Believe in Sirius XM, Believe in Mel Karmazin
In this weekly guest post, Scott Spiegel shares his feelings about Sirius XM CEO Mel Karmazin.
Mel Karmazin didn’t take President’s Day off. At least it doesn’t seem that way. Now that he, despite all the doubters, has outfoxed the vultures looking to pick from the decomposing carcass, that would have been SiriusXM, I honestly believe that the future is extremely bright for our dear entertainment company.
In my role (as a guest poster), I’m not really required to write that often (honestly, I am going for once a week). But, after reading the comments, to my most recent post, and in light of recent developments, I found myself inspired to voice my eternal support for Mr. Mel Karmazin. However, in fairness, I must say, if the company had ended up filing for bankruptcy today, this post would never have happened. Here’s the deal though: by keeping the company afloat, in current economic conditions nonetheless, the man needs to be saluted.
What Mel Karmazin’s detractors don’t get, is that he is a RADIO guy. When Stern and Chris Russo were discussing the whole financial situation last week (and every time, anyone associated with the company has ever discussed the manner, for that matter), what is the overriding theme? Believe in Mel. The guy UNDERSTANDS RADIO. The one thing the non-believers aren’t realizing: the people in charge at all the other radio companies, are clueless: they are the same ones who gave us the pathetic programming that led us all to Satellite in the first place.
Look, the guy’s not perfect. There are obviously things that I wish I could change about this beloved product, but it’s clear to me, that Mel Karmazin is not only the best man for this situation…he’s probably the ONLY person capable of fixing this mess. If the merger had been approved in somewhat nearly an appropriate amount of time, the company would not be in this condition. For all we know, Mel Karmazin might not have only staved off bankruptcy today, he might have just given a body blow to terrestrial radio, as well.
Scott Spiegel is a freelance writer based out of Houston, you can learn more about him at Scottyspiegel.com
I Have been telling everyone for some time that my MONEY is on Mel and my bill’s rear “In Mel We Trust”, stay long and ride this ship into the sunset….2 years everone will be lov-in Mel…
Postion , Long
What color is the sky in your world?
All SiriusXM did was borrow even more to pay back money it already owed.
When individuals do this sort of thing they are called irresponsible.
To make matters worse, they essentially gave away a huge chunk of the company.
All this does is put off the inevitable BK filing.
Time will tell Tim, Sell your shares and watch us burn if thats your take.
Thanks for your swift mea culpa Scott. I guess you got my memo about your last article on who is and isn’t the right person to run SiriusXM. How many new dogs will be named “Mel K” if he pulls this potential media giant through? My future pet will have no bone to pick with you.
lets all support this man by re-upping and locking in your account and internet offering cause you know whats next on the menu is iphone revenue.You done have to be smart,you have to be street smart to see ahead and you know its gonna be huge!! thank-you MEL
PS: 1/9/11 MAKE THE RIGHT DECISION
I haven’t made any money yet, you made any money yet, I haven’t made any money yet. How about you, you made any money yet. Let’s not mess our pants yet. I don’t think we know yet just what the deal really is here.
Yep. I made some money. I bought in at .08 and set a limit trade set for today at .13 Damn I was happy when it opened at .19
Gotta believe in Mel! I’m pouring my advanced position back in because well Mel is Mel!
The word is out that Sirius is a bargain and a lot of small timers like me are jumping on board!
Its called the H-stern effect you can open an account with sharebuilder.c*m with no minimum. Average people that never dabbled in stocks can get in on this withought having 3 grrrrr handy to open an account. My boys at work and I have all been jumping on!
Long Sirius
OK, I’d name my dog after him but that’s it until he, “shows me some money!”
Scot, love the post about Mel, as a diehard listener and shareholder I never sold! Kept buying, and listening, hope more start doing the same!
The real test for me is when the stock price goes back to pre-merger levels. That’s when I bow down to Mel. For now, I’m just glad that they have room to implement the next gen of Sat radio. All the things talked about in these blogs can now be pushed forward.
IPod/Zune Deals
A few free channels for non believers
More Internet Penetration
A deeper focus on unique content (diferentiators from Ipod/Slacker)
with the merger, a few new opportunities come to mind…
1. Cross platform advertising and package deals (Sirius XM and DirecTV).
2. Content sharing? DirecTV can share some of their sports conents with Sirius and vise versa.
3. Better visibility for Sirius XM (next to DirecTV?)
4. better channels for DirecTV (Howard, etc.) possibly a way to restructure his current contract. Get Direct TV to pay for some of it.
5. More dollars to get Oprah to pitch Sat Radio!
The one thing I disagree with is #5.. get Oprah the F outta that lineup. She is not the Stern counterpunch XM was hoping for and she does nothing for subs.. To get her to lift a finger would cost billions.. That lady has zero motivation to work harder than her tv show. Find NEW talent!!!
I’m wondering if the FCC would allow Direct TV hardware to receive the Sirius signal and somehow incorporate it into their programming packages.. hmmmmmm
If Howard can get on Directv I’m a subscriber and I’m buying! This would be a great asset. The big boner has always been that you could only get Howard TV on cable.
My bet would be that would be a big deal to Liberty/Directv.
Hell they paid Howard 500 large probably the best investment Sirius ever made. 6 months from now you will all see Howard saved the company from BK!
Long Sirius
Oh my God, Good things come to those who wait! WHEW! I need some OCTANE!
The guy is one wiley SOB. The company will survive and most of us will be in the black as shareholders in 2 years. A long hard struggle, but what isn’t? At this point in American history we need to survive first, then win later. Time is the ultimate leverage right now, and today we got some to play with.
Well,
I’m happy to say that I have foot-in-mouth syndrome right now. After all of the B.S. we’ve been through we finally catch a break and get a life-line. I’m still way down (dollarwise) but have to say that it feels good to not be BK today.
All of the Sirius perma-bulls have pulled this one out. Nice going. I might have to add a subscription or two. I hate giving Mel any credit seeing as he is just as much to blame for where we are at but if he had anything to do with the deal, my congratulations.
SCRF – A little of that soder and buttered popcorn worked out. Let’s give it a try one more time. Friggin – I probably owe you a few hundred bucks for doubting your addtional buys. Oh well. Live to play another day.
GIS. There will be more opportunities to buy. At this point it’s not a Sirius/XM problem. It’s the whole damn investment system. Right now there isn’t enough money coming into the market to even move this penny stock to where it should be.
We should float around for a while now. Hey, have you checked out the indexes??? And all you get on CNBC is more negative piled up on more negative. The media created the housing bubble and now it’s trying to create the next depression.
By the way GIS. The sequel is due out in the Spring. I’m going for bon bons next time and maybe a bag of red licorice.
I promised myself that the moment it started dropping I would sell all. And sell all I did this a.m. first thing.
I strongly believe todays lifeline is HUGE. However, the overall market sentiment is beyond bad. It appears the markets have turned their nose to the stimulus bill and the new treasurer.
Go Slacker live forever.
We live on GIS.
Wow, what a SiriusXM roller coaster week! I have been long on Sirius since 2004, and, like most Sirius longs, have lost most of my investment, BUT, I am still a believer in this “COMPANY”. Sirius, at least this week is still in business thanks to John Malone and Liberty Media, who by the way, has one of the best subscription business models in the industry. I believe SiriusXM will one day prosper and will make us longs smile. Thanks to Mel and Liberty we live another day.
I am still down $50,000 down, I will continue to buy shares, hopefully to get to a $1.00 a share and I will break even, don’t know if that will ever come true in my lifetime.
Crawling back does suck but it’s good to know that smart people like Malone have more skin in this game.
I’m thoroughly exhausted and depleted tonight by the events of the last two weeks!
But there are a few things I feel I have to say. Beginning with that is it sorely disconcerting to seek information as well as inspiration out as a small investor, especially in view of the ‘Coup de Grace’ pulled off by Mel today, only to read and hear nothing but negativity on behalf of the so-called-financial experts out there….!!
The downgrade by the Argus Research Boner-er…….THAT had us all at ‘HOLD’ while the ship was going down…. (Wat was dat all about??) But SELLS us when the life rafts arrive??!!
And as about disheartening as this is Cramer’s continued labeling the common stock as worthless, irrespective of outcome…….!!
I mean, give a guy a freaking break here!!
What would’ve been wrong with him (Cramer) just saying ‘holy freaking cow! I never would’ve believed it, ESPECIALLY in this environment, WHILE IT IS still a long shot, but, what a play and what a guy and maybe, just maybe, Mel and Malone may pull off the upset of the century………??
What would be wrong with that Mr. Cramer……..and don’t tell me about ‘watching out for my money’, I probably would not have been so deep in this stock was it not for your heralding $10 a share back in ‘04 the way you did, and you continued to plug the stock way after that ‘mis-call’ by you………….
This Co. has made some mistakes, the climate has turned ugly, Karmazin has at times looked………..well scary as well, but today is probably one of the greatest saves from the brink of bankruptcy, to have happened WITHOUT THE SUPPORT OF TAX-PAYER DOLLARS, and a little respect and good will from those who are most in power in the financial media groups, would’ve went a long way to restore confidence, including mine, in all of you………….
Amen, Draland, amen.
Thanks………..and I didn’t even include this guy with the hearing problems, Marek Fuchs and his ‘against the grain’ video………how retarded, No ?
I think Mr Karmazin needs to address the shareholders on this decision. It was in the best of interests in light of Bankruptcy but his intentions of selecting Mr. Malone as a partner should be justified. Money was not the only reason. Please do not insult our intelligence.
Just can’t sleep yet………………
S&P places Sirius XM ratings on watch positive
Cramer pumped Sirius right up until the “ugly” refinance deal with his buddies at Goldman Sachs to close the merger. Cramer had his infamous FCC merger delay calendar hanging on his tv studio wall for all the world to see. It seemed like he referred to it on EVERY show. Pointing out again and again that the merger WASN’T anti competitive. Calling out the FCC and just stopping short of accusing them of being paid off by the NAB. He CONTINUALLY said that if the merger was approved Sirius goes to $5. Again and again we heard him say $5. $5. $5!!!!
We all expected a pop. Cramer was our public cheerleader. Like him or hate him…it felt good to have SOMEONE on tv and wall street saying what we all felt.
But was it all lies? Did Cramer find out about the ugly deal with Goldman when we did? Or was it something much more sinister? Did he know all along what was going to happen and pumped the stock to help out his buds at GS to set everyone up for the pop we all expected.
Because BOY did he sure change his tune right before the merger and after it. No more was he singing his praises for the product. He went from blabbing for MONTHS about how he had both Sirius and XM in his car and how much he LOVED the product. But after? Not a peep.
Then he became downright angry. He said he got a death threat from some disgruntled Sirius investor. Maybe so. And that is serious business not to be taken lightly. But I think he used that as an excuse to cover his tracks. To publicly justify his 180 degree about face. I mean come on. Sirius shareholders and fans are a VOCAL bunch to be sure….but I bet Cramer has gotten MANY such threats because of his pumping or bashing of MANY other stocks. It can’t be his first run in with some psycho investor. Please.
Something smells fishy here.
Even now…Sirius gets no love. The debt issue looks resolved more or less for this year….so now we see all these articles with negative titles such as “Sirius gets a stay of execution” Or “Escapes bankrupcy but still static”.
Articles are filled with negative talking points like how Sat technology is passe. It’s all internet now. They are so obviously biased they don’t even try to hide it.
It’s the same old….Bad news is bad news and Good news is BAD NEWS for Sirius. There is a palpable vendetta against this stock that is so in your face, you have to laugh when people say conspiracy. Conspiracys are suppose to be secret. This is BLATANT.
Anyway…I am at a point where I’ve averaged down to a buck. Not bad considering that my original average was $6.50!
I want to average down even more, but like alot of people, cash ain’t that easy to come by these days. I am glad I bought a few $500 chunks at the .07 cent range. That REALLY helped me get my average down so low.
I’d like to get it to around .50 to .75 a share break even. I figure 4 more chunks of 3,000 shares will do it.
If the stock keeps getting hammered in the press I may start buying at .16 cents or lower. I don’t think it’ll go back below .07 cents again…especially if they have a better than expected 4Q.
Still waiting on some paychecks tho. Hopefully the timing will work out where I will be able to buy it in the teens for the next few weeks.
But if not…I can hold for awhile. Hell…I’ve been holding for almost 4 years now…I think I can wait it out.
I’d love to keep this for a few years….but I am kinda counting on this money….and am so sick of the external forces against this stock….that I just want to get out with a break even amount.
I’ve NEVER ever experienced a stock so manipulated like Sirius in all my short investing life. EVER. And I want out. Soon as possible.
I wish I had more money right now. I’d be A LOT more aggressive in averaging down. 5 grand would enable me to do both – cash out at break even AND let some ride. But as it stands…I can only add in small chunks right now.
The good news is that BK is off the table for now….and because of the delisting extensions, we won’t have to worry about a RS until much later this year.
I’m curious what a few good quarters will do to public opinion on wall street. Will they change their tune? Will they FINALLY show Sirius some love? Or is the conspiracy real? And will they stop at nothing to destroy this company and it’s shareholders? Only time will tell.
In the meantime, I’ll keep working and saving…and throwing small chunks into it at a time. With a little luck, my timing will work out for ONCE with this stock and sometime this year, I’ll be able to get out at break even….or God help me…a slight profit.
Sure, I still have dreams of it popping to $2, $3 or the “infamous” Cramer $5….but with so many forces working against this stock….I am certainly not counting on it.
Cheers and good luck to all.
I bought more shares pre-merger because I listened to Cramer. I had a bad feeling about this market and many times wanted to sell but kept listen to Cramer “when the merger is approved it will double” talk. I averaged down to $1.39 and thought about doubling down again on the bankruptcy news which I felt was a bluff but I had been wrong every time so I thought “Why lose another 2K on this stock” Glad to hear the positive news.
Good Luck and let’s hope the I-Phone application takes off like a rocketship!
Know what ya mean, frigginregan. I was at $8 and now at $1.10 give or take, and yes my cash stores are depleted, I was too scared to buy any more at .07, but did grab some at .11…………….Much Love and Luck to You, and yes I do remember his infamous calendar and his now obvious patronization of the masses who invested in him and this stock!!
I hardly watch his show any more; it was a 365-day staple in my household. I think one day the Nielsen’s will come full circle on Cramer…………….it is sad cause I really respected him and felt the pain that he went through in his personal hell, no doubt lost in that ‘cheap scotch’ he alludes to time and again…………………….SOLD OUT……!!
Stay patient – watch what happens later in the year, the financial media is scum with great access to herding the sheep… the only good news with them is they will just LOVE the company again when their pals have finished with the end is near story. Unbelievable bias and corruption on wall street.
Been patient, give or take some heart failure symptomatology, for 5+ years now……Thanks for the calming words nonetheless!
At what point does Mel say enough is enough and goes to war with these writers? How much more abuse and stock manipulation can a public company stand?
Hang in there! I know what your talking about the bad media coverage and all. But here is an example of a front page story on the business page the other day. “McDonalds profits fall by 37 percent..”
I dont think I got the number right but I looked at my boss and told him “look they can make bad news out of anyting they want.” Instead of saying the Big Mac Supper Club showed a profit of (insert amount) they have to say that their profits fall. Doom and Gloom. A profit is a profit! Slap that in there with all the other negative BS on the business page and it makes for a great economy…
As Flavor Flav said DONT BELIEVE THE HYPE!
“My company made 75 million dollars last quarter as opposed to 150 million the quarter before…”
Headline “PROFITS OF MY COMPANY WERE DOWN 50 PERCENT FROM Q3 RUN RABBIT RUN!!”
The BK was just a bluff to gain leverage just like GM’s news recently to gain leverage against the union.
I dream of the old XM radio share price of $40+ but the shares are way too diluted for that so I’ll be happy with $20+.(LOL) Good Job Mel! Way to hang on everyone!
Methinks that Just……………………Let the Car Industry get they’re UAW deal done, and just watch……….
Ooops, I meant ‘their’…….
Friggin…WELL SAID..the talking heads in media will always bash this stock because they are the losers by the way they slant the truth about SIRI and they will be found out to be LOSERS. I bet some of them hold SIRI shares.
I managed to buy about $1,000 worth when it hit .07 cents. I wasn’t really scared, because at that point for me it was either I am going to lose it all anyway if BK happened(so why not risk another grand when I already had over 20 grand that was worth LESS than $1,000! I figured it was worth it.
I ONLY wish I had $5,000 handy at the time…then I would have lowered my average to a mere .25 cents.
If Sirius is held down at these levels by the all powerful bashers…I will average down further…albeit in much smaller chunks. Wish I could do it in one go…but I can’t at the moment.
I was also thinking of trading Sirius with a small chunk of cash. I’ve never traded Sirius really. I’ve been long from the beginning.
But if Sirius isn’t going bankrupt. And a bottom at this price has been set….yet it gets held down by the negative press for awhile….it may boucne up and down in 5 cent chunks. At this low price thats a pretty big move.
I figure if I do that I stand to make some change…plus it may give me the mental satisfaction of “cashing out” without cashing out my main long position. And if it runs while I am trading it…well then…I’ll have just averaged down even more.
What are other longs doing?
I’m buying at the .15 level, bought more today. With Liberty backing them, they will easily habdle the 350M bank loan in May and once this is announced, stock with go alot higher. Also, I would not be surprised if they can get someone to replace teh Dec convertibles like thye did on the the first 1/2 just the other day.
Right now I am averaged in at 2.00. Want to get below 1.00/.50, just don’t have the cash right now. I want to get below a 1.00 just in case a R/S is executed.
Then sit on it for a few years, unless the overall market continues to deteriorate. Looks like a lot of January 2.50 calls were bought for next year. The link is in the forums.
Believe it or not dread. That damn nog hangs in there.
Mel looks like a friken buffoon in the picture!
I’d have to agree with that.
Did all I could do, owe a chunk of cash on the HELOC already for this stock…………..$20G would get me to $.30, but I can’t any more………..We need some relief…………….Let’s sue for gov’t funds based on overt conspiracy by Ken Martin, et al.