Comments on: BOA’s Jacoby Issues Satellite Radio Note

By: SiriusIntentions

SiriusIntentions — Thu, 27 Sep 2007 20:18:20 +0000

85% chance to merger price. So why is it now 3.40 is the 85%.
Or the math another way is taking
2.25+0.85*(SomeFinalMergedPrice-2.25)=3.40
that final merged price is then 3.60 so why is he saying 2.75.
Either way the math is inconsistant on a basic level which means:
Time to issue a new stock target price. Plus if he uses 3 billion in synergies (1.5 to siri) rather than 150 million (which is completely retarded) then you get another 80 cents so really I think Jacoby’s analysis leads me to believe that his target is 4.40-4.50ish.
Thanks for the bullish report Jacoby.

By: SiriusIntentions

SiriusIntentions — Thu, 27 Sep 2007 20:17:16 +0000

Also, Another funny thing is didn’t he say:
2.25 no merger price
2.75 with merger price or with 50/50 discount (I can’t remember, but even if it was 50/50 discount that means that 3.25 is full merger price)
Currently:
2.25+0.85*(2.75-2.25)= 2.675

By: SiriusIntentions

SiriusIntentions — Thu, 27 Sep 2007 20:15:57 +0000

Currently:
2.25+0.85*(2.75-2.25)= 2.675

By: Tyler Savery | Satellite Standard Group

Tyler Savery | Satellite Standard Group — Thu, 27 Sep 2007 19:24:52 +0000

Bruce,

The quotes In my story are direct from Jacoby’s report.

By: SiriusIntentions

SiriusIntentions — Thu, 27 Sep 2007 17:17:26 +0000

Also, to me this means that if you discount the merger at Jacoby’s 30% but use the assumed synergies of 3-7 billion (the range of estimates, but siri said they could be as high as 9). The price should be much higher.

By: SiriusIntentions

SiriusIntentions — Thu, 27 Sep 2007 17:14:45 +0000

The funniest part about this note is that they say the market is pricing in an 85% chance of merger approval usign this synergy assumption: “The combined EV is trading at ~15x PF 2010E EBITDA (includes $150M synergies)”

So what is the percentage at 3-7 billion in synergies? A lot less than 85% by his own logic. Hey Jacoby, how about when you talk about how the MARKET is pricing a company, you use the synergy values the MARKET is using?

To me all this note says is that if you add virtually no synergies, the combined company is priced accordingly, therefore maybe instead of having a 2.25 price target (no merger) he should raise it well over 3.

Yay or nay?

By: Mario

Mario — Wed, 26 Sep 2007 18:52:40 +0000

This news should just stay in the forum. Jacoby just wants to get his name in the press as much as possible, issuing these updates every week. No respectable analyst (if they existed) would stoop to such a low. It’s pathetic actually.

By: BruceInAustin

BruceInAustin — Wed, 26 Sep 2007 17:04:01 +0000

This SiriusBuzz post states that “We note that we have not yet had a chance to speak with our regulatory contacts this morning.”

However, the post on Orbitcast states “Bank of America has had the chance to speak with their regulatory contacts this morning.”

Can you clarify this? Has BoA talked to their contacts this morning or not?

Thanks

By: SiriusInvestor

SiriusInvestor — Wed, 26 Sep 2007 17:02:13 +0000

I think Jacoby’s “DC Contact” is non-existent, meaning that person never existed and was made-up by an over zealous anal-yist.

By: MUSCLE13

MUSCLE13 — Wed, 26 Sep 2007 16:45:13 +0000

Jacoby is Bearish?? What?? I can’t believe it!