oem channelIn 2013 the auto sector has seen a bullish run for most of the year.  The first real glimmer of worry came in the second half of July, which was weaker than the first half.  The overall outlook for 2013 was not really impacted by that bump in the road, but it did make the mid month sales report in August carry a bit more weight and a more watchful eye.  The good news is that August is pacing well.

We should anticipate auto sales to be well above 1.4 million, and perhaps even offer up a challenge to 1.5 million.  Essentially we should look at a year over year gain of between 10% and 12%.  A strong August would further cement the estimates that overall sales for the year will be somewhere in the neighborhood of 15.5 million vehicles sold.

More-so than in the past, a small fluctuation to the upside in auto sales can have a great impact on SiriusXM and how bullish the equity looks.  Each new subscriber is becoming more valuable, and the percentage of new subscriber revenue that reaches the bottom line is more impressive.  It is anticipated that 2014 will be another positive year for the auto sector, and peak car sales may happen in 2015 or 2016.  This points to strength and growth for SiriusXM.

At this point I am estimating that new car sales for August will be in the vicinity of 1,478,000 units.  In contrast we saw about 1,284,000 vehicles sold last year.  The headlines for August auto sales should be overwhelmingly positive, so be ready ready for that in the beginning of September.

The end of the month auto sales report with charts and breakdowns will be published for SiriusBuzz Premium members in the first week of September.  SiriusBuzz Premium members will get additional insight and breakdowns that tie to some of the more complex qualities of SiriusXM’s auto deals