April 2008


XM Comedy Unmasked

xm-logo-black.gifStand-up comedy greats Lewis Black, Margaret Cho, Janeane Garofalo and famed comedy troupe The Kids in the Hall will be among those featured on XM Radio’s original comedy series “Unmasked” when the series kicks off a new season on May 3, it was announced today. Recorded before a live studio audience, “Unmasked” offers up candid, one-on-one interviews with both established and emerging comedic talent for an uncensored look into their creative process and the lives that shape their comedy.

Listeners to the new season of “Unmasked” will hear some of their favorite comedians recount lighthearted and sober stories alike, from Lewis Black sharing stories of his early, broke years working in the theatre, and the night he spent in jail, to Janeane Garofalo’s thoughts about her stint on “Saturday Night Live” and who is her least favorite comedian. Broadcast dates are as follows:

  • Lewis Black Saturday, May 3
  • Margaret Cho Saturday, May 17
  • The Kids in the Hall Saturday, May 31
  • Janeane Garofalo Saturday, June 14

The season premieres on Saturday, May 3 at 8 p.m. ET on XM’s uncensored comedy channel “XM Comedy” (XM 150). Additional programming information and encore schedules are available online at http://www.xmradio.com/unmasked

XM’s programming lineup features five dedicated comedy channels that offer a range of round-the-clock comic programming-uncensored comedy on “XM Comedy” (XM 150), family comedy on “Laugh USA” (XM 151), Canadian comedy on “Laugh Attack” (XM 153), short-form sketch comedy, standup and satire on “National Lampoon(TM) Comedy Radio” (XM 154) and irreverent comedy and talk from Opie and Anthony and Ron and Fez on High Voltage (XM 202). XM also offers other original comedy programming, including “Stand Up Sit Down,” which features long-form interviews and stand-up routines from a who’s who of comedians, including Lewis Black, George Carlin, John Cleese, Dane Cook, Bill Cosby, Jim Gaffigan, Gilbert Gottfried, Mitch Hedberg, Robert Klein, Larry the Cable Guy, Richard Lewis, Kathleen Madigan, Paul Mooney, Ron White and many others.

Position – Long XM

Starmate 5 – More Than A Name Change?

Speculation surrounding the capabilities of Sirius’ Starmate 5 has made its way around the Internet. The new device is in the midst of testing at the FCC, and a letter regarding the testing from the FCC mentioned XM Satellite Radio. This tidbit of information could be a clue as to an A-La-Carte capable receiver, or simply just an innocent use of the XM name in correspondence relating to the receiver.

Viewing the instruction manual for the Starmate 5 gives no real indication of XM capabilities. Some look at this as evidence that this is not a “special” receiver. I would caution such assumptions. An A-La-Carte radio would have a subscriber subscribing to either Sirius or XM initially, and the A-La-Carte offerings would be a handful of channels from the other service. Thus, it stands to reason that the directions would give no real indication of the channel line-up, and there would be no need, especially at this point, to divulge these capabilities.

With the understanding that the new Starmate 5 carries many similarities to the Starmate 4 in form and function, we decided to dig a bit deeper in an effort to see if there was something that differentiates the two devices. We pulled the internal photo of the Starmate 4 as filed with the FCC on August 17, 2007 as well as the internal photo of the Starmate 5 as filed with the FCC on May 3, 2008, and BEHOLD……extra stuff and substantial changes!!!

starmate.JPG

Now, I am no circuit board expert, but perhaps a reader can comment on what some of these changes might mean. It could be as simple as an upgrade to the chipsets, but only 8 months has passed between these two FCC filings. Is there something in here that relates to additional functionality? I guess we need experts to let us know. If the changes do relate to an A-La-Carte radio, it could mean that such a device would be available for the2008 Holiday season. There is plenty of time for production if this is the case.

FCC Filing for Starmate 4

FCC Filing for Starmate 5

Orbitcast Article

Position – Long Sirius, Long XM

Directed Electronics Extends Deal With Sirius

directed-electronics.gifIn a press release issued today, Directed Electronics, Inc. (Nasdaq: DEIX) announced that the company has amended certain terms and extended its manufacturing and distribution agreement with SIRIUS Satellite Radio, Inc. through January 31, 2009.

James E. Minarik, President and Chief Executive Officer of Directed, said, “Together with SIRIUS, over the past three years, we have achieved the #1 position in aftermarket satellite radio sales, and are once again pleased to extend our relationship. By extending the contract from August 31, 2008 into 2009, we have the opportunity to generate significant sales of SIRIUS branded products this year, given that roughly 50% of our 2007 satellite radio sales occurred in the fourth quarter. We also look forward to what we hope will be the final approval of the SIRIUS/XM merger in the very near future, which we expect to improve retail consumer demand.”

The amendment also contains certain provisions that further reduce Directed’s exposure to satellite radio product warranty costs.

Mr. Minarik continued, “In the third quarter of 2007, our earnings were adversely impacted by a $4.3 million increase to our warranty expense principally related to our satellite radio business. With this new amendment, the risk of unexpected satellite radio warranty expense is expected to decrease significantly, while concurrently improving our ability to provide superior service to our satellite radio customers. Cumulatively, we believe these changes will lead to improved financial results for this business.”

The extension gives Directed some security through the 2008 holiday selling season. Should the merger pass, and Directed be tasked with developing an A-La-Carte radio, it could represent a boost in retail sales for Directed. Directed stock has traded in the $2 per share range in recent months.

Position – Long Sirius, Long XM

Sirius And XM Delay Annual Meetings

sirius xm logoSirius and XM Satellite Radio each announced today that the companies are deferring their respective annual meetings. The satellite radio companies which are in the midst of a proposed merger both indicated that they will announce new meeting dates when they have more information from the FCC on the merger.

The Sirius and XM meetings were scheduled for May 20th and May 23rd respectively.

The U.S. Department of Justice informed SIRIUS and XM that it ended its investigation into the pending merger, that it has concluded that the merger is not anti-competitive, and that it will allow the transaction to proceed. SIRIUS and XM each obtained stockholder approval for the pending merger in November 2007. The pending merger is still subject, among other conditions, to approval of the Federal Communications Commission.

Position – Long Sirius, Long XM

Correction On Retail Article

In our April 21 article titled Satellie Radio Retail Trends Improve In March there was an error in some of the year over year comparisons due to improper input on a data spreadsheet. While the errors were not large, we wanted to make the correct notations.

Please note the following corrections. The opriginal article has also been corrected.

The NPD data for March will likely be viewed in a positive light by the street as well as analysts, as the trend has improved substantially over the past three months. January’s NPD showed sector down 40%. February NPD had an improvement although sector sales were still down 17%. Now in March, sector sales are down 14% 11%. For Sirius the drop in year over year was only 8.7% 3%. This represents 31 consecutive months that NPD has shown Sirius to have a larger retail share than XM.

NPD MARKET SHARE MARCH 2008

Sirius – 61%
XMSR – 39%

YEAR TO DATE NPD MARKET SHARE 2008

Sirius – 63%
XMSR – 37%

Q1 2008 NPD MARKET SHARE

Sirius – 63%
XMSR – 37%

YEAR OVER YEAR COMPARISON (MARCH 2008 vs. MARCH 2007)

Sirius – Down 8.7% 3%
XMSR – Down 21.8%
Sector – Down 14% 11%

MONTH OVER MONTH COMPARISON (MARCH 2008 vs. FEBRUARY 2008)

Sirius – Down 3% UP 3%
XMSR – Up 23%
Sector – Up 6% 10%

We apologize for any inconvienience. The errors modified Sirius and sector year over year comparisons.

Position – Long Sirius, Long XM

Will GM Woes Impact Satellite?

gm-logo.jpgSatellite radio garners a lot of subscriptions from the automobile (OEM) channel. In fact, for the past several months, the weaker retail channel has had SDARS sector watchers relying quite heavily on cars equipped with satellite radio as a saving grace for subscriber numbers. Headlines that GM is cutting back production on trucks and SUV’s may send some people following Sirius and XM into worry mode.

Two years ago, what is happening at GM would have been very bad news. It was at that point that it was the GM truck and SUV line that made up the bulk of satellite radio installations for XM Satellite Radio. Today, while the news is not good, the impact can be better absorbed. The reason is that GM is now installing XM receivers across more vehicle lines than they were in 2006. The overall penetration is also deeper.

The GM news states that the layoff’s and production cuts will mean 88,000 fewer pick-ups and 50,000 fewer SUV’s. This means a total of 138,000 less vehicles. If we assume a 75% penetration in the pick-up/SUV segment, then 103,500 fewer XM equipped vehicles will roll off the lines this year. Of that 103,500 about 55,000 were destined to become self paying subscribers. The deeper penetration across more model lines will easilly absorb these types of numbers.

Yes, it does slow down growth. However, it does not represent doom and gloom. Car sales have been down for most auto makers this year. Production cuts are happening. Penetration is also getting deeper though, so the impact will not be felt to the extent that some may anticipate. Specific to the XM, with regard to the GM issue, this is a Q4 and Q3 impact.

Another thing to consider is that the chipsets are still available for GM to install. This means that they may well utilize these radios anyway. XM is a revenue generation deal for GM, and if the chipsets are already there, they might as well conduct the installations. With the types of numbers and the time frame we are talking about, the overall installation number may not change.

It is often easy to assume that bad news such as GM’s translates through to the related SDARS partner. Investors need to remember that the chipset orders run well ahead of production, and GM is still installing radios into the vehicles that will continue to be produced. The point to remember is that the OEM channel is still growing, and partners such as GM that share in the revenue gain nothing by letting SDARS receivers sit.

In my opinion, the OEM woes have potential to spill into SDARS if the sales lull is prolonged, but the ramp up that is happening is helping to soften the blows. Cars will still come SDARS equipped, and consumers will still become self paying subscribers. Watch the OEM channel, but measure the news carefully.

Position – Long Sirius, Long XM, No Position GM

Martin Said To Be Seeking 5-0 Consensus

tyler1.JPGGeorge Reed Dellinger, of Washington Analysis, who early on predict DOJ approval of the merger, and who watches activity in Washington noted that Friday Chairman Martin of the FCC has made some comments to reporters relating to the pending merger of Sirius and XM. Comments attributed to the FCC Chairman say that he is seeking a consensus 5-0 vote on the proposed satellite radio marriage.

We noted a few weeks ago on our Sirius Buzz Radio show “It Comes Down To the FCC” (available for download) that a simple 3-2 majority in favor of the merger would deliver the least amount of concessions, and that a 5-0 vote would mean more negotiations between the members of the commission, and thus perhaps more stringent conditions as well as additional delay. In essence, there could be a price to pay (concessions) for getting to a unanimous decision. The George Reed-Dellinger report confirms the hypothesis that we published a few weeks ago.

With Washington, one never knows the motives of what transpires behind closed doors, or in the minds of the commissioners. Martin could be genuinely seeking a consensus vote, or simply posturing in order to bring out the depth of the concessions that the dissentor(s) are seeking. Ultimately, it appears that FCC approval will happen, but for investors and the companies, it is a question of what the “cost” will be in terms of conditions placed on the ability to merge.

Reed-Dellinger notes that, “on the surface this implies the deal could be subjected to a lengthy, contentious debate over conditions, such as giving back spectrum or leasing channels, which the Democratic Commissioners may be expected to demand in return for their vote.”

However, the analyst also feels that Chairman Martin, “in our opinion, is merely mouthing the typical words encouraging collegiality, and will not sacrifice the deal, and the ‘a la carte’ pricing scheme offered by management, in order to get a 5-0 vote. In light of the strongly-worded approval by the Department of Justice, such a consensus is likely not needed to keep the appellate court from blocking the merger. Moreover, the DOJ went out of its way to praise the combination’s ‘synergies’, which should reinforce the Republican Commissioner’s goals of not saddling approval with unnecessary conditions.”

George Reed Dellinger remains of the opinion that the deal will be approved without burdensome conditions, on a 3-2 vote if need be, and that while the May 1 date of the Sirius and XM agreement will need to be extended, that approval should come within the next month.

Position – Long Sirius, Long XM

Pro Stock Car Racing

When someone does something with a passion it shows. That passion is easy to fall in love with, and easy to support when times are good. When the economy falters, and people and businesses need to make ends meet, it gets harder and harder for them to support the talents and passions of others. In times such as these, those that have the talent and desire to continue their calling need to reach deeper within themselves. In times like these they also need to extend their reach and seek out those simply looking to make a difference in some way.

brightman.JPG

Pro Stock Car racing is very regional. Pro Stock racers are often seen as a step below the “big time” of the Busch and NASCAR circuit. Pro Stock drivers tend to have more localized sponsors, and in point of fact are often digging into their own pockets to make their race dreams a reality, as well as entertain racing fans. It is from the ranks of Pro Stock that many racers make their mark and get to the next level.

In Pro Stock, you can see and feel the passion that the racers and crews have. These people do not do it for the money, they do it for the sport. Entire pit crews volunteer their time money and efforts to not only get a car ready to race, but to be differentiators in the pits on race day. This is where the racing we see on television is born. This is where the future drivers and pit crews in Busch and NASCAR come from.

Mike Brightman is a local Stock Car Driver racing for BGB Racing LLC. I had the pleasure of seeing mike this weekend at a family friendly fund drive to get the season rolling in high gear. An event such as this shows the dedication that friends, family, and local sponsors have for this sport and one of its drivers, Mike Brightman.

Continue Reading »