Car Sales Crash
It is hard to believe, but then again it isn’t. It appears that once again car sales are down. In most years, the entry of Fall means that there are car deals everywhere as dealerships try to sell off the remaining of this years models to make room for next years. This year, the situation differed greatly. Auto makers have cut production, closed plants, and have inventory that simply does not warrant a huge sale. The customers that do come to shop are having an increasingly difficult time getting their financing, and thus many are simply opting to hold onto their existing wheels.
For satellite radio watchers, the slumping car sales is simply another negative piece of news on the stock. Yes, the penetration rate of installations is increasing, but month after month sales continue to decline. Because the OEM channel is the subscriber driver for SDARS their is a direct correlation between auto sales and the number of subscribers announced in any given quarter. Poor auto sales means fewer subscribers trying out the product.
On the positive side, self pay churn for satellite radio has been stable throughout these tougher economic times. People are feeling financial strain, but they seem to be maintaining satellite radio subscriptions at a pace that equates to past experiences.
While not all manufacturers have given numbers as yet, a few have:
- Nissan – Down 37%
- Ford – Down 35%
- Toyota – Down 32%
- Honda – Down 24%
- GM – Down 16%
With disappointing numbers well into the double digits, it is little surprise that the overall perception of the economy is not good. In the near term, the auto sector may not see a decent recovery until 2009, and even then, it is a question of how long that recovery will take. Satellite radios will continue to be installed, and subscribers will continue to sign up, but the rate is slowing, and the situation with new car sales does not help matters.
Sirius Buzz will publish our monthly sales report as soon as all data is available.
Position: Long SIRI, No Position OEM’s
Then we should be suspicious of today’s 16% gain. Based on the dire car sales numbers, Sirius should have been down today. It was down yesterday when the DOW was up almost 500 points. Up today on a down market day and bad car sales numbers. This is further proof of the daily manipulation of this stock. I watched for hours as the stock hit .65, and 100 shares were sold at .6299 every time. Those 100 shares were sold on the CINN which has been on the top of the bid and ask for weeks. Someone is controlling this stock and not letting it run. I have asked Blalock to hire an investigator who is an expert in this field of stock manipulation.
thats why we need the uptick rule in place set it to .05 at the minimum. It boggles my mind that all this screaming of the bailout and the uptick hasnt been reinstated. Again it shows the SEC in bed with the big boys.
Fully agreed
Where is the SEC? Is this the reason SIRI has been dropping like a rock on the close all those days? Free market?
http://www.marketwatch.com/new.....dist=msr_1
Nasdaq cancels Google trades, cites errant ‘routing’
By John Letzing, MarketWatch
Last update: 6:24 p.m. EDT Sept. 30, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Following a confusing late slide in shares of Google Inc. Tuesday, the Nasdaq Stock Market canceled a block of transactions in the stock and reset its closing price, citing the mistaken routing of trades from another exchange.
Market data initially showed a more than 10% slide in Google (GOOG:
411.72, +11.20, +2.8%) shares just before the closing bell, bringing its closing price to $341.39. The sudden move was remarkable, because there was no apparent news related to Google to prompt it, while other technology shares generally closed with gains.
Shortly after the market’s close, the Nasdaq said that it was canceling certain trades in Google executed between 3:57 and 4:02 p.m. Eastern and resetting the stock’s closing price at $400.52.
A Nasdaq spokeswoman said that, “the errant trades were triggered by orders routed from another exchange to our market,” but declined further comment.
Google shares rose in after hours trading, to $415.
John Letzing is a MarketWatch reporter based in San Francisco.
I just had to stick my head out the window to check for flying pigs….
Apparently the STREET DOT COM wrote an article that says the Auto slow down SHOULD not affect Sirius!
WHA? WHA? WHAT??!!!!
Seriously. They said Sirius should easily Buck the auto slowdown and be able to weather the storm.
They even ended the article saying that should Mel get a favorable refinancing of the Feb debt that the stock could be headed back to $4.
DOES CRAMER KNOW ABOUT THIS ARTICLE?
Lol.
Lemme check on those flying pigs again….
They spent $100 million on the merger they can spend $25,000 to find out who keeps fucking the company. I sent Blalock the website of the investigation firm last week. They are based in NYC and handle this type of stock manipulation. Do you agree this would be money well spent? Perhaps maybe there is a conspiracy between Mel, CBS, Clear Channel, FCC and GS to take out Sirius. I don’t trust anyone anymore. Greed is the root of all evils in life. If I were the CEO of a company that has 88% of its value by shorts, I would damn want to know who was behind it.
It strikes me as odd that GM is down only 16 percent, while others are all down in the 30 percent range. What advantage did they have over the others? Seems to me that GM was stuck with tons of unsold Escalades and other behemoth gas guzzlers. Maybe GMAC financing has been more forgiving in their approval of credit apps. Anybody know if that is true? Chrysler’s numbers must be too embarrassing to release.
I have a few answers…I hope for sirius investor. First of all, if you have been trying to figure out how logic plays into this stock price, you are a crazy full.
Ok, now to the ultimate driver of share price, revenue which is directly correlated to subscriptions.
Subscriptions will rise even with deminished production/sales because of two reasons.
1. Penetration is more important than sales. If sales drop 16% but available satrad increases by 20%, there will be a net addition of subscribers. This increase will drive revenue up and theoretically share-price as well.
2. When people buy a new car what happens? In many situations the old car goes to the used car inventory. When people buy a used car they are generally upgrading. This means that when a new car is purchased, there is an opprotunity to gain two subscribers. One in the new car, and one for the person who buys the used car.
Penetration is king in this industry. When the market becomes saturated, revenue could easily be around 4.5-6 billion per year…
the ability for new car buyers to borrow has really been a problem–You all saw the largest GM dealer in the coutry file chapter 11 and close–They were responsible for over 2 BILLION a year in sales for GM–The owner said he couldnt obtain financing for car purchases and leases–If this is true and credit is really drying up–the trickle down effect will be massive–
Who is doing that at the CINN? Is there any way to find out? Why do their 100 share blocks get priority? How can all those trades go through below the bid and the ask and tank the stock so fast at the close? How do they get priority with their trades to call the close? Something seems really fishy……how have they been doing this? Isn’t something crooked going on? Is it legal? How do they do that? Shouldn’t the SEC take a look at this? Isn’t the manipulation obvious? Can anyone shed some light on this?
frigg, thanks for the report. That is crazy as hell. The Street – cutting against their own grain. Weird. Its good news for us and it will generate clicks for the SOB’s. I’ll break my boycott and go there now and read it with my own eyes!
I know exactly what is going on. Someone is buying and selling the stock to themselves. Therefore manipulating the price. Pure and simple. The question is who is doing it. For about $25,000 we can find out.
Hey Seriousinvestor. I’m all for bashing Mel. I love and hate the guy in equal measure…and have no problem unleashing the full wrath of my fury upon the guy when he deserves it. Which is often!
But I kinda draw the line at conspiracy theories of Mel being in cahoots with the NAB. I mean, Mel going thru 4 years and then 17 months of congressional hearings just so he could merge and then secretly destroy both companies is as FAR FETCHED and ABSURD to me as those that believe 9/11 was an inside job and that the towers were brought down by a controlled demolition. Puh-Lease.
Bush couldn’t tie his shoes let alone pull that off.
So yeah…BASH away at Mel. Even worry or fret that he may try to wipe the debt by declaring chapter 11. But as far as him having planned this over 4 years with the NAB? Not buying that. 🙂
Is that legal for them to buy and sell stock blocks to themselves to manipulate the price? Why is it coming from the CINN? I looked around on the internet and it seems that there have been many concerns about the lack of regulation and manipulation at the CINN.
This smells more fishy the more I look into it…….
Why don’t we all call the SEC and complain about the blatant obvious manipulation? Would that do anything?
“1. Penetration is more important than sales. If sales drop 16% but available satrad increases by 20%, there will be a net addition of subscribers. This increase will drive revenue up and theoretically share-price as well.”
Here is my guess. SIRI and XM have now suddenly disclosed that they are abandoning one of the greatest cost savings “synergies” they touted as a reason for the merger. And that was brand recognition and brand building. One has to ask yourself. Why would they chose to continue dumping money into a ‘brand name” that in theory. You are going to abandon? That is simply throwing good money after bad.
I mean they were in such a hurry to close the merger that “in theory”. Mel tied the shareholders to the stake and burned them so that he could get the merger closed as quickly as possible. Now that it is done. Suddenly, they want to continue to “investing” in both brand names. ¿¿¿¿¿
Here is one possibility in my opinion. By keeping the two brands seperate, you get twice as many subscribers.
For example. You have an SIRI OEM Promo Subscriber whose new car receives only SIRI technology based content. But, that receiver can now receive “Best Of XM” content. But, it comes at an additional cost to an actual subscriber, but not necessarily the PROMO Subscriber.
Well, that single car can now be counted as 2 subscribers. One for the Promo SIRI content, and one for the XM “Best of” Content. And if it has NavTraffic. Well now you get 3 subscribers. Equiped with SIRI TV? That’s 4 subscribers.
My viewpoint is that by keeping the product as separate entities. You can claim more subscribers for each Promo equiped vehicle that is sold.
PCSTEL
Lets think about this. Wouldnt GS benifit more if serius shares eventually go up. They are making a killing on the short but at some point they will go long. They own a ton of shares and Im sure they are getting more at this absurd manipulated price. We all know Cramer is GS’s puppet. Maybe this article at the street.com is just the beginning of GS whipsering in Cramers ear.” Jim we have another task for ya. We’re gonna go long on siri. Do what you do best Jim. Do our bidding and slowly start pumping Siri. Just my opinion.
PCSTEL….you are right on with your reasoning for WHY it’s good at this point to keep the Sirius and XM brands separate.
Until TRUE interoperable radios are available, it’s the perfect way to generate the extra revenue with the BEST of option.
But I still think they can advertise as one. To LINK the two companies in the public’s mind is IMPORTANT. It creates a positive buzz that SIrius XM radio is HUGE and it’s the FUTURE.
I for one can’t wait for the TRUE interoperable radios…then you will see them truly merge as ONE entity. But in the meantime, they can promote the best of using the separate brand model while at the same time BEGINNING to link them as a combined company.
But I have a question….WHEN if EVER will Sirius change it’s stock ticker name from Siri to something like SIXM or SRXM?
I remember someone saying that by changing the ticker symbol ALL current shorts would be shaken out and forced to cover. Is this true? And if so, WHEN would be the most “Strategic” moment for Mel to make such a name change?
Hey….not that I’m jumping up and down like a giddy schoolgirl or anything….but has anyone else noticed that Sirius is up 14% after hours to .67 cents.
Hey…I’m just glad to be out of the 50s. And at least it’s in the high end of the 60 cent range.
Wonder what will happen with the Bail Out Bill tonight and what if ANY affect it will have on Sirius tomorrow.
PCSTEL
The street even says the penetration bids well for SiriusXM. Also, Pres Bush signed today a 25 billion package for the automakers.
That will be a shot in the arm for automakers.
All we need now is some type of correction with the bailout package, which will free up some more Money for auto loans, a new loan for the Feb debt and we could start to climb out of this basement.
vaporgold
There is also a reinstatement of the R & D tax credit attached to the new financial bill. Could free up 20 million for Sirius XM.
Seriousinvestor…
I would love to know whi is placing some of those orders at the close, and you is short selling, and who is naked short selling.
I was a big supporter of Mel,lately I have been very frustrated as to no news from the company to stockholders, not much concern about the share price, etc. etc.
I don’t think Mel would crawl into bed with the NAB. He might let the stock drop to .20 and sell the whole company to Microsoft or Google. I hope not.
I hope we start the climb up again, but all of you know not to get your hopes up to high with this company after the last couple of years.
And I don’t trust anybody anymore either
vaporgold
Hey Friggin
Up 14%….Let’s all go to Disney World….Wait…Shit still down 60%! Well it sounds good. Maybe next week!!!
PCSTEL…
Your right promoting the two brand names does not hurt. As long as they buy one or the other.
Just throwing this out there for long term consideration… News Flash: Feb. 2013 Sirius sells XM to Google for 900 Billion including the XM Sats.
never say never
vaporgold
Also, tonights fast money episode mentioned tax breaks for media companies also..
Trust me….I am not celebrating the fact that we are still down 60%!
And I wouldn’t go to the evil kingdom of the giant rat even if Sirius popped to $10 a share over night. 🙂
Every 10 cent move at this point is HUGE. Believe me, it brings me no joy knowing we are still below a buck. When I think about that I get depressed.
Just pointing out a positive move today. I find it funny that yesterday when the market rallied….Sirius plummeted. And today when the market Lost some of it’s gains….Sirius gets a pop. Interesting considering the negative auto sales news.
Sirius needs a bailout for what FCC did to them.
500 million loan from government should be enough and they can the balance themselves. The gov’t does not want to take responsibility for what they caused, do they ?
7:05 pm vaporgold Says:
The street even says the penetration bids well for SiriusXM. Also, Pres Bush signed today a 25 billion package for the automakers.
That will be a shot in the arm for automakers.
All we need now is some type of correction with the bailout package, which will free up some more Money for auto loans, a new loan for the Feb debt and we could start to climb out of this basement.
***************
What I’ve been pondering is this: A buyer needs a minimum of 640 credit rating to get a mortgage. I don’t know what metric the car dealers use. If its anywhere around 640, there will be few buyers no matter whether the money is there or not. Same goes for the bailout. There is no requirement for banks to loosen the credit, In fact, banks will be rewarded via interest payments from the fed on their cash reserves. (Thats cash on hand not loaned to customers.) The bailout insures that banks are rewarded for NOT lending money.
For anyone talking about manipulation investigations… a private shareholder with a large enough interest in this stock could/should hire a firm to investigate this I imagine? Why wait for Mel and the slow pokes?
Would be nice to peel back the onion and see who is pulling the levers. Is that public information? I don’t know the innards of the trading system.
nice to see genral motors beat the rest!!
I believe Mel and company know who is manipulating the stock. He just chooses to be silent. This is like someone walking into your house while your sitting on the couch and allowing this person to walk out with your personal property. This person comes to your house everyday and removes your valuables while you sit there and watch. You say nothing.
How about these news flashes I hope to see soon……
“SIRI secures financing – ups guidance for 2009 and 2010 due to strong demand for new content packages and radios – shares surge”
“SIRI gets buyout offer – shares surge”
“SIRI/XM content now available on iPhone and iPod Touch”
“SIRI reports synergies way ahead of schedule – guides for cash flow positive ahead of schedule”
“Apple to include SIRI/XM receivers in new iPods to boost slumping iPod sales”
“SIRI hits a new 52 week high on better than expected earnings”
“GS upgrades SIRI on financing news”
“SIRI to launch local programming in selected cities after new law passes to promote competition in local radio content”
“Warren Buffet takes big stake in SIRI – sees long term growth – shares surge”
“SEC cracks down on manipulation of SIRI – shares surge”
“Cramer and Wienkes arrested for manipulation of stocks with GS – SIRI shares surge”
“New SIRI/XM iPods sell millions – SIRI flooded with new subscriptions”
“Mel Karmazin voted CEO of the year – compared to Steve Jobs turn around of Apple”
“SIRI added to GS conviction buy list – shares surge”
“SIRI shares surge on rebounding auto and retail sales”
“New line of SIRI/XM work radios released – expected to fuel workplace demand for sat radio”
“Apple and Google in fierce bidding war for SIRI – shares surge”
“SIRI voted most admired American company”
Any others you guys can think of?
“Sirius needs a bailout for what FCC did to them.”
Simply a case of “no good dead goes unpunished”.
I personally was surprised at the relative speed that the FCC assigned to the whole issue.
The problem was, that shareholders expectations were set too high by SIRI/XM management in providing unrealistic decision completion dates.
The problem for XM/SIRI is that it was not simply a “decision for or against a merger”.. The merger required “Rules Changes” in order to proceed. Sure XM/SIRI pleaded for simple “Adjudication” in the determination of the requested rules change. But, as I had written earlier. That would have never happened. So that required the issuance of a NPRM.
The problem is that your management, and analysts either didn’t have a clue or chose to ignore the reality of the FCC’s NPRM Processes.
Average time the FCC takes to make a decision on a NPRM is ~700 days. Once the NPRM was issued. You management should have tempered your expectations as to the reality of the situation.
Heck, Globalstar went Bankrupt waiting for the FCC to render a decision on Terrestrial Flexibility of their spectrum. That decision on the NPRM took ~740 days. They failed to attract funding that would have been available if the NPRM had been passed in a time frame similar to that of the SIRI/XM NPRM. None of the shareholders liked the reality of the Bankruptcy outcome, but it was well publicized by management that they given the normal NPRM issuance timelines, that they held little hope for the resolution of the NPRM in a timeframe to stave off Bankruptcy.
Your consternation with the FCC is based on the facts that industry professionals and your management should have provided you with realistic expectations as to the resolution of the issue once an NPRM was issued. They failed to do so. In addition, shareholders should have taken the initiative to research the realities of the NPRM processes.
In the end.. You can expect a BK filing and Mel and company walking away with a large ownership in the debt free reincarnation.
And so it goes,
PCSTEL
Yawn.