The biggest flaw with your write up is that you are assuming that September sales and q4 sales will be flat or lower than desired.

How can you see that on the 3rd day of September. It is a forward negative outlook.

I bought a car last week and the salesmen told me that the c4c was a jump start in sales that has not slowed. That is the pulse that I see.

Maybe sales will continue at a decent clip. We just don’t know that yet.

Tyler good article containing many truisms: SAC goes up with increased production and ARPU will be impacted by those increased sales and the resultant mix by OEM Contract.

Beyond that I think there is still much to be debated regarding “who” (consumer type) bought the C4C cars. Many think that they will offset future sales but, omit the fact that this was a “Clunker” program. Many who purchase these new cars were probably consumers who owned these cars for many years, conservative in their new car purchases, and not usually parading through dealerships. Others who participated could easily have been part of pent up demand to buy, waiting for the program to be executed…

We know sales were non existent from Jan 09 until C4C, BK of OEM’s, and Credit availability loosened up, so why is everyone thinking these “sales” were future and not just delayed sales? I think that we will find stability in the OEM sales numbers at around 10.5M in ‘09 and easily up to 11.5 to 12M in 2010, provide we continue on our way to an improving credit market. As the jobs numbers improve, consumers will spend, and autos are a necessity and an American love affair. Relevant to that is the fact that the lower end, or “economy” models with better gas mileage, such as KIA’s new line, come complete with SAT RAD installed. Hyundai has a similar offering and the competition for sales will be stiff, with SAT RAD winning regardless.

Metrics are important in evaluating the company in the microcosm of their quarter over quarter and year over year comparisons. Understanding how the market impacts those numbers is equally important. Failing to step back and look at the broader macrocosm that this company is operating in and the upward momentum of those metrics is just pure folly and could result in an investor loosing out on this company’s success story in the making……

Clearly the market is seeing what is going on and is keeping SIRI as a penny stock.

What is particularly irritating about Sirius is that they go to great pains to simply ignore the wishes of their subscribers.

I believe SIRI will tank again and be down in the 30 cent range but that doesn’t mean you can’t make money on it.

Long term, the current Sirius-XM management has already proven itself incapable of doing the obvious.

Get rid of Mel Karmazin and watch SIRI take off.

Tyler…good article!!
To get the results needed that pipline has to be steady and stay full.

I wish SiriusXM would activate all the non sub radios that are currently in cars.Play music and load it up with advertisers, take the ad money..when the listener get sick of that they can buy a subscription
imho
vaporgold