Barrington rates SIRI Outperform
Barrington analyst Jame Goss has rated Sirius XM Radio as OUTPERFORM in a note issued October 30th. The analyst feels that, “the satellite radio concept is viable and valuable, particularly as changes are made in the context of a single corporate survivor. Our bias on this stock remains positive.”
Goss does note that financial issues have generated increased scrutiny on the equity, but recognizes that the company has exchanged some February debt for common shares, and feels that this could be an indicator that Sirius XM it is close to managing the immediate February 2009 maturities.
On the May and December XM debt Goss stated, “The second issue is $350 million of XM bank debt that comes due in May. Management feels these maturities can be extended. The other $400 million of maturities are more than a year away in December of 2009. This 1.75% convertible issue can potentially be replaced with 10% fixed rate debt.”
Confirming discussion on potential delisting and rule changes, Goss stated, “The NASDAQ has temporarily waived the $1 per share trading requirement due to the financial crisis, and SIRI’s sizable market cap appears to place it in a separate category given its roughly 3 billion share base. While reverse splits are not typically a desirable option, this might be one of the rare exceptions to that rule.”
Barrington seems to bullish on the concept of SDARS without going overboard. The closing note in their report sums things up pretty well:
“Armed with improving visibility along these lines, we are reducing our target values to a new progression beginning with $0.60 based on 2009 assumptions and $2.00 based on 2010. The debate appears to have come down to an issue of survival of the company and the industry concept.”
Position – Long SIRI
Tyler. Appreciate your efforts on keeping us informed.
I think that the take on the February debt is very positive.
Again. Thanks.
Wow. I’m in SHOCK. An actual POSITIVE take on the company. Especially so soon after BIG DOG Goldman slammed the stock with the ridiculously low .25 cent stamp.
How sweet would it be when other analysts start defying the all powerful GS and stick their neck out with more and more positive reviews.
It’d be like in those corny hollywood movies were the “Bully” is defied by the “Geek” and soon the whole school starts standing up to the bully and he sulks away in emasculated shame. LOL.
Ever since the merger approval, I’ve been very guarded about letting myself get excited…and have refrained from any and all hopeful fantasies….but every now and then like when I read a report like this, I have a flash of what it would feel like if this trend continued.
And it feels good.
But then the walls come back up. I will only relax when it becomes a reality. When the debt is refinanced, and a RS is taken off the table.
Anyway….thanks Tyler.
Oops. I just read that they actually LIKED the idea of a RS with Sirius. DOH!!
Being a true long…i have to take issue with this one thing…otherwise…POSITIVE article. 🙂
“Emasculated”. Friggen you have the Vocabulary Award in the bag. lol.
Hey. He writes the article in a way the makes sense, in a stock that makes no sense.
I keep hearing people say that they buy songs on itunes, after hearing them on Sirius/XM.
There has to be a way to make this a transparent transaction, and so that Sirius can benefit from the deal.
Anyway, heres to the Feb. debt being dealt with by earnings time.
Attention all readers, “POSITIVE NEWS” This scares me, Each time we get good news the stock price goes into the shitter….I hope Mel has a great speach ready for next week, my heart needs it. Still long..
what does this mean?
Confirming discussion on potential delisting and rule changes, Goss stated, “The NASDAQ has temporarily waived the $1 per share trading requirement due to the financial crisis, and SIRI’s sizable market cap appears to place it in a separate category given its roughly 3 billion share base. While reverse splits are not typically a desirable option, this might be one of the rare exceptions to that rule.”
Wondered the same thing, romo. My guess is that he thinks it might be good to do the RS just to get the number of shares down. Getting above a dollar wouldn’t be the only positive here. But I would think that would only hold true if the outlook of the company was very positive.
It might actually keep casual investors from saying “Hey look how cheap SIRI is.” I would suspect those are the same people that sell when the price goes down a few cents, helping to fuel the downward trend.
Good article Tyler … cautiously encouraging. Still, the 09 and 10 tagarts from Goss indicate long term hold, volitility trading notwithstanding.
Like romo and spanyo, I am also curious about Goss’s comment on an RS. What do you think is being said between the lines?
*targets
One quick additonal comment: I don’t mind an RS that means less but more highly valued shares in the kitty, so long as is also provides some defense against what put the SP where it is now.
*it and “what [put] us” … (damn typos)
Correction “what put” is what I meant. I am about ready to give up on typing….
Going with the theme of a theory of good things to come:
Given Mel’s history of under-promising and over-delivering, can anyone speculate on reaction to a major announcement of refi and/or new services/goods to be offered in the Q3CC?
Is anyone out there expecting Mel to blindside us with something awesome for the company AND the shareholders at some point in the near future?
I just can’t help but feel like there are things going on that we don’t know about that are really gonna blow our minds when they come out in the future…
Tyler, on the CNN Money homepage, under the “Last 10 Quotes” where I follow SIRI (15 minutes delayed) when my trading software is not running, the only linked article is, “SIRIUS XM Radio To Launch Channel Dedicated To Led Zeppelin.” How about sending them the Barrington’s aticle and asking them to provide a “Last 10 Quotes” link to it. I like Led Zepplin information but the link to it is based on a press release. CNN Money readers (INVESTORS) need the positive information you provide from Barrington’s.
PS: I’m going to quit sweating my typos…
PM you really dont need to keep posting your typos. It gets annoying
Mel just needs to hit the numbers for the 3qtr. and Mel has stated they are on track.
For the next year it will always come back to the debt, but that may be improving and the attitude changing among some analysts.
It seems that the Feb note is everyone’s BIG concern. The May and Dec notes look to be extended and not a problem in the eyes of a lot of people.
If that holds true, 2009 will be very good and reflect it in the stock price.
Wienkes is full of shit.
I would sepeculate that if we don’t hit .25 before the 3qtr.cc by the shorting,naked shorting, continued attacks by GS, the Street,and Motley, We will never will drop to that .25 figure.
We could possibly start the climb back up after the CC. that will continue through 2009.
Be careful when you buy and sell
imho
vaporgold
dave, get a lyfe….
SP moving in hundreths and thousandths. Same only trend, though.
Can’t wait for Q3CC, Q4 forecast, and stockholder meeting.
Tyler, if you have a source for a comprehensive listing of analysts following SIRI then please share.
Standard & Poor’s rates SiriusXM as Outperform
Sure would be great if, 1) we could get a compilation of the analysts focused on SIRI, and 2) if the press had some of the insights provided by the more knowledgeable SiriusBuzz folks (founders and contributers alike). I for one sure get tired of seeing nothing but negative information in the mainstream media.