Have you ever planned a road trip to a fun destination with a child in the car? Have you noticed that just at the point where the child is frustrated with the length of time the trip is taking the inevitable question is asked: Are We There Yet? The answer is virtually always the same...."Soon" Today, FCC Chairman Kevin Martin expressed the "Soon" word in an interview with CNBC.
What sector watchers want to know is if this is "Soon" as in the classic definition, or is it "Soon" as in that road trip where "Soon" seems to drag on forever.
Where government is concerned, "Soon" is an arbitrary period of time that leaves enough wiggle room to fall somewhere between tomorrow and a year from now. Thus, it is little surprise that the comments of Martin did not bolster the Sirius and XM equities. The street has been told "Soon" too many times now, and the meaning of it has become so blurred that people give up in trying to guess what was actually meant by the FCC commissioner.
So what are investors doing? They are playing their investing version of "Punch Buggy" or "I Spy" to pass the time while the ultimate goal of a merger decision is pending.
In case you were wondering, Kevin Martin has yet to use "Really Soon", "Really Really Soon", "Around The Next Corner", or "Over The Next Hill" as a response to the "Are We There Yet" questions.
On the positive side, the FCC has had all of the information to consider for some time now. They have drafted proposals, and discussed concessions with Sirius and XM. It goes without saying that "Soon" may well be around the next corner, so long as we don't run out of gas before getting there.
Position - Long Sirius, XM.