Analyst Upgrades Inevitable
If they build it, they will come. When it comes to Sirius XM, it really is that simple. During the course of the last year or so, Sirius XM shares declined primarily on debt concerns and a declining U.S. auto market. Without exception, every Wall Street analyst cited these concerns as the reasoning behind their lowered price targets and downgrades in 2008.
With Sirius XM debt issues laid to rest, investors witnessed the equity’s nearly 200% increase during the first quarter of 2009. This week brought with it news that the automakers themselves feel that the worst is now behind us. The annual estimated run rate of new cars increased substantially; from as low as 8.5 million to as high 10.5 million on the March sales data.
It stands to reason expectations for Sirius XM’s future would be raised on this data, when considering that a 2 million unit increase for the auto sector translates into an increase of approximately 500,000 additional new subscribers in 2009, as compared to February estimates.
Adding to this improvement in the company’s outlook is the Obama administration’s plan to drive consumers into dealership showrooms and spur growth of the U.S. auto industry. One part of the plan involves a scrap program, which according Barclay’s, as quoted by CNBC’s Bob Pisani, “could boost U.S. sales by 3 million units.” Another part of the plan offers tax incentives to boost new car sales as well.
These initiatives will inevitably increase the auto sales rate to nearly 14 million units this year alone. A 6.5 million unit increase from earlier estimates translates into an increase of 1,625,000 satellite radio subscribers, again from earlier estimates. These are not insignificant numbers. These are the numbers that add up to profitability for Sirius XM in 2009. It is only a matter of time before Wall street analysts jump on the proverbial bandwagon.
Position: Long Sirius XM
Also, people trading in their cars for new cars puts more sat rad equiped cars in the “pre-owned” market. Things can only get better. The iphone apps should help reduce churn as well as add a few more subs.
I am glad to see more positive articles coming out regarding Sirius XM as the product is fantastic and everyone should be allowed to enjoy it in peace.
You need to also consider the cell phone sales. New phones with browser updates are here and more are coming. RIMM sales up 26% is also a direct factor in more subs.
We are moving in many new directions and have an outstanding partner that may bring a complete package with BackseatTV. If DirecTV is something I can order with Sirius Backseat TV! Whammo!
This is not a penny stock. DirecTV/Sirius Radio Combo pack is the next big thing for cars! Go Siri So! I rate this as a mega outperform in the next 2 years.
I agree with this article but my concern is that even with the markets going crazy this week siriusXm hasnt moved that much.
Alot of positives this week for the overall market has pushed alot of stocks higher. Im not sure why siriusXm didnt raise during all of this. If time isnt important to you id recommend this stock. I firmly believe over the next couple years SiriusXm will be a Media Powerhouse. They are taking all the steps they need to take to get to that point.
I really feel like this stock should be at or around the .60 ct mark. If debt and poor economy was the true reasons for the stocks decline then it has no where to go but up.
We know the debt worries are behind us and car sales are going to get better sooner or later. We know used cars are now going to have satrad already in them too. Things are looking better for siriusXm
Perhaps the analysts are reading the Wikipedia article on Sirius. The last piece of information says Sirius is about to go BK.
Someone needs to update that thing and liven it up with the recent events!
If bona fide analysts are reading Wikipedia and what others publish instead of digging into the company and other business sources for their own data, then shame on such analysts. There is too much pumping and dumping of the stock in the media (including on this board) and not enough hard facts being mass communicated. I remain long on SIRI based on the slowing improving technicals, on hard facts pertaining to the slowly improving fundamentals, and on my own gut telling SIRI–unknown risks at this point notwithstanding–may make a moon shot within six to 18 months as more sectors and their industries bottom and the economy rebounds.
Brandon, Your updated car sales of nearly 14 million seems too optimistic. I hope your right but how did u come up w/ this est. number?
Did you not read the article? It’s in there.
10.5 is the rate from March Data
3 million is what barclays adds with the junker program.
That’s 13.5 million units plus added units resulting from the tax incentives.
I’d say 14 million is conservative.
How can u trust Charles Barkley? Whats he know about cars? MY BAD! I read too quick at lunch. Also MY BAD on the C B attempt of a joke. It was a great article, I should read it sometime. Thanks again for your due diligence.
Great article. I posted the 14 million sub count on Monday. However, until we shareholders address the daily attempt to destroy shareholder value by ISEG, we are not going anywhere. We are a large enough group to make a lot of noise but most rather stand idol not doing a dam thing to help themselves.
Left this out:
Patricia A. Clem
Assistant Director
Market Regulation
FINRA
(240) 386-5105
[email protected]
So let me see if I get this right. Earlier in the week it was good news that GM was selling less cars, becuase Sirius is losing money on the deal. Now today, it’s supposed to be good news because the auto market has bottomed and car sales should be on their way up??????? Brandon, maybe you missed your calling. I’ll bet you would have been a helluva car salesman!
I think you have a reading comprehension problem.
Let me type slow so you can follow along:
The less GM cars that sell, the better for Sirius.
The more cars IN GENERAL, (as in the 20 other or so manufacturers that Sirius XM has deals with) that sell, the better for Sirius.
You seem to have typed it correctly. Did the thought process stop as you were punching keys?
LOL, If this were the Middle Ages you would have been an alchemist no doubt. How do you manage to get the formula just right?
The bottom line is this Brandon. For you to be right it requires nearly every major investor and trader on the street to be wrong about the long term outlook of this company and to be overlooking the deal of the century.
For me to be right, you just have to look at the stock price.
You mean the stock price that is up 199% in the last 90 days?
That hardly supports your argument.
Brandon: Please allow me to quote you directly
“Any GM slowdown in sales benefits Sirius XM as costs are reduced substantially, directly adding to its bottom line.”
Wouldn’t want to be accused of misunderstanding you!
see reply above…
Your not Jim Cramer, What Brandon is simply saying is that GM has a very sweet deal w/ Sirius XM. They get a bigger piece of the pie when a GM car is sold w/ a XM radio than any other of the car makers. So if they have to downsize and sell less vehicles the other car companies will get the sell instead. Their deal(the other car co.) w/ Sirius Xm is not as sweet so they get less money from the Sat Rad side of the sell (more goes to siri than if they bought a GM vehicle). So if GM’s volume goes down in car sales and the others go up, so does the revenue for Sirius Xm.
I think brandon is being conservative a touch on car numbers.
If you look at fords numbers for march they sold more than he has listed. Not by much more than a few hundred but still more.
The number he listed is 131101. Ford sold 131,465.
The higher number is fords number.
Actaully Brandon, the stock price being up 200% exactly supports my argument. No ongoing business with a good future ever falls far enough to go up that way. It’s a GREAT trading/speculation stock and many of us have and will continue to make money on it. I did one buy in at .06. John Malone OWNS this compnay, and he will finish the acquisition at a time and place of his choosing. Meanwhile, subscribers should enjoy the experience, and traders should make money on it. As I have said before it’s a great stock as long as you’re not a buy and hold investor.
You mean like, oh I don’t know…RIMM?
http://www.google.com/finance?.....ASDAQ:RIMM
That was a 150.00 stock last year. Would you like a few thousand other examples? You continue to denigrate yourself with each subsequent comment. You might want to consider walking away now. I’m smarter than you. Simply continue to reply if you would like me to continue your beating.
You are a total pompous asshole and you sound just like crfceo from yahoo.
I have never seen an author of an article, who is worth a grain of salt, take the time to insult the visitors who are comment on an article.
You have officially lost what little cred you had with me.
Oh, and as long as we’re talking percentages one year ago the stock was at 2.74. Six months ago the stock was at $1.30. That means it has lost 87% and 73% respectively of it’s value.
Brandon,
You cannot reason with this guy ( I’m Not Jim Cramer ) because he’s simply refusing to comprehend anything whatsoever. I think he posts under (floridadave 2001) on Yahoo! LOL
By the way, I believe we shouldn’t care where the stock price was and concentrate where it’s going which is what you’ve been doing. Thanks for your efforts.
Brandon: If you bought Sirius anytime before November of 2008, you’re not smarter than me just poorer than me! LOL
Sirius XM Stockholder: Why does everything about this stock have to be life and death? It seems more of a cult than a business investment. Let’s pretend we’re not Moonies selling flowers from a roadside van and address a couple of quetions please.
First, if everything is as you say it is, where are all the investors? Stock prices generally reflect future conditions, not current ones, so why aren’t investors breaking down the doors for this company?
Second, what happens to John Malone’s 40%? It would take him about a nanosecond to obtain control of this company. Don’t you think that if things get as good as you say that Malone will take the company away in a heartbeat?
(no, I don’t post anywhere as anything but INJC and you can find some post on there under that name)
Listen. I’m getting bored with you. Investors are breaking down the doors. Look at Ergen and Malone. Sirius got financed when companies like Lehman. AIG and General Motors could not.
And with that lead in to Malone. Do you know who used to have a similar stake? Blackstone. It means nothing. If Malone gained control the stock would go up, plain and simple.
But Malone doesn’t want control. Read up on the man. In fact, I recommend a Time article titled: The Third Man: John Malone.
Talk to me again when you graduate high school.
Sorry for the boredom. I thought you were enjoying this. You’re statement about Sirius vs. GM, Lehman, etc speaks for itself.
If Malone takes control it’s to fold Sirius into his company. I think Mel might differ about giving up 40% of the company being nothing, but time will tell.
Anyway, I hope you have a great weekend, and remember it’s just an investment!
Dude,
I think you are Jim Cramer.
Im Not Jim Cramer…
Yes, it is just an investment. So if your not a fan of the product and company, why are you posting here then? You made money on your low purchases. I remember you quote. Something like, ok, im going to buy again, but I hate this stock.. Or something like that… And you made a butt load on that trade. Why? Because you deep down believed everything we were telling you about how undervalued it was, how it wasnt going bk, etc… So why dont you listen now? Dont let a few days of sideways trading fool you, this suckers got another 2 legs up in it, easy. Ive seen these spec stocks recover, its never pretty, or easy , but it gets done. Usually in dramatic fashion.
Sounds good. When’s the next quarterly report on Sirius coming out?
Wow, this post is damn near vitriolic!
Kind of Scary if you ask me…………………..
Overall, I do agree that we have a Spec. Stock Recovery in the making, and when that happens……!!
Watch out cause’ you just may get run over from all the wanna be party goers
Good comments:One of the good things about XM/Siri sat radio is how easy it is to set up,operate,and function ubiquitessly,flawlessly, in all kinds of environments across the whole country. I love my XM,as the sub numbers suggest, millions of consumers want a product that is simple and works around the clock for a reasonable price,and the best part is you don’t have to be a high tech expert. Bob
I’ve been long on Sirius since 2005….I’m no investment pro (like some of you seem to think you are) but I know by the end of the year this stock is gonna bounce back(WAY BACK)..You dont need to be a pro to see that…Just use you brain….
Based on an 8 times cash flow number..it looks to me like 37 cents is fair value. With some good news on growth it could hit 50 cents by year end.
Brandon:
You are weak. You change with the wind. I can clearly remember you implying SIRIXM possibly going BK even after Liberty came through with the $$$.. None of your posts are based on any knowledge you have of markets or stock… it’s just what you believe at the moment…
I’ve been stopped taking you serious… I come to this site for the more enlightened posts… (I’m Not Jim Cramer) is right.. you are a volatile and prone to mood swings than a sensitive woman…
Long SIRIXM
“i ain’t no joke…. i used to let the mike smoke
now i slam it when i’m done and make sure it’s broke…”
Eric B & Rakim
Relmor my old friend, wondered what had happened to you. Yes, you were right about the bankruptcy which I thought was more likely than you. You’re a little off in my interpretation. I like the stock itself as a trading vehicle, but can’t see anyway out for the company longer term. So what do you think will happen with Malone? Brandon dismisses it of course, but I have to believe that if Sirius turms in good numbers that Malone will scoop up what little more he needs to take control. Reasonable?
Can you explain how he would just “scoop” up what he needs to without shareholder approval. And even if he does… what’s the big deal?
Shareholder approval? How about the DOJ and the FCC. Not! Next Hartleib theory please.
Doobz: Well, it isn’t a big deal at all. It’s just business and happens all the time. But it just goes against the standard theory of many that this will continue to be a stand alone company and a $10 or $20 stock in the future. If Malone takes over, it will be the end of Sirius as a publicly traded company. You would still have the service of course.
Socal: Shareholder approval would be just a formality because he owns so much, unless there is some catch to the deal that has not been publicly disclosed such as Malone giving Karmazinn proxy rights for a specified period of time. The DOJ and FCC would not step in again because their is ample proof that satrad cannot be a profitable business, even after almost 15 years, to say nothing of the fact that both agencies are a lot busier than they were last time around! LOL
Im Not Jim Cramer….
I dont understand how you think Malone needing to purchase 10%(which he doesnt, many ways to take control of a company when you own 40% of it already. He owns by far the largest stock count on activation of his shares) is bad for this stock price. Your argument isnt logical. Heres a more logical arguement. Since Malone needs to sell 10% of his shares, you can expect the price to drop. Thats logical. Your assuming he has plans for acquiring 10% more. You cant assume that. They hold minority stakes in other companies(they dont outright own DirectTV either, etc…). Malones involvement Jim, on the contrary gives excellent support to higher prices in the future. He has everything to gain by increasing the stock price now, as he is the largest owner. Thats logical. Your arguement isnt logical. Also to think this prices recovery is done here, well you havent been watching. Remember when Sirius was going down? Never help support like it has now for this many days. And goes back up to challenge resistance. Just wasnt getting that kind of action on the way down. This stock is trading with new metrics, and if you dont catch on ,then your leaving money on the table. And I will be here again to tell you I told you so. Go ahead and sell out Jim, or dont buy shares here. Dont care. You were wrong before my friend, and you will be wrong again.
Relmor: thanks for your input. You are right of course that he doesn’t need an additional 10%, only that it would make him bulletproof. He has everything to gain by increasing the stock price IF, and only IF he DOESN’T plan to takeover. If he plans to take over then he can ride the tide at his obscene interest rate until Mel has wrung the last dollar in cuts out of the company and then move in. Why be the new guy wielding the axe when you can let current management do it for your while your cash piles up? Then if, as stillsirius says, they are about to turn fcf positive toward the end of the year, that would be an excellent time to swoop in.
Hope I didn’t give you a big head writing that your were right about the bankruptcy. LOL Your “support” figure is still 73% down from 6 months ago! Still looking for under .30 as a buy in on the hopes that 1st quarter numbers aren’t as bad as expected, and then a run up between .40-.45
I gave you credit, how about some for me?
Said from my first postings they has to get out of the equipment side, and that came true
Said that their future if at all was as a content provider on cell phone and the internet, and they officially recognize that now.
Said that the sports programming wouldn’t stay on past the point that the content owners could efficiently package their own deals, and I know you saw what MLB is doing with the cell phone app.
Too bas cos couldn’t live to see all this! LOL
You said those things I suppose, but you used to harp on internet radio and slacker, and I dont take those threats seriously. Its undebtable. They arent going to be around, so dont count them as competition. You mentioned the debt too, dont forget. You threw a lot of darts, Ill give you that, and a few stuck. Listen to me now. Your not getting in under .30 cents. That ship has sailed. But you never know with this pig, but I feel your going to be waiting and waiting and miss out on much higher prices soon. I also feel Malone has already made a deal to acquire 10% of the company at prices purchased much lower than this. It would be smart for him to do that. Of couse this is just conjecture, I have no proof, but it is common sense to do this. Why buy higher? Buy now, and let it go up without your purchases hindering it. Remember Jim, he owns 40% of what? 40% of crap? Or 40% of a booming business. Which do you think he would rather own? He bought in low, and will sell high, or just keep it. Not the other way around. You couldnt acquire a company this cheap in normal circumstances, it was an incredible deal for Liberty Media.
INJC.
The FCC and DOJ will not step in again?????
Well……………They are government agencies with mandated charters. Whew. Some days I just can’t take it. This is one of them.
It is clear to me that this site is run by delusional cheerleaders.
The idea that Sirius-XM’s debt issue is a thing of the past is nonsense.
They have only been granted a temporary reprieve.
The fact that they can’t produce a portable radio that actually works and deliberately kill a 3rd party streaming product that does work show Sirius-XM is run by idiots.
The customer service continues to get worse, the service itself is worse, the infrastructure needs workbut nothing has been done and yet prices are going up.
When my 3 subs expire in November, I’m done with Sirius-XM.
I’m sick of being treated poorly as a paying customer.
Anyone who is investing in Sirius-XM for the long haul is a dreamer.
I agree with most of what you are saying but, it is important to point out that they had a legal obligation to kill that 3rd party product because of an exclusive deal they signed with another company. That being said, that other company is clearly a bunch of hacks, otherwise we would have had the app 6 months ago.
Charles.
Great to see you posting. Are you agreeing with the “delusional cheerleaders” line? lol. I would think that would apply mostly to the pumping posters.
Have they ever come close to a top of the line portable radio?
With 3 subs, you must have liked something about the product. I won’t go back to traditional radio and I am not going to spend my time downloading songs.
I bought the 3 subscriptions for Howard Stern.
After purchasing a Stiletto 2 I found out it is completely WORTHLESS as a satellite receiver.
Sirius programming waste millions on crap that no one listens to and the customer service is getting consistently worse.
They still don’t have a working portable solution and they add insult to injury by forcing the Stiletto and ALL internet streams to time out.
So much for recording with a Stiletto.
Sirius management should be fired immediately for GROSS incompetence and abuse of it;s customers.
If Sirius makes it through 2010 it will be a miracle.
My family has the Sirius portable boom box. We have it out on the deck about everyday during the summer. Works great and we love it.
Why are you Guys ‘hating’ on SIRI and BM………..Why even bother posting here………..have you guys lost so much $$$ and ‘can’t get over it’, and so need to spill bile over here ?
Or is it that you guys ‘get off’, picking at the bones of your ‘victims as you try to short them into oblivion ??
Yeesh!!……………you guys Suck Big !!
So let us Dream……………………it’s not your problem, is it ?
draland: Can’t speak for anyone else, but it’s not about hating, it’s just a discussion about the possibilities of an investment. For instance Relmor and I have long disagreed about the long term future of the company, but when they were on death’s door I found his argument compelling that they were not going to immediately go bankrupt. So I mad an investment based on his view that turned out well for me. Maybe someone on here who is heavily long sirius will consider my arguments and hedge their bets with options or in some other way.
What would be the point if we all just wrote about what our favorite Sirius channel was?
Gotcha, but sometimes what comes out is clearly less than just opposing points of views and more like vile commentary!
Kool…………..Bro’
It obvious Tim, that you have not been to a dealer car lot in some time. Go visit one or several this weekend to see why Im long.
Every car you look at will have Sirius installed in the dash. In some SUVs there will be Sirius TV or a Sirius Navigation system.
This is not dreaming, its simply the future of how you will get your portable entertainment. Yes, I am long because of what i am seeing on the streets, not because of a dream. I know the balance sheet needs work. I believe the debt will get fixed.
We are about to see a wave of people needing a new car. You cant hang on to old cars forever.
Sirius will start moving toward a dollar a share soon, mark my word.
S. Malone
Well put SM………….:))
Let’s not even start to think what the potential may be for Sat-Comm capability for all, especially to a stalwart administration, trying to protect their citizenry……. and flex their technological might, but on an individually-empowered basis.
We must not forget how crippled we were as a nation when our traditional means of communications failed that fateful morning……………….9/11
S Malone,
You must be smoking crack.
FTR, I bought a brand new Toyota 2 years ago.
Vehicles are NOT the place to be putting their future.
A truly portable solution and a mobile application for internet streaming IS the place to be.
Sirius marketing and R&D are completely mismanaged and until the people in charge of it are replaced, enjoy your long position. LOL!
You WILL be disappointed.
Sirius has never turned a profit and never will.
That is an unsustainable business plan.
INJC
“ample proof that satrad cannot be a profitable business” pretty strong statement about a merged monopoly that by most accounts could be FCF positive this year with any positive change in the economy. We have about 45 days for the 1Q report… Probably not good, but other than RIMM, whose 1Q will be…Even with decreased sub numbers for 1Q, looking for much narrower loss than last year pro forma.
$10-$20 stock in the future…not in next 3-5 years…but if Malone takes control of Siri, I believe that he would have to buy out other shareholders. Plus, cannot take full control for 3 years, plenty of time for company to become profitable. $100M due to Malone by I believe May of 2010. By no longer having to fund MLB and Nascar escrow acct, payment to Malone should be no problem. Without satelite launch, company would be FCF positive for 2009.
Is this company still struggling…you bet it is, but looking more and more like it will survive in the long run. IMHO
Yet another dreamer
Tim
why are you here…If you hate customer service, mgmt are all idiots, your radios suck…WTF are you still doing here!!!Drop you subs…go annoy people somewhere else…Start pumping Wi-Fi for cars or something. Buy a Slacker G2 and enjoy your contentless programing. Your just a whiney cry baby. I would say why don’t you take your balls and go home. Needless to say, you don’t have any!
If you don’t like my posts, don’t read them.
You are certainly quite the wussy to be worrying about why and what I post.
It certainly seems to bother you.
Sure looks to me like you are the only eunuch here.
I’m here to keep you little delusional cheerleaders honest about Sirius.
I enjoy the content I currently get from Sirius.
That said I listen to a grand total of 4 channels.
I can’t stand the actual radios available from Sirius and I’m still quite ticked about Sirius lying about the Stiletto 100 and Stiletto 2.
The idea that Sirius is this great business model and will survive is a pipe dream.
Sirius goes out of it’s way to screw it’s subscriber base.
Until they fix the extremely poor customer satisfaction and customer service problems, Sirius doesn’t stand a chance.
still sirus: Excellent post! You may be right about the numbers later this year, but that still wouldn’t leave them a profitable business. Yes, Malone would have to buy out everyone, but he would own the board which decides on what numbers to accept. Not sure about your 3 year reference, I may have missed something, which is the value of a forum like this. Could you explain? thanks.
INJC
I believe that Malone and Co are prohibited per the agreement from acquiring more that 49.9% of SiriusXM for 3 years. You are correct, not a profitable business this year. But with cont cost savings from merger combined with increasing revenue, should get closer each year. Possible profitable 2011, again if positive auto #’s and economy boost. SP should cont to rise as long as company’s potential is being realized Qtr to Qtr. With SP rising, over next 3 years(Hopefully) buyout from Malone an Co would also have to go up. I am avg in @.52 for 100K shares. Would gladly take 2-3 per share.
Relmor: I’ll give it another week for the under .30. The rally smells a little stale. If the market drops back a little and Sirius doesn’t, so much the better for your argument!.
Still sirius: They’ve got a completely captive auto market and a virtually non-existent portable receiver market. Probably best if they abandon that market segment all together and concentrate on more cell/internet. Unlikely that people will carry around yet another device no matter what.
Ultimately though, they can’t make money on the current auto subscription rate vs. content cost. Either the subscription cost has to go up or they have to stop spending so much for talent. I have always maintained that most people don’t but for the music but for other things. Many people say that I’m wrong. Time for that theory to be put to the test by jettisoning the big name/big cost talent other than Howard and see what happens.
INJC
The talent costs are basically a fixed cost, that probably will go down when they come up for renegotiation. Combine that with increased penetration/auto sales, internet streaming, increasing weather/gps, and again cont synergies from merger…IMHO I believe that SiriusXM will slowly rise from the grave to be a media powerhouse. Still several years off!!! But to be realistic, things must break their way for a change. Also, MSM must change their sentiment towards SiriusXM…cont to get beat up even with slowly improving #’s
Agreed with eveything written here…..time will grow this little stock of ours until a GIANT!!
Cheers,
-Whynot
anyone know if the masters will be broadcast on xm this weekend?
Brandon,
Very insightful article. The auto industry as a whole will make a comeback this year. There is a bill in the congress which would allow car buyers a 5000.00 check at the point of sale to encourage car buyers to buy. If this becomes law this year (and it very well could) it would amount to several million vehicles being bought before years end (on top of what is already projected). GM may not be around to take full advantage of this as they will be downsizing and parting out the remains of the company in restructuring which could scare off potential consumers in the near term. Combine this possibility with the incentives the car dealers are already offering (paying the loans if you lose your job, employee pricing, extended warranties, etc) and there is a huge possibility that the car industry will regain momentum later this year. All of this bodes well for SIRI. This does not even consider the “great dream” of Liberty to use the excess spectrum of XM for video to cars after consolidating the audio onto Sirius. And then there is the Apple app which will increase the bottom line going forward. The SP seems to be caught in a lull at the moment, but any good news will provide the needed impetus to raise it dramatically.
Thanks for the encouraging and educational perspective!
Long Sirius XM
Let’s not even start to think what the potential may be for Sat-Comm. especially to a Stalwart Administration, trying to protect their citizenry……. and flex their technological might, but perhaps on a more “individually-empowered” basis!
We must not forget how crippled we were as a nation when our traditional means of communications failed that fateful morning……………….9/11………………..!!!
I do, N.Y.
PS:
Pardon the allusion to the ‘doomsday’ scenario; it is extreme, but all things aside, not bad having a sat-phone handy!!
Just another perk……don’t pay for it if you don’t want it!! LOL!!
mlongj,
Just reading your post encourages me, and if things break just right – and they may – satellite radio could finally get off the launching pad and soar to new heights. The government and the auto industry/dealers need to come up with some irresistable incentives to create enthusiasm – otherwise their will be millions of cars sitting in lots all over the country for a long, long time. You would think that the dealers would REALLY lower the cost of the cars at this point, just to move them out. They make the real money later on anyway, when you go back for service and parts. That’s when they look at you the way a hungry jackal looks at it’s injured prey, their demeanor being basically “you came back to us, sucka, and now we’re gonna feast on your wallet.”
Satellite radio is such a natural option to have in an automobile. If they can get people into the showrooms, and do a little creative marketing ( and turn enough phones into little satellite radio receivers!), then this company could start to make some noise. If that bill in Congress were to pass, that would be a huge shot in the arm for satellite. People may not be buying cars at the moment, but sooner or later the tide will turn; the American public has an intrinsic love and fascination for their “wheels”, and the cars they’re driving are getting long in the tooth. I predict that sales for ’09 will exceed last year, and then will slowly rise as incentives are initiated. This should be the ultimate buyers market, and the dealers should be bending over backwards to kiss the asses of any potential customer!
there… not their (whatever)
:))
Well Said !
Nyt, nyt……………..gotta go get ready to make dough for the new set-O-Wheels !!
Peace, Out !
As Brandon noted in a previous article, Sirius does not make money on it’s contract with GM. Does anyone have more detailed info on the other manufacturer’s contracts as to which are money makers or losers?
INJC
I’m pretty sure that Cos1000, john, Brandon, Newman, or Homer can probably answer that for you. Go to the Forum section and start a thread asking for input on the different auto agreements. Sounds like you might just be starting to see the light!!!LOL
LOL Well, it’s alchemy after all isn’t it? Suppose you get the wrong mix, more subscribers where you don’t make money, and less where you do! The bottom line, as you and I have discussed, is that currently the company isn’t profitable on subscription revenue. Adding X number of auto subs sounds great but free cash flow is not the same as net profit. Churn rate will also be key. As Starbucks has shown, you can keep adding lots of stores, while having to close even more than you open. I’m not looking beyond the 1Q numbers, trying to guess about the pop or drop. God love the people who believe they know what next year will look like!
INJC
I agree with everything you just said…but, churn as of end of 4qtr relatively stable…must be fcf positive before net profit, getting closer…synergies taking full effect qtr after qtr…If you just look at company through 1st qtr agreed, may not look great…guidance for 2nd qtr/EOY will be key. Iphone app will help, internet streaming will help. Glad that we can agree to disagree.
What all you dreamers aren’t taking into account is that Sirius is in the Howard Stern business.
Howard Stern isn’t in the Sirius business.
The minute that Stern leaves Sirius at the end of his contract, put a fork in it.
Without Stern, Sirius will die VERY QUICKLY.
He is the sole reason they have achieved anything in the SatRad business.
Hey tim you must have cable tv right,well their customer service sucks too and they constantly raise their prices,so did you cut out your cable and go to Sat tv?oh i forgot they suck too..getting my drift here.it’s all about the content,want it,pay for it,or go back to listening to old FM wrap shit..
Tim
It’s obvious that you have not read my posts very closly…you call me one of the delusional cheerleaders…but you fail to note that in each of my posts, I have a giant dose of reality listed in them. Yes, I do believe that SiriusXM will survive, and thrive…but not in the next 1-2 years! they still have alot to overcome in the near future. If customer service is as bad as you state it is, I can add another item to the list of things to improve on! But I have one question for you. Why did John Malone and Liberty invest 500M in SiriusXM if they were toast in the next year, year and a half as you believe?
It should be obvious that Malone sees value in the infrastructure and possibly the business.
It’s also obvious that he doesn’t trust Sirius management.
Malone’s position only gets stronger as Mel Karmizan takes Sirius to the bottom.
Johnny
Why is it that if you think SiriusXM is going to be a media powerhouse…you/we are delusional…But if you state that SiriusXM sucks and is going BK or will not survive past 2010…you are viewed as superhero!
I am simply stating my opinion.
If you don’t like it, too bad.
If you don’t agree with it, too bad.
You have your opinions and have not a single sound business principal upon which to form them.
As a business currently operating, Sirius is a bad business.
I have a small cable company where I live.
It’s not great but the customer service is FAR better than Sirius-XM.
Tim
You have your opinion and I have mine. I guess only time will tell!
Anyone thinking this stock is going to soar should take a look at the article below. It is a powerpoint presentation and takes about 45 minutes to view, but well worth the time, especially toward the end.
So Scary and Depressing.
If taken “literally” it is the herald of the collapse of the world financial system, if ever fully disclosed……….truth be told……….who can truly expose this in its entirety?
It would likely spell a JFK scenario for the current administration, were they bold enough to try, I mean let’s keep it real…………..I’m pissed to think, and I am a Grandfather of 7, kicking ass in my forties, losing half a Million which I’ve never seen !!
Can you imagine the tsunami of “grandma’s” who will come out…………….?
Do Ya think “they “knew this as they perpetrated “their” crimes?
Ya think “they” cared?
And then lastly, Ya think “they” had back?
Back enough to “humble” the SEC………..for Decades??!!
Ergo……..they have”back enough” to silence a Presidency…………………Like I said…….Scary!!
Thanks, I “think”……………………
PS: this is a more in depth presentation of the : http://www.deepcapture.com/
and : http://antisocialmedia.net/
presentations…………..Makes you lose faith in the process of investing……………..God Help Us All.
Best Buy’s displays suck!!! Went there yesterday they have the large display ‘box’ for both Sirius & XM but no sign, no radios, nothing. They look like two pieces of junk.
Where’s the great marketing?
Sirius has given up on the portable receiver business and no longer supports it with merchant dollars. They realize only the car receivers and cell phone/internet are viable. No one is going to carry around yet one more device.
INJC
Again you make a blanket statement that “Sirius has given up on the portable receiver business and no longer supports it with merchant dollars” With the switch to Audiovox as the distributor for SiriusXM products, there has been a long delay in getting new product to the shelf. I believe that in the near future, SirusXM will rollout new products and again make a strong marketing push for retail subs in the portable market! But everyday they wait, they do fall farther behind! But if they have given up as you state, with apps for the Iphone, followed by the blackberry etc, they will be able to cover the market without everyone having to carry around another device.
Until you own an xmp3 you can’t pass judgement on sirius xm portables and them not having a future.
My XMP3 plus my phone in my pocket are no bigger or heavier than my phone by itself was 2 years ago.
I can record 5 channels at one time, so in 8 hours of sleeping i can get 40 hours of content that i would have never heard in my lifetime (because im sleeping and sirius xm’s night dj shows are some of the best, because they are made for partiers and i have a day job, so i record them and listen at work)
Party on SIRI!