5 million.  While that target was not hit, sales levels were certainly in the ballpark.  December was the third best sales month in 2014.  The strongest month was August, and the second strongest month was March.

The mix of manufacturers as it relates to SiriusXM was interesting.  48.58% of the cars sold this year were from manufacturers that offer an unpaid satellite radio subscription.  Unpaid trials are not counted as subscribers while on the service, nor as de-activations if they do not keep the service.  If, after the trial, the consumer elects to keep SiriusXM, they are then counted as self-pay subscribers.

38.67% of the cars sold in 2014 were from manufactures that offer a paid trial to the service.  These cars are actually counted as subscribers when the vehicle is manufactured.  They will count as de-activations if they do not keep the service, and will transition from the category of subscribers in promotional periods to self pay subscribers if they keep SiriusXM.

The last category are manufacturers that count as subscribers when the consumer buys the car and is in a promotional period.  This category accounted for 12.76% of the cars sold in 2014.  These are counted as promotional subscribers during the free trial.  If they do not keep the service they are counted as a de-cativation.  If they keep SiriusXM, they shift to self-pay subscriber status.

1-8 siri1

As we shift into 2015, expectations are high.  Analysts are anticipating that sales could reach a 14 year high in 2015 with sales coming in at over 17 million vehicles.  Some analysts are even looking at numbers as high as 17.5 million.  This would bode very well for SiriusXM in that the company relies on new car sales in a big way to gain market penetration.  Stay Tuned!

 

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SiriusXM Adds Subscribers – Hits All Guidance Metrics http://siriusbuzz.com/siriusxm-adds-subscribers-hits-all-guidance-metrics.php http://siriusbuzz.com/siriusxm-adds-subscribers-hits-all-guidance-metrics.php#comments Wed, 07 Jan 2015 15:11:24 +0000 http://siriusbuzz.com/?p=20872 → Read More]]> up arrowSiriusXM has announced that it ended 2014 with 27.3 million subscribers, representing an addition of approximately 600,000 subscribers.  This represents 1.75 million net subscriber additions during the year, which exceeded the company’s increased guidance of 1.5 million net additions. Self-pay net additions in 2014 were 1.44 million, which exceeded the company’s 2014 guidance of 1.25 million and resulting in year-ending self-pay subscriptions of over 22.5 million.

In addition, and perhaps most important, the company also announced that it expects to exceed its 2014 guidance for revenue, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow.  In essence, SiriusXM had a very successful 2014 on most every front.

“SiriusXM performed very well in 2014, exceeding our 2014 subscriber and financial guidance, even after pushing most of these targets higher during the year. With more people than ever subscribing to satellite radio, we expect the company’s strong performance to continue in 2015,” said Jim Meyer, SiriusXM’s Chief Executive Officer.

In addition to releasing this positive news, SiriusXM also issued 2015 guidance for net subscriber additions, revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow:

  • Net subscriber additions of approximately 1.2 million,
  • Revenue of approximately $4.4 billion,
  • Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.6 billion, and
  • Free cash flow of approximately $1.25 billion.

In looking at the 2015 guidance, we can see that it is pretty close to what the company ultimately outlined for 2014:

  • Net self-pay subscriber additions of approximately 1.25 million,
  • Revenue of approximately $4.150 billion,
  • Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.425 billion, and
  • Free cash flow of approximately $1.120 billion.

In essence, the company is projecting more modest growth in certain areas than some may want to see, but we need to remember, we are looking at numbers in the billions.  SiriusXM is projecting $250 million more in revenue, about $175 million more in Adjusted EBITDA, and about $100 million more in Free Cash Flow.  These types of numbers can give investors confidence that the company can continue share buybacks or even look for buyout opportunities.

With the company essentially beating all metrics in 2014, the stage is set for a good year in 2015.  As a much more mature company now, SiriusXM is at a point where investors can be confident that numbers are being hit and that the business model remains not only sound, but robust as well.  The connected car, which was a fear that some had about SiriusXM, has not really created an issue for the company, and in fact, SiriusXM has embraced the technology and even added value to its business with services beyond radio.  Stay Tuned!

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