A Glutton For Punishment
I have been avoiding the task of writing anything regarding Sirius XM of late. The truth is the last several articles I wrote were met with a slew of negative responses and personal attacks. My position was and and remains for the recently approved reverse split as well as a share offering to precede what I perceive as the inevitable reverse split.
Now that Sirius XM shareholders have approved the boards recommendations, and filings have been made with the SEC, I thought I might persuade a few of my critics to see things as I do.
For starters, SIRI is a 12 cent stock. I agree that it should not be. but the simple truth remains…12 CENTS! In my opinion, the reason that it is a 12 cent stock is that far too many shares are outstanding and that makes manipulation all too easy. Most people look at the managements convert offering following the merger as the culprit, which I attribute to Jim Cramer and his “bond bully” scenario.
Although I believe he was partially correct, the new outstanding share balance following the merger of Sirius and XM is more likely the culprit. With a ton of debt, it was far too easy to bet against Satellite Radio’s future, whether shares were available to short or not. Just look at how quickly the stock went down following the merger and the creation of a monopoly. Most would agree that it made little sense.
As for the thought of bankruptcy that these shorts have bet the farm on, it will not happen. Sirius XM listeners tend to be SIRI investors. Bankruptcy would all but put Sirius XM out of business permanently. If you thought the cries that followed the channel consolidation were loud, imagine the bang that would follow a bankruptcy announcement. In my opinion, it is not even a remote possibility.
Investors have been screaming for management to take action against not only the suppressed stock price but the manipulators as well. With the company’s new plan seemingly written in stone, it appears to me that Sirius XM management is doing just that. By raising the price it achieves 2 goals. One of which is to avoid any future delisting possibilities, and the other to allow institutions that cannot buy Sirius XM for their portfolios to do just that.
The inevitable reverse split reduces the outstanding number of shares which means not only less shares available to short but also less shares available to purchase, resulting in a rising stock price.
The pain of this has already been realized, and its time to begin looking ahead to the future of SIRI, which may have never since its creation looked better from an investment standpoint.
Position:Â Long Sirius XM
Isn’t a reverse split a zero sum game? If one shorts or buys a thousand dollars worth of SIRI stock, isn’t it the same? Mel has stated clearly that a reverse split would only be used if needed to stay listed on the Nasdaq and he also stated that he didn’t see how that would add any shareholder value. I hope that he stays true to his word. A reverse split is purley psychological and really means nothing. The value you have in the company as a shareholder is all the same. One could argue that some institutions can’t buy “penny stocks”, but they have according to the SEC filings. Dilution, on the other hand, does change shareholder value, but with the shares trading at .12 the question is – how much is priced in? I think more than will ever be needed…
I believe in SIRI’s case a reverse split will not be a zero sum game. It will be initially, but the longer term will result in price appreciation. Most reverse splits don’t work, because the underlying fundamentals are just poor. In Siri’s case, the company continues to grow revenue and decrease costs. Profitability is on the horizon, and taking away the means of manipulation will result in benefits to siri stockholders.
No question that SIRI has been manipulated, but how does a RS change that? If one buys or shorts SIRI with a thousand dollars, what’s the difference? I don’t understand how that would change anything at all, except maybe psychologically – retail investors tend to like “cheap” stocks. It makes them feel better to buy a thousand shares, rather than a hundred shares. If anything, a RS would make the stock seem more expensive to the retail investor psychologically…
On any given day, there are nearly 1.5 billion shares to short against. 1.5 billion! Its far too easy to short siri. A 50 for 1 reverse split makes that number 30 million. That changes the availability of shares to short against dramatically.
Investing is a game of supply and demand. And up until now, the supply of shares has exceeded the demand. That lowers the price.
Think about the volume that siri trades on any given day. With few shares available to buy, much less short, the price MUST rise.
I think that a RS in Sirius case would be a good thing. There are far too many shares outstanding, and that has been one of the big drags on the stock. I’d say in this case, it would be a good thing.
I know it takes getting use to but you guys can reply at the same level. I wonder how I can make this more intuitive for users?
Exactly what I was thinking Charles. I don’t see any way to improve it right now. I would give it some more time, to let people get use to the new format.
If I think of anything, I will throw it your way.
Hope everyone had a good New Years!!!
Just glad its over, and January will hopefully be interesting for the markets.
You DO realize that a 50 for 1 reverse split would virtually ensure anyone whose been holding for a few years will NEVER ever come close to break even.
And that your enthusiasm…however realistic….might rub these folk the wrong way.
Just saying.
Me. I’m one of those longs who will most likely get screwed. But I’ve long since accepted this fate and hold no ill will towards proponents of the RS such as yourself.
Heck, I’m not even pissed at Mel anymore.
It is what it is. And I have learned a VALUABLE lesson with this stock. Siri is the FIRST and LAST stock i will ever buy strictly on hype. I mostly focus on alt fuel stocks such as solar and wind….and went outside my comfort zone with Sirius.
Unfortunately, I got in it at the EXACT wrong time….and held on hope of the merger. Averaging down the entire time, I thought I was being smart.
I resisted selling at near break even a few times….so I have no one to blame but myself.
The drop after the merger was sickening, but I continued to average down all the way to a buck before realizing the futility of hope.
I did buy another 4,000 shares for a measly $500 tho the other week. But will buy no more. Not with the threat of the RS so strong now.
I fully expect to NEVER come close to breaking even. If the 50 for 1 RS happens, Siri will have to break $100 for me to break even. NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.
All the money I am saving now, is going for OTHER investments. My only regret is that I didn’t pull out of Sirius exactly a year ago. I would have lost some money, but would have had alittle over 20 grand to play with now.
But again…the past is the past. I blame no one but myself. Time to move on.
I guess if I had extra money to burn, the ONLY way I’d invest in Sirius again would be AFTER the 50 for 1 RS and IF the price dropped because of the economy and another short attack. Like Brandon says, there won’t be as many shares left to short….so if the price drops alot….I MAY…..look at Sirius again….BUT ONLY if I have extra money after investing in other stocks I missed out on because I was stuck in Sirius the last 3 years.
Anyone thinking of buying huge amounts of Sirius now just because it’s at 12 cents expecting it to double or triple BEFORE a reverse split are playing a risky game in my opinion.
I too played this game, thinking I was being smart, and got burned.
I wish you luck, but this stock has got the VOODOO vibe going on, and I ain’t going near it.
My bank account is FINALLY starting to grow again little by little, and I’ll be damned if I’m going to throw it right back into Sirius at this point. NO WAY.
Solar play ESLR has a better chance of going from $3 to $9 then Sirius has of going from .12cents to 24 cents before a RS.
BE CAREFUL with this one. It’s cursed. 🙂
Tyler-
For what it’s worth, I agree with everything you have said in this posting.
Also, in addition to getting the stock price up to where there will be less shares available for shorting and probably more buying by the funds, a higher stock price will bring in a higher amount of money to the company if and when it issues new shares. And, a higher stock price will stop the constant media mantra of a “12 cent stock”. That will be worth a lot in leading to higher sentiment, in my opinion.
I also agree that with increasingly more positive fundamentals (aside from debt), a reverse split will not have the negative affect it would have it Sirius XM were a “failing” company.
Happy New Year all!
This was not Tyler’s article, it was Brandon’s. Just FYI.
I just realized that this article was written by Brandon. Sorry for not giving you credit! Thanks Brandon – it is you I agree with (in addition to agreeing with stuff Tyler has written in the past).
DOH! Ok, you caught yourself. Sorry. Thats what I get for not reading ahead…
“If you thought the cries that followed the channel consolidation were loud, imagine the bang that would follow a bankruptcy announcement. In my opinion, it is not even a remote possibility.”
Not even a remote possibiltiy???…I don’t know if that statement is ignorant or irresponsible…did you say not a remote possibility???…I’m not bashing you, I guess if thats really your opinion…oh well.
And God knows I sure hope your right.
Well said SteveSirius…but I’d reserve “hope” for ONLY those who either recently got into the stock or have YET to get into it. Like I said in my previous post, anyone whose been in this stock long term and whose average share price is in the $3 to $5 range can pretty much kiss ANY hope of EVER getting close to break even should a 1 for 50 reverse split happen. As mentioned those people will have to see Sirius go to over $100 just to break even. NOT GOOD.
Hell, even those of us who have averaged down to between $1 and $2 are up shits creek without a paddle.
I’ve been so shell shocked by this stock, I feel like Mickey Rourke’s character in the “Wrestler”. To quote Randy the Ram in that movie….”like a tired used up piece of meat.” Lol.
Anyway…I’ve pretty much resolved myself to losing all 30 grand of my original investment in this stock. Kissed it goodbye.
It’s hard for me to even get excited or hopeful about what will happen AFTER a RS. I know Brandon thinks it’ll FINALLY give the stock elbow room to move UP……
um…..but….I’ve been thru hell with this stock and heard so many “predictions” and “promises” to last a lifetime. Sirius has ALWAYS seemed to do the EXACT opposite of what us longs THOUGHT would or SHOULD happen.
We heard the likes of Jim Cramer say that Sirius would go to $5 after the merger and on and on.
None of it came true.
So….it is with a grain of salt….especially in THIS economy and what is happening to the auto industry….that I’d take ANY and ALL predictions concerning Sirius NO MATTER WHAT.
Having said that….good luck to anyone who decides to roll the dice and take a chance with this stock.
Me? I’ve paid my money down. I’m moving on to greener pastures.
do you think its smart brandon or tyler to buy enough shares so after the 50 for 1 you will have 1000 shares,what is that 50,000 shares, i have 10 thou now so i need only 40 more.at these levels is this a good idea knowing im holding for 10 more years.i know your not a financial advisor but just wanted to know you guys opinion.thanks anf happy new year
Charles/Tyler
What do you guys feel about reorganization as far as it being a reasonable possibility. While you might not think it will happen, do you think its a reasonable or REMOTE possibility?
I dunno Michael. Tyler and Brandon may be more optimistic….but I’ve been in this stock for over 4 years now, and it has CONSISTENTLY done the EXACT OPPOSITE of what the hopeful longs and positive analysts have predicted.
If you only need 40,000 more shares thats about $4,800 at the current .12 cent price.
The 50 for 1 reverse split would bump the stock price to $6…which sounds great. But I am not as confident as Brandon seems to be that the shorts won’t be able to knock this stock down again. Especially in this economy. Again….Sirius has continually done the opposite of what it was “suppose” to do…so I’d be wary.
However the old adage…”nothing ventured nothing gained” may tempt you.
If you can afford to LOSE all $4800….then by all means…go for it.
Me personally? Having gone thru what I have with this stock…I’d put my money elsewhere. But thats just me.
I don’t give investment advice or recommend stocks….but if I had more money burning a hole in my pocket right now….I’d look towards other stocks. Case in point…Obama will be sworn in this month. Once he is, look at certain sectors to benefit immediately. Two sectors which will most likely get a fresh infusion of cash are the “green” stocks and the “Bio tech/stem cell” stocks.
The economy is in the shitter tho…so nothing is a sure thing. Still…I’d feel safer throwing your money into a solar play like ESLR right now over Sirius.
ESLR is off it’s 1 year low….but still waaaaay below it’s one year high. Once Obama throws solar a bone…I could see ESLR going back up to $9 before I could see Sirius going to $18 after a 1 for 50 reverse split. Seriously. So if you want to possibly triple your $4,800…..I’d sooner put it into ESLR than SIRI.
Again…thats just me.
Good luck in whatever you do.
Sirius was an exciting stock full of promise and it lured me in 4 years ago. But I got burned. And with so much debt…and the auto industry in its current state…and the threat of a RS, further dilution…and possible BK….I’d run from this stock. At least I wouldn’t throw ALL my mad money into it thats for sure. Not before I invested in other stocks would I dump some more mad money into Sirius.
Peace out.
First of all…. Happy New Year To All… with hopes of a more prosperous 2009.
It seems to me the discussion of a RS in absence of any discussion of the Company’s fundamentals is futile. While it is true that the dilution of shares at the merger and lending 263M shares for the purpose of Shorting the stock, are contributors to the current 12 cent SP, it is also true that the $1.1B (now around $.98B) of debt coming due in 2009 and negative FCF are also in the list of culprits. A Discussion of BK, brought on by all the debt restructuring uncertainty, in tough financial markets, is also not adding positive drivers to the discussion and reality of Company’s present Stock Price.
The bottom line on whether a RS split will help at any ratio is going to be mainly dependent on the conditions of the company’s fundamentals. Resolve the debt issues for 2009 and what happens to the stock’s price? Improve 1st and 2nd quarter Auto performance / sales and sat rad penetration, and what happens to the company’s stock price?
If dilution of the Common Shares were a cause for the company’s stock price not rebounding, then all a company would need to do is simply remove dilution with a RS and watch their stock’s price soar. This is rarely the case. Manipulation of the stock’s price is possible because of all the negative perceptions and realities in the current sat rad environment. Easier or more difficult because of the number of shares does not matter. The Fundamentals allow the price to be kept down and the manipulation to continue at any amount of shares in the Float.
My point is that whether we want to hear it or not, uncertainty about debt restructuring and all of its possible manifestations that can hurt the common shareholder (convertible debt, high interest rates, further dilution, or inability to refinance) are a main cause for the stock’s price being what it is. Some stocks are priced for perfection, but Sirius is priced for disaster. The dilution of the stock can be dealt with at any time after the second quarter or even third. The ratio for the split and its eventual success will be dependent on the successful (beneficial to share holders) debt restructuring, improved retail OEM penetration, beating subscriber and revenue growth projections, and so on. The Fundamentals required for them to run a successful business model. IMHO, without changing the Fundamentals the RS will just be another way for those betting against the company’s success to profit again.
cos: You make a very good point.
A RS by itself would be a disaster. It is nothing more than a sign of despiration.
HOWEVER, if the company were to use the reverse split AFTER it restructured it’s upcoming debt responsibilities, then the RS may work like a charm. Using one of Tyler’s old terms, it would almost require a “perfect storm” in order to work (one which has been brewing for quite some time however)
1) The economy begins to pick up.
2) Financial situation begins to reverse.
3) Fueled by a better economy and financial situation, the OEMs start selling more cars.
4) Higher penetration in those new cars
5) Announcement of debt restructuring.
6) A quarter or two of exceeding expectations
7) Announcment of a reverse split.
If all of those happen, then the RS could be a good thing. However, if all of those happen, the RS may not even be NEEDED, though it may still be helpful.
Newman,
I agree. Why put the cart (the RS) in front of the horse (all the restructuring and business plan execution that needs to be done first). As you say and I also agree, with good execution, the RS may not be needed. At that time maybe like other Healthier companies, a Stock Purchase plan can be implemented in the years ahead.
newman, if all those things happen, why wouldn’t sirius just buy back shares when possible?
I prefer to take Black, Karmazin and Blalock into a small room and beat their faces bloody. This trio have purposely destroyed this company for their own personal gain. You can spin it as you like it and Brandon admits the stock is manipulated. Brandon, have you, Tyler, Charles and Newman ever try to figure out or investigate who it is that is manipulating this stock instead of speculating its future? Do something constructive and find out the true facts behind the stock dropping to .12. We all know Cramer was involved….we all know when Karmazin went on his show that it was all an act.
Why should we investigate when it is all right there at http://www.deepcapture.com.
The problem is, even if you know what is going on, the people that regulate the manipulators are also the ones who will go to work for them when they get out of the SEC. There is no enforcement. This whole Madoff thing? They have known about it since 1999, yet they did nothing.
If you are so insterested, why ask us to do the investigating? Why dont you go out there and get the scoop yourself?
Maybe as a group we can do something. The only one who has the balls is Hartleib. The rest here have no balls and would rather spin it.
Hartlieb is a conspiracy theorist and you have taken his bait and jumped head long into it. There is no proof that Mel and co have done ANYTHING WRONG. Come up with proof. Hartlieb still has posted absolutely nothing confirming his suspicions.
Suppose I were to tell you I heard several phone conversations between Black and Karmizan.
Suppose I were to tell you that during those conversations that the main topic of talk was taking the company private and wiping out shareholders through BK.
Suppose I were to tell you that during those conversations Blalock was named the mastermind of putting together the toxic closing deal. Blalock is tauted for having over 20 years of short experience.
Suppose I were to tell you that Goldman Saks and Cramer are big players in this and that Karmizan’s last appearance on Mad Money was an act to deceive shareholders.
Do you know believe in conspiracies…Newman?
I am sitting in the corner shivering with my tinfoil hat on.
And your short wave radio. Nice……….
Just what I suspected. No one has the balls to challenge my post. This leads me to suspect that this site is run by Mel and Co.
Are you really a SiriusXMinvestor or a SiriusXMImPoster!
ok SiriusXMInvestor, I will challenge your post:
PROVE IT.
If you have recorded tapes, post the audio clips on the net. Email them to me, or send me a link via private message in the forums.
It is amazing that we hear about all of this “proof”, yet we never hear or see it.
PROVE IT.
SiriusXM Investor…..
I was going to stay away from commenting, but feel the need to bring up a few things.
1. Being “constructive” does not mean bowing to your demands to “investigate sales and manipulation of the this stock”. We do not have access to the investment strategies of these investors, nor do we have the financing, let alone the power to obtain such information. Rather than relying on us to do this investigation, why don’t you do it yourself? You have asked time and time again for us to do your bidding. Step up and do it yourself.
2. This site is not run by Mel nor anyone at Sirius XM. This site is independent of the company in every way. Your “suspicion” that this site is run by Sirius XM leads me to believe that other things you say are questionable.
3. You say you have “heard conversations between Mel and Leon Black”. I have heard you make this claim before. I have yet to see anyone prove that these conversations ever took place, let alone were recorded and distributed to people such as yourself. If you have heard such tapes it would 1)be insider information, 2) an illegal act by not bringing such information to the proper authorities, and 3) might be troublesome for you because you are disseminating such information.
4. You say Paul Blalock has 20 years experience as a short? Look at this link.
It shows 16 years of investor relations work, mostly at Nextel. If Paul spent 16 years in investor relations, and 4 years at Sirius for investor relations, where do these other 20 years you speak of come from? Paul is in his 40’s. Was he shorting stocks in his first grade class?
I would suggest that you double check what you are using for your sources, reconsider what you are posting, and think about doing your own investigation without reliance on someone else.
SiriusXMInvestor
if you have tapes of phone conversations, they could have only been obtained 1 of 2 ways. Either Federal investigation(you would not have access to these) or illegally. Therefore: shut up!
Charles/Tyler
Why give SiriusXMinversor the opportunity to play his recordings. Why not give him the radio show on Thur night to put his tapes where his F..in mouth is? that way we can all listen to them.
Read my post again…..I said suppose I heard. The 20 year short experience came directly from the horses mouth. I think Newman is some what on the right track when in his post he includes the deepcapture site. At least he is acknowledging manipulation. I believe the SiriusXM issue is alot worse than Overstock. Why, because I believe the CEO, board members and other insiders are involved in the manipulation. I am willing to come up with $1000.00 to fund an investigation into how we went from $3.93 to .12 in less than a year. In my opinion, nothing has changed that would effect this horrible drop in pps. We all knew the debt was due in 2009. This should not have surprised everyone or anyone. So tell me what has changed? One million less cars made in 2009? Is it really the debt? Is Mel really trying to get financing? We will know by March 1.
SiriusXMInvestor
I suppose you could be also be full of shit! Anyone can make crap up. Be careful with your words. Your Slanderous comments directed toward the CEO, BOD, and other insiders is a civil offense and much easier to prove. Please do everyone here a favor. Just go away!
This stock, and all stocks have been manipulated for decades. It does not take a conspiracy or management participation for it to happen. It simply takes observation, some insight into sentiment, and capital. A hedge fund talks to another, and another, and before long you have sellers galore. With no uptick rule, it is a free shooting gallery.
After December 2007 passed without merger approval, this stock was a sitting duck. Between arbs shorting SIRI and going long XM to lock in profits, and no news for week after week, this stock took a virtual beating.
I have seen the Karmazin/Black wiretap information posted a few times. Anyone having such information (if it were to even exist) would have it ileagally on several levels. People would be well advised to not participate in such disimmination of this rumor because they could find themselves linked to troubles I can not begin to lay out here.
There is not one iota of tangible evidence that links Sirius manangement and the BOD to anything regarding manipulation. Heck, this BOD has only been in place since the merger for god’s sake!
I have seen opinions and speculation, but not an ounce of proof on this subject. Just conjecture, and as yet, it has been MONTHS and nothing has happened!
I have asked npeople time and time again to PRODUCE proof of their claims, and not a single time has anyone done so.
Bones: It will be at least 3 years, and probably closer o 5 years, before Sirius is in a position to buy back shares. They have to pay off debt first. In the mean time, the high float makes the company 1) diluted and 2) easily manipulatable. By doing the reverse split, it efectively reduces the ease of manipulation (not eliminates, reduces) and causes and artificial form of anti-dilution.
I would love to see a share buy-back program, but it will not happen anytime soon.
COS1000… You are absolutely correct, positive change in the fundementals will drive this game. Tax selling is done now, lets hope for Q4 with expected sub adds, better than expected synergy savings, and FCF from multiyear/lifetime buys, best of etc. Friggen, I still think that you can break even, or even profit here. Hope for the best. Happy New Year to all
I hope so KRYTO1
I grabbed a lifetime sub, with best of,
I heard some positive speculation, about the banks. The analyst said that they were waiting for 09 to start lending. I am assuming they just wanted to flush out all of the bad paper for 08, and previous years, before they start to lend again. I hope this is the case, and then the credit markets will start flowing again.
He explained in order how the thaw of credit would cascade down threw the markets, but I can’t recall the order of who would be affected from first to last, or how long it would take.
I am praying that this will happen, and happen soon, we are on the clock.
i guess the 1st question one would have to ask is, after the r/s what would stop karmazin from issuing more shares down the road? it is very hard to believe anything siri management has to say at this point. but just for the sake of arguing, why buy more stock when the insiders have no desire to buy siri stock, i believe that tells all
Here we go another Rocket Scientist “They have more stock already then YOU can ever imagine….I believe your Name tell it all (R U NUTS)
hey sworntwofun research the equity and you will see what i am saying. i have owned shares for over 4 years and the only insider to purchase shares is karmazin,and that was to save face
R U NUTS…I understand better now (about your position and I feel for You..You have a long way to get up again…Sorry)But thats a very expensive face lift…I actually starting buying heavy after that purchase..So if that was a front it worked.. but I Dont Believe it.. Mel has a Very Highly respected back ground. Its a New Year and a New Era where CEOs will be held accountable for their companies success or failure…I Dont think Mel would want to be remembered as a Loser or someone who hurt people who believe in him and love Sirius..But one thing is for sure..We will all know very soon…
Good Luck
COS..
You are right on the money.The RS is not needed now or should be implemented.
Postive cash flow each quarter will move the stock price up. A RS without positive cash flow each quarter makes no difference.All you have done is an RS. It will be shorted for the same reasons it has always been shorted.
The problem with SiriusXM is that they have have NEVER made money and they have a Ton of debt.That is what they have been known for from the time both companies started.
A lot of investors, analysts, and lenders still do not believe Sat radio can make money or service the debt with good reason. It has been true!!
Service the debt,bring in positive cash flow each quarter and the stock price will rise.
imho
Vaporgold
Vapor. Good post, straight to the heart of the pps problem.
Positive Cash Flow Vs. Debt and Time.
I think SiriusXM is finally in a position that it will make postive cash flow each quarter. It has been a long time coming with a lot of stomach turning events.
The question now is, can SiriusXM get the lenders to lend? or is SiriusXM finally out of time?
To me that is the only question, and I think the money we have invested finally comes down to that point. The company is finally making good progress, growing by double digits which is really fantastic in this ecomony, but do the lenders see it? Do they even want to see it? will they lend at something SiriusXM can live with?
imho
Vaporgold
Hey Vapor, we dropped Fox a conservative network. Maybe we are applying for a Tarp soon???? lol.
I’m worried about myself in 2009. Last two articles my opinions line up with Newman……………….lol, just kidding Newman, like you thoughts on the R/S.
Give Brandon credit he forced Friggen out of retirement.
Well we will know soon, how it goes. I’m hoping Tyler will get some insight into the possible debt deals coming in a few short weeks.
Happy New Year!
Dread your NOG is smokin hot today.
Would have been nice to get in at 2.05, but I will take 2.36. Hope it keeps going on low volume.
Now where is that damn time machine!!
Why not tarp…they are opening it up to car vendors….
My poor little head is still spinning from this stock!!!
But I’m a stuck long term investor…sigh
Mel does not have to do a reverse until 12/31/09 according to the proxy as well as the SEC delisting extension.
By then SIRI will be making cash according to Mel’s plan.
If the plan fails then no reverse will be needed.
You ever see a stock more range bound than Siri right now. The market good move 200 pts either way, and this thing just gets manipulated every day to stay right where it is until the February debt is resolved.
There is no reason right now we shouldn’t see an upward trend with the good new on GM, F and Gmac. But now way no how does it.
Management could and is obligated in my opinion to force the share price UP. It could simply be buying 10 million shares for 1 million bucks. Not hard at all to stop this manipulation.
So why don’t they?????????????? hmmmmmmmmmmmm.
Read my post above. Because Mel needs to BK the company.
Keeping on open mind on every angle. Believe that in a few shorts weeks most of the conspiracy theories will be proved true or false and we will be wherever it is we are going.
Strange as it ever was…………..
Heartbeat City…
Here we go again………..
SCRF…
Happy New Year..
We are sitting here on the death watch or waiting for a miracle and I don’t which is going to happen for sure.
Yeah,I don’t know where that .12 cent cement came from, but that baby holds better then super glue…
vaporgold
Why is everyone complaining about a reverse split and that investors will never make their money back on a R/S. I agree they usually don’t work, but it’s because of the fundamentals that cause shorts to jump and drag it down. If Sirius can be cash flow positive in 09, then a reverse split won’t matter it will only help.
The market cap will determine were this stock goes. Right now it’s valued under 500 million. If you think a 10 bagger will occur it will need to grab a market cap of 5 billion. Doesn’t matter if the price is .12 or $6.
Although manipulation can also work to the upsdie as well as the down. Thus I will agree that a short term double on a trade would be easier at .12 than it would at $6. The Market is not efficient, it just pretends to be.
I’m sorry HopeForSirius but you must be smoking something. You have it all backwards in your analysis of what leads what. You’re misinformation to others is a very bad thing.
Brandon, right on. With no BK the longs have a great chance. Two to five years from now this will be a stable and profitable company. Most of the writers predicting the demise of SIRIUS XM do not have all of the facts. They ignore any positive. Many may have a hidden interest.
Brandon, I couldn’t agree more. The company goes out of business if they file for bankruptcy. I have 8 subscriptions and would cancel all but the lifetime if they did. Adding more shares kind of sucks, but if it means a reduction in debt that’s fine. They can do a 50 to 1 reverse split for all I care. The market cap can’t go any lower.
I have four and I will be canceling mine also. I told my two kids already that there is a possibilty that their sub may be history in the very near future. They were not happy.
SiriusXMInvestor
What are you waiting for. Mel is going to BK the company anyway! Why don’t you sell your 4 shares of stock while your at it. Go away.
This from Today’s Financial News:
“One of the most important rules of investing is to never get emotionally involved with your portfolio. Your positions must represent fundamentally sound companies with a strong potential to generate positive cash flows and growing earnings.
Unfortunately, too many Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) investors are not heeding this advice. They have their hearts tied to the failing company and are paying desperately as Mel Karmazin rides the company into bankruptcy.
A quick glimpse at the comments following nearly every columnist’s bearish thoughts on Sirius prove my point. Judging by the amount of name calling, twisted facts and just plain lunacy present on so many Sirius-based message boards, it is obvious tensions are high and hopes are dim. Either that or fifth-graders are investing more than ever.
Let me get you a tissue
Unfortunately, with the value of their shares down to just $0.12, it is too late for many Sirius investors to find a path towards profitability. After all, when you are down 95% on the year, what is another couple of percentage points?
To blame the company’s problems on anything but poor capital structure, a weak management team and an upside-down business model is ludicrous.
Short sellers, analysts and hedge funds did not drive Sirius’ share price to where it is today. Instead, a lack of liquidity and huge amounts of dilution are taking money straight from the pockets of once-loyal investors.
If you want to make money off of this company, your best bet is to sell. Sell your satellite radio receiver on eBay and unload what is left of your shares. Both of them will be worthless soon enough.
Converting debt into worthless stock will do nothing for current shareholders but dilute their positions even further. Why do you think Moody’s just cut the company’s rating another notch? It was not because the rating agency thought Howard Stern was not funny.
If Wall Street thought the company had a viable plan to get rid of its billion-dollar debt load, shares would not be plummeting.
Sirius is a trap that emotional investors are pushing each other out of the way to fall into. Do not join them. Wall Street is no place for emotions, especially in this market.”
sorry Charles . . . I did not notice this topic over in the forums before I posted it. remove if you wish
With respect to the Financial News article…. WOW, A COMPLETELY NEW TAKE ON THE COMPANY! Maybe we win, maybe we lose, but fuck these guys.
“Maybe we win, maybe we lose, but fuck these guys.”
Krypto1…. I like that! “Financial News”; who the hell cares what these assholes think – I know I don’t. Everybody is an expert prognosticator with this satellite radio. I’ve never seen or heard so many geniuses in my entire life! These dildos don’t know a Goddamn thing as far as I’m concerned, and to start shooting off from their fat pie holes, telling people to sell their shares (and their radios) is irresponsible and thoughtless.
All I know is this: every time I turn on my satellite radio – and it has been 3 years now – I am transported to a place far away from my mudane, pitiful, desperate, lonely, pathetic excuse for a life…. to a peaceful, tranquil, romantic oasis of beautiful music and fascinating talk and news. I can’t achieve this near miracle with terrestrial radio, or any other of the competition out there. Terrestrial transports me to a barron wasteland of top 20 hits, Bush adminisration supported propaganda talk shows, and so many commercials an hour that you just want to take the piece of shit radio and throw it against the wall!
All you experts out there, please do me one favor; DO NOT COMMENT on SATELLITE RADIO unless you own it and listen to it. And pay for it. If you don’t want to abide by these rules, then KEEP YOUR FUCKING MOUTHS SHUT !!! If the economy hadn’t been decimated by the biggest asshole of a President in history, if the auto industry didn’t fuck up so much, and our own government hadn’t spent 17 months trying to kill an entire industry (and still is), nobody would be predicting the outlandish doom and gloom that we are subjected to on a daily basis. Whether it be The Financial News, or the several bashing anonymous douche bags and the like, the bottom line is that nobody really knows what is going to happen. This massive collection of alleged satellite radio certified experts can kiss my ASS. I don’t respect their opinions, and it is intrusive and unconscionable for any individual or organization to go around dispensing advice on a subject they know nothing about. I will guarantee all of you that there is way more going on behind the scenes – that we don’t know – than there is going on in the feeble minds of the Financial News Jerkoffs!
Steve ..I applaud your post…FUCK all the writers of bullshit releases!!!
Steve O
Agree with almost everything except. President had alot of help with F’ing up the economy. Wall street greed, Democratic policies(Fannie/Freddie) of high income housing for low(no)income families, Community orgaiizers threating to sue (BALL LESS)Financial institutions if they did not make said loans. So please properly give credit where credit is due. This ecomomic meltdown should be blamed on Congress as a whole>
Steve O – Well Said! I’m listening to Sirius right now and agree with what you say.
Happy New Year!
SteveSirius,
Thank you – I’m just tired of the negativity that seems to constantly surround satellite radio. It is the most unappreciated technology/product I have ever seen, bar none. I’m glad to hear you are listening to it; I have it on all night and I love it. Dollar for dollar, the greatest entertainment investment I have ever made. Unfortunately, we live in a country where powerful forces have slandered this product unmercifully, and the media brainwashed conformist zombies – the American public – believe everything they hear, unconditionally!
Happy New Year to you, SteveSirius! It’s nice to know there are some rational people out there like yourself. By the way, keep posting your comments; I always look forward to reading your opinion on all matters “Sirius/XM”.
SiriusHope -How are you, my man?! Good to hear from you, as always. The bullshit releases just keep coming, almost like a giant propaganda tsunami washing up on a beach of unsuspecting sat rad listeners. Did you ever notice that most of the releases are so angst ridden, so obviously biased against satellite radio, that it really makes you wonder if there is some kind of conspiracy or something. The whole thing just smacks of collusion to me.
I hate terrestrial radio, but I’m not on some whacko mission to disparage it, or stop people from listening to it. If they enjoy listening to shit, and like hearing the same 9 songs played over and over with 7 hours of commercials a day, who am I to deprive them. If they are already this stupid, they aren’t going to listen to me anyway.
SiriusHope – I siriusly hope you have a Great & Happy New Year. Best of luck to you, and all of the fine people who frequent this site!
The time is coming when we will see it all turn around.. but it NEVER fails when ever any good news comes so does all the cockroaches out of every crack and cranny to spread there crap to keep this company down…But why do they waste so much of their precious time to bash a .12 stock?…..Its is free Radio who’s worried about Sirius and thats alot of players….Its still the FCC whos worried that as free Radio dies so will their income of high transmission charges for free Radio to exsist….
This will be the Year where SiriusXM will be reborn and eventaully we will look back and Laugh ALL THE WAY TO THE BANK….GOOD LUCK
still sirius – oh believe me, I know he had a lot of help! But the fact remains, all of these other things you mention – all factors impacting negatively on Sirius/XM – occured UNDER HIS WATCH. The only problem was he wasn’t watching a damn thing, other than the collapse of the entire country.
So yes, I do agree with you that he had lots of help; the common denominator being that wall street, failed policies all over the place, Congress undoubtedly, etc. were just as corrupt as goofball Bush was. What a piece of work this character has been, and I still wonder in amazment; how in the hell did someone this unqualified EVER BECOME PRESIDENT ?????