Comments on: Citi: Sirius Xm “Massively Undervalued”

By: Sailboat

Sailboat — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 18:16:35 +0000

Brandon,
Always look forward to the blogs published here and thanks for keeping us poor retail investors up to date with the latest news.
Phil Roth

By: Sirius Roadkill

Sirius Roadkill — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 18:08:05 +0000

So lets say Citi is correct . . . how does getting taken-out by private equity at, say $1.95, sound?

If the current SP is too low relative to value: private equity.

If the current SP is too high relative to value: further decline in share price.

If the current SP is correct relative to value: indefinitely range-bound.

By: investor

investor — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 14:45:34 +0000

I totally agree with Citi’s outlook, but they are also blemished badly by their calls on Countrywide last year, not to mention not being ablr to manage their own business as another poster mentioned.

By: investor

investor — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 14:39:25 +0000

Can Mel come out & put a conviction sell on GS

By: rjr

rjr — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 14:36:12 +0000

My guess is that GS will now issue a scathing report with a new target of .75.

By: Brandon Matthews

Brandon Matthews — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 14:35:42 +0000

SiriusXm investor…I do now…thanks, I’ve added the info tto the article.

Jon….whatever….

Dugie….I’m sorry, but I do not have a link. It is in a citi client report this morning…

By: mario

mario — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 14:34:55 +0000

Nobody listens to Citi because they are in worse shape than anyone. If they can’t even get their own shit together then what good could their advice be?

People listen to Goldman because they are still, or were still, doing well. This is how the street is.

But, I do agree more with the Citi note than the Goldman crap IMHO.

By: Dugie

Dugie — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 14:33:44 +0000

Brandon,
Can you provide a link to the CITI article?
Thank you.
DD

By: Jon

Jon — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 14:30:06 +0000

Nothing is going to happen until they pay off the blood money they took to get the merger done. IMO, a combination of the uncertainty of how much the money will cost the repay the converts and the constent shorting by the people (and I use that term losely) who own the shorts is keeping the stock down.

The good news is the Mel ralizes he needs to get that debt paid off becasue he told Cramer he is working on it.

By: SiriusXMInvestor

SiriusXMInvestor — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 14:23:52 +0000

Did you have the rest of the note?

SIRIUS XM Radio, Inc.

AAPL Stream Underscores New Opportunity

* Value is in the Content – Reports of a new internet streaming
application that would allow SIRI users to get content on their
iPhones and other portable devices are now emerging and
highlight that SIRI’s value lies in its content and not its
hardware or infrastructure. We maintain that SIRI will
continue to gain share in the audio entertainment industry as
it offers long tail content that is proprietary, unique, fresh,
and simple. The fact that about 50% of new OEM customers still
elect to pay for satellite radio despite the challenging macro
environment supports this view.
* A Little Help from AAPL – While AAPL is generally perceived
as a competitor to satellite radio, the streaming application
underscores that it may complement and help satellite radio as
the new application would: 1) eliminate SIRI radio costs; 2)
help generate new subs at a lower cost (albeit with a higher
royalty rate given the internet streaming); and 3) likely
improve the ability to purchase tracks from AAPL.
* It’s Not Black and White – SIRI bears argue that AAPL’s
products will take share from SIRI, but we disagree as both MP3
players and satellite radio have unique advantages that leads
us to believe both will co-exist. New satellite radio plans
create a greater opportunity for synergies between the two.
* Buy SIRI – The stock has been hurt by the difficult macro
backdrop and auto production slowdown; however, we believe SIRI
is massively undervalued as investors fail to appreciate the
size of merger synergies, the opportunity for top line
improvement with new plans, and the benefits of greater OEM
penetration.