Satellite radio stocks SIRI and XMSR are seeing yet another up day to continue the recent upward trends. On to of good technical metrics, the street seems to be jumping on board in a big way. This morning the SDSARS sector saw a boost from CNBC’s Jim Cramer as well as analyst Tom Watts of Cowen.
Cramer was very bullish this morning, citing that Sirius is a “double” if the merger passes, and that even if it did not pass, Sirius is the stronger equity to be invested in and that the downside risk is small.
For his part, analyst Tom Watts is very bullish on the merger, and feels the odds are better now than they ever have been with possible approval as early as October. Report Excerpts:
Stock Can Appreciate XMSR/SIRI Merger Likelihood of Approval Best Ever – Expect October Deal
Tom Watts, CFA Conclusion: The market has increasingly reflected the high chances of approval we outlined in our Feb 20 and Mar 12 notes. Several catalysts have narrowed the arb spread notably to 11.8%. With the FCC’s rebuttal period closed, positive momentum from supporters, and a strong precedent from the Whole Foods merger, we expect FCC approval before Dec. 4, the end of the FCC review period. We believe approval as early as Oct. is possible.
? Merger Approval More Likely Than Stock Price Suggests. SIRI/XMSR’s arb spread has narrowed to 11.8% from 20+% just a few weeks ago. While many view this as an indicator of deal potential, we believe this spread can be even lower. We believe both stocks can outperform based on the cont’d narrowing of this spread over the next 1-2 months.
? Stock Can Appreciate on FCF Alone. As we have said before, we believe both stocks can outperform the market even without a merger, based on FCF potential alone. Both co’s posted stronger than expected Q2 OEM net adds, improving churn, and increasing margins, demonstrating both co’s high operating leverage and march to positive cash flow.
? Long Term Potential Attractive. Maintain Outperform. OEMs are ramping install rates. Churn, SAC and CPGA are coming down, while ARPU from service and ad revenue is increasing. We expect FCF growth from XM and Sirius to be substantial. on FCF Alone. As we have said before, we believe both stocks can outperform the market even without a merger, based on FCF potential alone. Both co’s posted stronger than expected Q2 OEM net adds, improving churn, and increasing margins, demonstrating both co’s high operating leverage and march to positive cash flow.
Tyler Savery Position – Long Sirius, Long XM