Brandon’s Call
I was talking with a friend who works for Deutchse Bank and his wife this weekend. We were all in agreement regarding the overall market and economic conditions being nearly catastrophic. He mentioned to me that he just needed to figure out what to recommend to his clients, and we all got a little laugh, (although a cynical one) out of it. That indeed is the problem, and I’ve spent days pondering the answer.
I revert back to my technical analysis and sector rotation. It is so imperative that anyone invested in any equity understand sector rotation. Imagine if you will a “football field,” with the end-zone on the left being the 0 yard line and the end-zone on the right being the 100 yard line. Stocks that are at the 0 – 20 yard represent sectors that have been oversold. Stocks in the 80 -100 area are stocks that have been overbought.
Over-sold<——————————–>Over-bought
0—10—20—30—40—50—60—70—80—90—100
Downside risk<————————–>Upside Potential
When a sector reaches those high 70,80 and 90% areas, its potential upside is diminished and downside risk becomes much greater. Conversely, when a sector hits those low numbers, it downside risk becomes minimal, and its upside potential becomes greater and more attractive.
Here’s the first problem. Nearly everything is oversold now, with the exception of commodities and perhaps gold stocks, although those seem well on their way to joining other sectors at the left end of the field. The question becomes, which sector or sectors will lead in the next market uptrend?
The government has yet to figure out that the way to spur the economy and end another depression before it begins is through job creation. When Reagan brought us out of a recession, it was through jobs that were created during the cold war in aerospace and defense. Hoover and FDR did it through construction in infrastructure and the Hoover Dam. The Clinton years brought us technology. The next Government funded projects for the sake of the country’s financial health will be in my opinion, alternative energies; yet that scenario will take a year or more to begin to play out. No economy can prosper on Walmart salaries.
So today, as I was driving home and listening to CNBC on Sirius, a commercial caught my attention. It was a commercial for Advil. Immediately I recognized this as a new advertiser. I then recalled a statement by Mel Karmazin recently that mentioned his desire to offer a low priced solution to advertisers. Mel, your a genius! You may not know crap about stocks but did you ever bowl me over today!
“That’s it!, I exclaimed to myself.” MEDIA stocks will lead the next market! Allow me to be the first to call it. As companies look to lower costs they will seek out less expensive advertising solutions. A business without a sign, is a sign of no business! Consider help wanted ads, “for-sale” ads and such. Companies that want to survive will be looking for low cost ad solutions, and companies that provide these solutions to corporate America on a national scale will benefit the most. Media such as Sirius XM will thrive, provided of course, that it can survive the current credit crisis.
Positions: Long SIRI
I guess I caught friggens disorder. lol. Shoot me now.
How bout the uptick rule? They need to do everything they can asap.This should have reinstated back in May. Mexico is starting to look good for a way out of this fucking rat race. Tired of the pigs,crooks,politicians,SEC FED etc. Hard working folks like us always get the shaft.
That’s the problem with averaging down or selling and buying more shares at a lower price.
You wind up buying more for less and it goes down and now you lost even more.
The mathmatics go against you unless it goes up. I feel if I can maintain my present cash value with the stock going down and down by selling and waiting, then if it comes back I’m a big winner.
But what if it goes as low as .25 and you buy in huge and it goes to ZERO.
1 share or 100,000 shares at .25 = 0
But Mel is cutting costs big time and I still believe he will find a way to weather this and not have to re-organize where stockholders get cleaned out.
Revenue is rising for them even in this market and costs are coming down, which is rare in this type of atmosphere. At least I believe this is the case unless we go into a deep, deep recession or depression.
And I guess that’s why stock is so low.
GS SAID IT WAS GOING TO 50 CENT ISNT THAT TO MUCH OF A COINCIDENCE, THEY HAVE TO BE DOING THIS.
To those talking about Cramer and his talk of sell….
Cramer simply wants everyone to liquidate their stocks, so his hedge fund buddies can pick them up on the cheap and get an instant capitulation rally pop. IMHO.
Hey, will you kind people respond to my posts over in the forums? i feel like I am talking to myself over there. How come you people never post over in the forums?
how do we know if Mel is cutting costs, he hasn’t said anything and I don’t see anything different with the channels. XM and Sirius still have their own stations, they need to come out with intercompatable radios and discontinue all these fuckin stations. Y can’t they just send Sirius signal to the XM radios and wipe out all of Xms’ operations. That will cut some costs.
The way I feel right the only thing I enjoys about all this is the porn posted in the fourm
Xm sux anyway, I had a sirius receiver from best buy in my car, but I got alot of static so I activiated my XM that was installed in my car with the best of package, it blows. Xm has commercials on its music channels, I guess that is good for advertising revenue but I dont want to hear commercials. I had a friend in my car this weekend, I try to promote the company to everyone so they get more subs, my friend heard a commercial on the music channel and said “what the fuck is this, you pay money to hear commercials, I’m not activating a radio to hear commercials”
Chizzle,
They need to find what channels and programming work best together without alienating any of their customers. The music programming on XM is way better for the most part. The playlists are much deeper too, without being too weird. XM strikes a good balance……you don’t always want to hear overplayed songs over and over. The magic of hearing a song you haven’t heard in 15 years or one you have never heard before is really worth something…..and just playimg popular songs over and over doesn’t allow this too happen. SIRI plays it too safe and XM music programming is far better.
I have both XM and Sirius………..
I just read an article about the Fed making an emergency move to lend money to companies directly (not just financial institutions). Do you think SIRI has a shot at being one of those companies? I mean c’mon, they played a big part of screwing up our chances at financing with their prolonged investigation. Here is the article. I am curious to see what others think?
That would be so sweet, not to have to worry about this refinancing all the time.
Zach. I totally agree on your Cramer take.
I noticed tonight that Jim Cramer recommended Hershey, I know, who cares? His reasoning was that HSY was going to increase advertising and stated that companies should be looking to advertise more when times are tough rather than decrease spending.
Cramer me boy, I beat you to it! Buy the underlying commodity, in this case media stocks…
The best co’s in the world need to advertise, and I called it. Sit back and watch…and buy media…
Brandon,
It seems you are stopping short of saying buy Sirius XM ?
Hello everyone,
First I have no ulterior motives except to say I was in/out of Sirius about a year ago then just forgot about it.
I am now going to weigh in on why I am getting back into Sirius (long).
Learn:
I was playing day trading (more like week trading) in/out of WAMU in my IRA. Haha, guess what? I sat watching in horror as the FDIC siezed the bank in after hours. I sprinted to my computer and sold my 10,000 shares which I paid around $2 share for was now worth .16 cents a share. I promptly sold and moved to NCC and worked it up to 2k where I sit now.
I highly advise you not to play this game in your IRA. You guys run a high risk of following in my foot steps. Even with Sirius, even with the bailout coming, does not guarantee Sirius will be able to refinance.
Especially if they go bankrupt – They are done and it makes perfect sense for them to go and do a Chapter 11 and simply restructure.
Now, I will get in with my 2k which is not my main account and buy 4k shares and hope for the best.
I hope some of you will learn by this. I hope if you are doing the day trading thing you don’t leave your funds in this stock overnight and have to go through the same kind of experience I did.
Well now I am getting into Sirius now because:
1. Risk is mitigated by the low price
2. Some analysts give it up a thumbs up including S&P with a four star rating.
3. I believe in the “Mel” factor. Not to mention he has millions of shares.
4. Sirius is one of the top short interest stocks in existence. (You can add whatever conspiracy theory you want and yet the Company must prove it does not deserve this low price)
I hope (I won’t say think because I really don’t know) that when the Company improves and Mel announces they have indeed secured financing this stock will begin it’s climb back to respectability.
Nevertheless I urge you all not to play the “get rich scheme” with your IRA’s. There are too many other good stocks on sale right now. Not to mention that this type of mentality will usually get most of us burned over time. It did me.
Peace out,
Ted K.
brandon,great perception!
lots of frusterated posts on all blogs, where is mel.?
for good reason , you don’t realease good news on a rainy day, or in this case , a huge storm.
he understands the market enough not to make this mistake.
the stradgety here also allows the lender to make big $ .
aka,accumelate siri @ .50 or lower, float good deal, int. etc. & make huge $$ on your/their own good news, hence jacking stock up 150/200% on your own/siris own good news.
untill this finanical storm somwhat clears, we have a great oppertunity to ave. down.
the long term winners in this, the longs , and the new lender , one in the same!
Average down Holden. Maybe when this nuclear bomb clears. Averaging down is what all of us have said created these great portfolios we have. No, I say liquidate. Friggen we were all taught to hold which we did through the merger. Right now with Japan and China down 7% this thing is on a death spiral. We will be able to buy this stock another day for much less, imho. Mel will not be here to the rescue anytime soon.
Today in Asia will be a day never forgotten. Phillipines halted trading. Ever been to a gas station before a big weather event is heading your way. That’s what people are doing with whats left of their stock holdings. And let me say. No way do people like us jump right back in to this market. They made a big mistake by letting Bear Stearns and Lehman go down without a plan. Investor confidence is gone and panic is rampant. Get you money out in premarket if possible and leave this nightmare alone. Think people are going to run back to this gambling run by liars and thieves. All they are doing now is covering Goldmans ass. The top guys are all from Goldman. Wednesday will be one bloodbath and there is nothing any government agency can do but halt trading. I only hope my cash in etrade is still withdrawable. Yee friggin haw.
Next up will be defaults by companies unable to make payroll. Cities defaulting. Pension funds underfunded and forced to sell more holdings to meet standards for equity. It’s an accounting crisis, and we’ve yet to fix the accounting measures that made this mess. Cities think that property taxes will be coming in. Yeah right. It’s like a Sirius stock nightmare that took over the country. Two years ago they said soft landing in the housing market. No concern for the people whose lives were in the housing market because GS, Lehman, Merrill JPM weren’t in it yet. But oh, they forgot their subprime holdings. At some point soon many companies will be unable to hold out and will be forced to layoff huge numbers of payroll to make their current payroll debt. Think the consumer is going to save us. You only get out of this by job creation. Haven’t heard a word about that. Numbers today show consumers have stopped even using their credit. We will remember 2008 for a long time.
They will write…………..In 2011 we are still 3,000 pts from the 2008 high. Just like 2000 with the nasdaq.
I sold 1/2 my position on another stock tuesday…not because I wanted to, but because my margin call kept getting bigger and bigger, and another day like yesterday without taking the protective action would have destroyed my portfolio causing me to be forced to sell everything, including sirius. however, I did NOT sell sirius because it seemed relatively stable, relatively is a relative word.
I foresee further home defaults and credit card defaults as a result of the collapse of the stock market. I saw the housing collapse coming, but did not connect the dots that it would lead to a stock collapse, my bad.
socalrunningfool, if the money you have invested in the stockmarket is money you need to be liquid in near term then yes you should liquidate. the stock market is not for you.
there seems to be an instant gratafication generation here who has no clue to what the simple rule of the begining of whealth is, saveing money and not stepping up to risks till your own world is on solid ground.
iv’e made my $$$$ in realestate,comercial/apartment buildings and it does’ent come easy or happen overnight.
i sight siri as a fixerupper in a good nehiborhood during a buyers market.
to all of you that are micro on the sp day in and day out , take a vacation already,look the other way, afterall , if you were so sure of yourself when you entered this equity why would you question it when the company has bettered from that time?
ask your self this, is warren buffet a day trader?
When do you all think Sirius will announce or get a refinance deal for it’s Feb debt?
Obviously BEFORE Feb…DUH! Lol.
But when before?
How many people think it will be by November 18th? Why November 18th? Because thats the day I leave for Rio Brazil. I sure would love to hear some news by then. 🙂
Friggin…
YOU may not want to hear this but…
In these bad times with all world markets…it’s better that Mel remains silent. Any news he could tell us would be over shadowed by the rest of the market shambles. Better he keeps it under wraps until the current market cools down from the chaos.
Asia closed down big time in all the markets and europe is opened down…We need to brace ourselves again today for possible lowere siri open/close.
I added 500 more shares today at .50 and now avg at 1.29 on 8500 shares.
Friggin
…maybe won’t announce financing until after 3Q reporting release to see how market reacts from reduced losses.
Honestly MY ONLY FEAR is if they file for BK at anytime. I will hold on for long term.
AGAIN, Have you all forgot about Mel. He is a very very SMART man. Stay calm and sit back and watch….Mel will make the shorts squirm and the long wave….My money is on Mel and not on the current market…..as they said in animal house, “All is fine, just stay calm”…
For what it’s worth, Mad Dog UnLeashed is now available for internet listening. Definately positive news. Not earth shattering or anything but positive nuntheless…Maybe our gripes and requests are being heard by the right people?
I’m glad someone at Sirius was listening. I sent several emails and spoke to IR several times about putting Mad Dog on the internet stream.
.45 cents is 1/3 of 1.35 (where Mel bought)
unbelievable.
He must be pissed himself, no ?
Mel “Colt .45” Karmazin should make a speech wherein he says if anyone who bets against him gets screwed, its not his fault. Oh wait…Nevermind.
3 – 4 weeks more of abuse before 3Q CC.
For the sake of accuracy Mel bought 2,000,000 shares at $1.37 per share. I bought 1000 shares at $1.33 bringing my cost average to $3.00 per share. Mel’s average is around three dollars per share.
Mel’s investment in SIRI is probably a very small portion of his wealth, so I don’t think it matters much even if he loses it all.
Dow Jones Media Report. Seems a lot are of the buy side opinion. I had no idea I was read by so many!
I held off on buying today…anyone think we might see twenty five cents?
My prediction the shorts will be moving back into financials tomorrow and hopefully get off of Sirius.
Ted K.
Mel do not give a shit
Even if Sirius Bankrupt and he looses it all. He will restructure and get a new 8,000,000 stock options at Zero buy.
For him is replacing old stocks with new ones and a smile that he screwed us all out of our lifesavings
This stock is not reacting rationally at all. It is acting like a company that is falling to pieces at the seams and the fact is that they are streamlining, improving quality of content, sound and hardware & have additional sources of revenue that should gain steam over time.
Mel will likely cut about 1/2 billion in expenses (he stated 425M)
The lower price point offerings should eventually spur demand for a certain segment of people.
The problem is that if your out of the stock when the financing is made public, then it’s too late for the big % move from here.
What’s the bottom dammit !
I know somebody will say 0, but it can’t be.
QUESTION…
Does anyone know why so many 100 share transactions in after hours on nasdaq today? Those are 45.00 purchases + broker fees?
siriushope…
manipulation.
Or is it just penny investors thinking the stock will go to $ 10 and they can make almost a whopping $1,000 ?
Thanks Brandon..when do you predict manipulation will stop?
will uptick rule have any effect of manipulation?
Any day GS is going to lower their price target to .25 and say the economy is worse than they expected.
I would never believe it to be possible, but never say never with the new lows.
Got in a chunk of shares at .49 & now almost ready to bail again and wait – this sucks.
sirius hope…
the manipulation will stop when siri announces the debt restructuring. Until then, I hate to say it, Cramer was right.
As for the uptick rule, it really won’t matter now that the stock is at .50. The damage has been done.
Thanks Brandon for your response, understanding and insights as always.
I am in, and part of the party now. Win or lose we will soon see the flash of light. Whether it be similar to the flash of a nuclear bomb and our investment destroyed or the dawning (and cheering) of a new sunrise.
amibankrupt – Why not give Mel the benefit of the doubt and have faith in him?
SXMInvestor- Goldman Sachs has problems of their own. The shorts were punishing GS this morning. On options Friday (next Friday) look to buy this at an all time low.
Ted K.