Comments on: Basic OEM Math For Sirius XM Investors

By: cos1000

cos1000 — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 14:03:10 +0000

Roadkill, I never called for a breakout at $1.50, and my pseudonym is not Bubba. Your a lot of questions with very few answers, a lot of sarcasm without anything to add to the conversation. Please save your “Socratic” and “Sarcastic” approach your Yahoo and Seeking Alpha Posts. For me all you try and do is divert attention to meaningless metrics as Homer985 clearly explained above.

By: homer985

homer985 — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 22:33:05 +0000

Honda has been at 60% penetration (Honda/Acura combined) for a long time — they’ve given no indication that they intend on going much above that (or below it). That penetration has been achieved by being standard in all Acura models (which accounts for 25% of the Honda XM installs) — with the remaining amounts coming from the upper end models from Honda (mostly Accord’s and Civic’s).

The Honda Fit is the cheapest car made by Honda — and is stripped down for the younger car buyer, with limited funds (starts at $13k). It sold just 56K units, out of Honda’s 1.37 million sold in all of 2007. It’s on pace to sell fewer than 100K in 2008. Comparatively speaking, the Accord and Civic is on pace to sell nearly 800K combined this year.

As long as Honda continues to hit their 800K~1 million annual installs, what they do with their economy vehicles makes no difference to me.

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By: Sirius Roadkill

Sirius Roadkill — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 22:05:13 +0000

. . . and why pray-tell Homer is it thus not being installed in the 2009 Fit?

By: homer985

homer985 — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 16:51:34 +0000

FWIW, those numbers are likely a little light — even with the downturn.

XM alone did about 3.4 million installs in 2007 and has been on pace to easily eclipsing 4.0 million in installs for 2008. If there was no downturn, then they would have done 4.5~4.6 million. Remember, Toyota & Nissan are ramping up for XM here in 2008.

Anyhow, looking over their numbers — it appears that they have done at least 1.8 million installs in the first half of 2008, and will easily get enough to top 4 million. XM has had a long-term goal of topping 5.0 million in 2009, which I still believe is doable — at this point.

With XM doing 4 million, I believe that Sirius is still doing at least 3.0-3.5 million installs too this year… which would put the combined numbers up to at least 7 million, and likely more.

Regarding Honda… lest everyone forget that Honda had over $125 million worth of debt and equity in XM (now in Sirius/XM); plus they have a seat on the Board of Directors; and a contract with XM that is paying the revenue for every install/subscriber. Just a dose of reality.

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By: Tim

Tim — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 00:45:58 +0000

Roadkill… The quadrunner I bought for my 9 year old doesn’t have SATRAD either so, what’s your point?

By: Sirius Roadkill

Sirius Roadkill — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 21:14:04 +0000

p.s. I guess you’re not even the least bit curious why Honda made the conscious decision NOT to equip the ‘09 Fits . . . said the spider to the fly . . .

By: Sirius Roadkill

Sirius Roadkill — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 20:58:16 +0000

Hey Cos . . . how’s that “channel formation” lookin today bubba?

I’m still waitin on that big-big $1.50 breakout from two Mondays ago (LOL).

I betcha Honda officials are conspiring right now with Cramer and Wienkes . . . yeah-yeah, that’s the ticket . . . can’t wait for that big post Labor Day announcement . . .

By: cos1000

cos1000 — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 20:05:52 +0000

frigginreagan, I’m with you on feeling rather comfortable with my assessment of this company. I just nibbled in with another 1250 sh @ 1.35. I just want to be on this side of the Appeals deadline and Labor Day.

By: cos1000

cos1000 — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 20:02:11 +0000

Brandon thanks for the dose of reality. It is a foundation for the company and investors to begin with and that’s before increases in Retail. All those unfortunate folks who will need after market “Retail” units installed in their Honda Fit. Along with a company campaign to come back at the Used car market’s new owners for their subs. There is a lot of potential and I do believe Mel and his team can deliver it.

By: cos1000

cos1000 — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 19:58:54 +0000

Sirius Roadkill, WoW not going to be standard on the Honda Fit. Why not recited all of the other vehicles that SAT RAD is not standardly equipped. The glass is always half empty, just like the OEM market, 50% penetration rate. Hows that for a little dose of what everyone here already knows.