Be careful what you you wish for, you just might get it. Everyone waits in anticipation of Commissioner Tate's decision. Speculation runs rampant. Traders want a decision to cash out on the expected rise in the stock price. Arbitrage players wait to cash in on the spread. But what about the investors? People like myself who are investing in these companies for the long term?
Much ado has been made of XM's 1 billion dollar debt. When the deal was announced back in February of 2007, the value of the deal was nearly 5 billion dollars and priced Xm at a high of about 18.00 a share. The deal has been reduced now to approximately 2.7 billion dollars....A 2.3 billion dollar savings to Sirius investors! At this price Sirius investors are getting a GREAT deal!
We have heard from Copps, Adelstein, Martin & McDowell. If Tate's vote for the merger was made public this afternoon, the stocks of both companies would presumably rise precipitously. This would continue until the official vote at which point Sirius investors would be paying a lot more for Xm, followed by a sell-off as traders cashed out.
Ironically, the best case scenario for Sirius investors is in fact Tate's silence up until the official vote. The best case scenario would be a Friday announcement of a completed vote following the markets close. This would enable the board to meet and close the merger over a weekend, and the following Monday morning XM shares would no longer exist. The deal would be done.
Following 17 months of waiting for a decision, patience and tolerance now more than ever, may be in the best interests of Sirius investors, as an official vote may come by the end of the month. 7 days is certainly worth the 2.3 billion dollar savings.
Position: Long Sirius, XM.