Channel Changes A Positive For Investors
In an article I wrote previously, I eluded to the fact that the recent channel consolidation of Sirius XM had many benefits, yet I only touched on one due to the fact that other news overshadowed my original thought process.
The first benefit I mentioned was that it made the service easier for the general public to follow. Having an identical service on any GM, Ford, Honda, Chrysler, Toyota and every other make and model sold in the United States makes the end user more likely to continue the service. This should lead to increases in subscriber retention.
Having said that, most investors know the lowered costs that will be associated with the new format, yet the big picture is being missed by most investors. Those who have the service may have noticed an increase in the number of quality advertisers on the non-music channels.
Every channel now has double the listeners, and that is a huge plus for Sirius XM going forward. Sirius XM advertising just became more attractive to quality companies who want to reach a larger audience. Prior to this move, each service had about 10 million subscribers, and advertisers could only reach a portion of that pool at any given time. Sirius has consolidated that listener pool to 20 million and as such I look for a large increase in ad revenue.
Investors need to remember that this is what Mel Karmazin has been expected to do. He has a created what some have termed a satellite radio monopoly. He is creating a media company that has excelled in an environment in which all other media is faltering. He has managed to increase revenues despite the worst economic crisis that most of us will live through.
Ad revenue last quarter rose 6 million dollars over the same quarter in 2007, and yet its only up 7 million for the full year. This indicates to me that we are seeing dramatic increases in advertising revenue since the merger, and this is actually the first full quarter of the combined company. I expect that the ad revenue number will increase dramatically in this, the final quarter of 2008.
| (in thousands, except per share data) | 2008 | 2007 | 2008 | 2007 | ||||||||||||
| Subscriber revenue, including effects of rebates | $ | 456,357 | $ | 226,844 | $ | 978,516 | $ | 627,275 | ||||||||
| Advertising revenue, net of agency fees | 14,674 | 8,524 | 31,413 | 24,422 | ||||||||||||
| Equipment revenue | 11,271 | 6,290 | 25,290 | 17,216 | ||||||||||||
| Other revenue | 6,141 | 128 | 6,590 | 3,337 | ||||||||||||
| Total revenue | 488,443 | 241,786 | 1,041,809 | 672,250 | ||||||||||||
Position: Long Sirius XM.








I only listen to a few channels that were not effected.
I am really surprised at the heat they are getting over this.
Since I don’t know, Is it really that bad?
If it was that is the last thing this company needs at this time, to piss off subscribers.
imho
vaporgold
Media stocks and advertisers do well in poor economic environments. I recently wrote an article that explained my position. A business without a sign, is a sign of no business. More money is put into the most effective advertising mediums in a poor economy because competition for discretionary dollars intensifies.
16 cents??
Brandon,
Regarding “Channel Changes A Positive for Investors?” Have you bumped your fucking head or are you a party to the scandal that appears to be taking place here. Have you been stranded on a deserted island for the last 3 months. “This pig is tanking and you continue to pump this POS? Give me a break. What’s your take in this to keep on pumping sunshine up everyone’s ass. Well, there it is, I said it and I don’t think I’m alone in thinking this eithe. It’s time you came clean.
Hip Hop Nation is not censored, listening right now and yep its dirty like I like it.
Geronimo.
Thanks.
Socal
GetItStraight writes:
“All current metrics are showing that advertising is not increasing. It’s actually doing quite the opposite. Many retail analysts are expecting the trend to continue for the forseeable future.”
The problem with your post is that 1) Best of Both just started at the begining of October (which is Q4) and the channel changes just happened this past week (Also Q4). Of course the metrics that were just released show declining ad revenue at this time, but NOW in Q4, they may start to improve because of these two changes. I say MAY, because it may take a quarter or 2 for Sirius to sell bigger name advertisers (Best Buy, WalMart, McDonalds, etc) on the concept.
As you state, ad sales in general will be abysmal for the next 6-12 months, but as Brandon is pointing out (and I am trying to help strengthen the case), advertisers are hurting this year and are going to try to have a decent Q4. They dedicate a certain amount to advertising every year, generally divided by quarter or shopping season. The Christmas season is the most heavily advertized season, and even if ad dollars do decrease, they will certainly be better for the quarter than previous quarters. As Brandon states, they are going to be looking for the most influential and wide spread advertising available, and next to TV, Satellite Radio would certainly fit that bill. I think Ad revenues surprise for Q4.
GetItStraight: Reread your post, not sure if you were talking about Sirius ad revenue or advertising in general, but the above post hits both points either way.
How much longer can you say siri long. It would take a 1000% increase for the luckiest owner to break even. They have no money, leadership or business plan. walter long island ny
This new channel line up sucked. Geronimo said it right earlier. Sirius is like the titanic sinking, very slowly. Also, I hate bpm, bring The Beat back. BPM=Bad Programming Move. Hate you mel and hate you jon.