Debate about the strength of the auto recovery continues for auto sector analysts, but the analysts that follow satellite radio have now been pretty much clued in on the magic of the 1 million cars sold number. This means that as those that follow the sector continue to update their models, that there is another reason to be a bit bullish on Sirius XM.

There does still exist a hint of conservatism due to a very slight cut in manufacturing announced by Ford, and hinted at by others. Still, there is plenty of room for maintaining that 1 million per month pace. The distribution of manufactures as it relates to Sirius Xm is in a good place as well. Just over 36% of the cars sold in August provided subscriptions at the time of manufacture, with one third providing subscribers at point of sale, and the remaining third at post three month trial. The mix of “Leading”, “Point of Sale”, and “Trailing” is important because it keeps the flow of subscribers into the pool constant.

With September now here, consumers should begin to focus more on the 2011 model year, and sales could benefit as people that have been waiting may pull the trigger on a newer model year while the bargain hunters will be searching out dealer lots for 2010 leftovers. With inventories being more tight, the deal seekers may have to pull the trigger earlier or see all of the 2010’s disappear.

Two months of 1 million cars sold will certainly deliver great metrics for Sirius XM Radio. It is the auto channel that is the primary conduit for subscribers, and subscribers that deliver revenue growth for Sirius XM. With a solid August in the books, the assumptions that Sirius XM would beat their guidance becomes more realistic. The question is how long it will take that fact to get into the share price.

Stay tuned to SiriusBuzz for an update on what type of deals auto makers have planned for September.

Position – Long Sirius XM Radio

Stern is a calculating individual, and more likely than not he is raising issues as part of the negotiation process. As news begins to spread that he may leave, retire, or take his career in another direction, there could well be some real good shows and guests in the future.

Stern has had some great guests over the years, and some others that people would love to see interviewed on the show. If people think that Stern is singing his swan song there could well be a built up demand to appear on one of the fifty or so shows remaining. It could wind up being like people wanting to appear with Johnny Carson before he retired. Having a Stern interview on your resume is something that could become fashionable.

In addition to guests, Stern could want to set up some great shows and stunts that will put an exclamation point on his career. Is it possible that he could finally persuade Eric The Midget to fly with balloons? The possibilities are endless, and the uncertainty of his contract status could be the mechanism to get some compelling shows on the air.

All of that being said, I think we will see Stern return, albeit with a shorter work week. The key is getting him included on the mobile platform. Stern mentioned possibilities of his own app, and while fans would appreciate that, it is important for Sirius XM to make that process available through their service. Look for that to be a key negotiating point for both parties.

Stern has options, but in the end he has made a home on satellite and in my opinion will continue his contract. From a consumer standpoint I want these negotiations to drag out and deliver great radio. From an investors standpoint, I want to know the status as soon as possible. Is there a happy medium? Perhaps we will know between mid September and mid October.

Position – Long Sirius XM Radio

Listeners can participate in the show by calling in to 347-945-7995.

Satellite Radio News Show #70

Position – Long Sirius XM Radio

The yen to dollar ratio has a huge impact on Japanese companies. The ones impacted the most are those that export. Toyota, Nissan, and many electronics companies are hard hit because a surging yen takes away profits. Japanese companies have a more difficult time being cost effective to the countries where they export. Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan has suggested that decisive action is needed.

For investors, this news carries general importance because the economy is now global. For satellite radio it means that the American and European auto companies have a chance of maintaining the market share gains they have made in the first half of the year. With sales seeming to have climbed to an average of 1 million units per month, the issue now boilds down to how those sales are divided up. Different auto manufacturers carry different types of deals. The biggest Japanese manufacturers deliver subscribers only after a trial period. Toyota, saddled with recalls has already struggled this year in the U.S. auto market. A bigger rise in the yen, combined with yet another recall could make the balance of 2010 a hard year for the company.

Watch the wires throught the day as news about what transpired at the meeting should begin to filter out.

Position – Long Sirius XM Radio

This past Thursday my Motorola Droid broke and essentially became useless to me. A hard reset did not work, and my only option was a new phone. I went into a Verizon store, and saw advertisements for Pandora as well as Slacker, and NOTHING about Sirius XM. When I got to the counter I noticed a page of bar codes that a droid user could scan with their droid to get some of the “coolest apps”. There was Slacker with their very own bar code. No Sirius XM.

My new phone automatically pulled over all of my apps from my account….EXCEPT THE SIRIUS XM app. Why? Because as of this date Sirius XM’s app on Android is STILL NOT IN THE APP MARKETPLACE!

As most readers here know, I follow Sirius XM closely. Here is what I had to go through to download my app.

1. Go to Sirius.com
2. Type android into the search box
3. Enter my email for a “Free 7 Day Trial”
4. Wait for Sirius XM to send the email
5. Open the email, and click the link to download the file.
6. Search the downloads folder on my droid
7. Locate Sirius XM app and press install

How many people unfamiliar with Sirius XM are going to take these steps? How many people that already have an on-line account are going to get “tripped-up” by the “free trial” lingo and simply opt not to do it? How many people are going to take their phone and scan the Slacker logo? Ho many people are going to search the Marketplace for apps, and if Sirius XM is not there, assume it is not available?

The fact of the matter is that Android is 2010’s best selling smart phone line. The Android platform has even dominated Apple this year! Why is it that MONTHS after the launch of the Sirius XM app, it still can not find its way into the app Marketplace where consumers look for the apps that they want? Sirius Xm can have the best content in the world, but if it is poorly marketed it will fall onto deaf ears!

How does a droid user get Pandora?

1. Open up App Marketplace
2. Scroll to Pandora, or type it in the search on the marketplace
3. Press the install button

It has been all over the news that services like Pandora are getting a huge response from the smart phone market. One key reason is that they are in the market place and their sign-up process is simple, understandable, and concise. We all know that smart phones are going to do more and more. I understand that signals drop at times, and I understand that Internet pays higher royalties. Neither of those shortcomings is going to stop people from buying smart phones and trying to explore music on them.

It is unfortunate that Sirius XM seems so behind the curve in this arena. The Sirius XM apps all function as they should, and deliver the audio content. I would like to see more features on the apps, but more importantly, I think they need to get their collective butts into the app store on each service. Another suggestion. Throw out the 7 day trial and make it 30. You have one chance to get the attention of someone. Make the most of it and let them explore the full line-up!

Position – Long Sirius XM Radio

Sirius XM has had anemic volume for a couple of months now. With the yellow school buses getting set to roll, we may have a ray of light coming. I already anticipate that Sirius XM will have a good Q3 given the auto sector numbers, and while the economy is not yet fully recovered, people are beginning to take a peek back at their portfolios and find what they perceive as a bargain. Sirius XM has spent the summer in a trading range between $0.90 and $1.10, and at this writing the equity sits in virtually the same place.

Over the next month or so there are several factors that will impact the markets. The summer lull ending and the mid term elections are two key components that investors should watch for. Without getting into a political discussion, the fact is that, traditionally, when republicans win elections the markets tend to respond well. The republican party is seen as more pro-business, and typically the markets react well to such news. There are many already seeming to indicate theat the republicans will gain seats in these mid term elections. If throughout September the summer lull begins to disipate, and if polls are indicationg a shift in Washington, the markets could be set to stabilize and begin a new climb.

It will be interesting to what happens with the summer lull over the next few weeks, and even more interesting to see how the markets react to the elections. With Sirius XM, I believe there is solid footing above $0.90 and that pending news can finally help boost the stock as more and more eyes begin to follow the markets again.

Position – Long Sirius XM Radio

SIRIUS|XM wants to send you to Las Vegas to check out the finals for the Budweiser “Band of Buds” contest. Like anything Budweiser does, this event will certainly be something to remember!

Enter for your chance to win a trip to “sin city” along with three of your best friends. Grand prize includes airfare for four to Las Vegas, four nights’ hotel and an invite to all the “Band of Buds” finals events during your stay! Listeners do not have to stop at just going to the event. You can enter Budweiser’s contest as well, and mabey even leave Vegas $100,000 richer!

It’s multiple nights of parties, fun, dancing and hanging out with your best buds! If anyone is looking to add a bud to their list….add me.

What are you waiting for? Start putting your buds list together and enter!

The National Association of Broadcasters has now issued a statement in response to a letter sent by several wireless industry representatives to the Chairmen and Ranking Members of the House and Senate Judiciary Committees. The groups expressed their opposition to the adoption of a radio receiver in cell phones.

Commenting on the letter, NAB Executive Vice President of Communications Dennis Wharton issued the following statement:

“Countries around the globe have added radio-enabled cell phones that are increasingly popular with consumers. The reality is that 239 million Americans tune in to free and local radio every week, and seven million new radio listeners were added just last year.

“Day in and day out, local radio stations serve as a reliable lifeline in times of crisis and weather emergencies. In an increasingly mobile society, it would be unfortunate if telco gatekeepers blocked access to public safety information offered by free and local radio.”

While FM inclusion may be a good idea in theory, a mandate for inclusion is something that I am opposed to. My opposition has nothing to do with me preferring satellite radio over terrestrial radio. In my mind such a mandate goes against everything that capitalism sytands for. My opposition would be identical even if Sirius XM were trying to pull this stunt. If FM radio is such a necessary and popular feature for cell phones, more of them would join Nokia, which has a few FM enabled models.

What I feel is happening here is using “public safety” to posture for mandating a feature that will save terrestrial radio money. If cell phones have to have FM, it is more likely that people will use the tuner to listen to radio rather than the data network. Royalty rates are higher for streaming content. If terrestrial radio is successful, they would have a distinct advantage over any other audio entertainment service that is paying more in royalties to stream music to phones. There is a reason that this issue came up in the midst of negotiations with record labels about royalties.

Position – Long Sirius XM Radio

At stake is the ability of the FCC to enforce decency standards that could vary depending on who the alleged offender is, or who is in power at the FCC at any given time. The Second Court ruling came in regard to a suit against Fox which was appealed to a higher court, and then sent back down to the Second Court.

FCC General Council Austin Schlick stated, “The FCC and the Justice Department are today asking the federal court of appeals in New York to reconsider its decision in Fox v. FCC. The three-judge panel’s decision in July raised serious concerns about the Commission’s ability to protect children and families from indecent broadcast programming…The Commission remains committed to empowering parents and protecting children, and looks forward to the court of appeals’ further consideration of our arguments.”

The issues raised in this court battle are the very same arguments Sirius XM’s Howard Stern have been making for years. It will be interesting to see how all of this pans out.

Position – Long Sirius XM Radio

Sirius XM is broadcasting special interviews with artists that will be participating in the show. The interviews give fans an inside look at electronic music, and a chance to learn about new artists and schedule which shows and venues they want to go to. Sirius XM limited run Electric Zoo Radio takes listeners inside the world of electric music each Thursday up until the actual event.

If you are planning on attending the Electric Zoo Festival then Sirius XM’s Area (Sirius 38 – XM 80) is the channel to tune into each Thursday. For additional information visit the official Electric Zoo Festival page.

Position – Long Sirius XM Radio