March 2008


REM Accelerates Into Sirius

REM is back, and they are serious. The band, which has many fans will be taking over Sirius Spectrum for an entire week beginning March 31st, 2008. Radio REM will feature exclusive interviews, and playlists spanning the 30 years career of the band.

Sirius announced today that R.E.M. will take over its Spectrum channel for an entire week. Radio R.E.M. will launch in conjunction with the release of the band’s 14th studio album Accelerate and feature music from band’s expansive repertoire. The channel will premiere on Monday, March 31 at 7 am ET.

Radio R.E.M., hosted exclusively by band members Michael Stipe, Peter Buck and Mike Mills, will include insights from the band on the inspiration for each song on Accelerate, as well as conversations with R.E.M. covering a variety of topics ranging from the state of the band to their personal worldviews.

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A-La-Carte Discussed With FCC

fcc-kevin-martin.jpgCounsel from Sirius and XM met with the FCC Commissioner and various staff on March 26th, 2008. The topics of discussion centered on merger filings consistent with that which has been discussed in the past. As part of the meeting, Sirius and XM showed the proposed A-La-Carte channel line-up for post merger satellite radio. The company urged the FCC to deliver prompt approval.

Not that A-La-Carte programming was ever out of play, but this meeting would tend to suggest that it is indeed a merger concession that will likely be demanded by the FCC.

Interestingly, the comments urging the FCC for prompt approval, while expected in this situation, would also seem to indicate that the regulator is now to the point of weighing the merger options. This would be consistent with comments made by Chairman Martin that the staff was drafting documents outlining various merger situations.

Reading between the lines, it is possible that various concession options were discussed at this very meeting.

The FCC published their weekly “Items In Circulation” list today, and the Sirius XM issue was not present. At this point it would appear that the FCC is close to rendering their decision. They are meeting with company counsel, and seem to have all relative information in their hands to consider.

I would estimate that the FCC will be delivering a decision sometime in April, and place higher odds on the middle third of the month.

Sirius and XM Filing With FCC

Position - Long Sirius, Long XM

Attorneys Generals Disappointed with DOJ’s Sirius XM Decision

It was predictable that various parties would be quick to jump into the party following the decision by the Department of Justice to approve the merger of Sirius and XM without restriction. With all eyes on the FCC, and the FCC holding the only chance to see concessions in the case, many are now once again presenting their wish list to the agency as if Kevin Martin was Santa Clause.

In the news toady, it was revealed that Attorney Generals from 11 states have decided that they are disappointed that the Department of Justice arrived at their approval without placing any restrictions on the transaction. The reaction of these states to attorneys has some irony. On one hand, the Department of Justice weighed out the evidence for over a year. They poured through millions of pages of documents and reviewed pages upon pages of data. They looked at the merger from various perspectives, and in the end concluded that from an anti trust standpoint that the merger could pass. On the other hand, we have the Attorney Generals for a handful of states arriving at a conclusion without having reviewed all of the documentation, nor all of the data. IN fact, it would almost seem as if they have never reviewed the case in general.

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Clear Channel Sees Some Recovery

bain.JPGInvestors in Clear Channel Communications saw a bit of green in after hours trading today. The news that brought investors back into the equity was that the private equity groups that proposed the buyout are now suing the lenders that had agreed to back the deal.

It has been alleged that the banks began to balk at financing the deal when debt markets took a turn for the worse. Bain Capital Partners and Thomas H. Lee Partners stated in their suit that the lenders tried to change the terms of the deal. The two private equity firms are seeking the courts help to force the lenders to agree to the terms of the deal. Clear Channel themselves has also joined in the litigation.

Named in the suit are CITI, Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse, Royal Bank of Scotland, Deutsche Bank, and Wachovia.

A Citigroup spokeswoman said the suits were without merit and they would contest them vigorously.

“The Bank Group presented the Sponsors (THL and Bain) with credit agreements fully consistent and compliant with the Commitment Letter,” the spokeswoman wrote. “The Bank Group has been and remains prepared to honor the obligations as set forth in that Letter.”

The lending institutions noted that they stood to lose billions on the deal. Whether it was the markets or something else that made the deal get cold feet will likely come out during the proceedings in the near future.

The news that the buyout firms were still pursuing the deal sent CCU up $2.00 to close at $29.00 in after hours trading Wednesday.

One thing is certain, CCU is now embroiled in a litigation battle, and it could be some time before the issue plays out. This effectively may cause Clear Channel to trade in a channel for some time.

VIA Reuters

Thanks Homer

Position - No Position Clear Channel, banking with CITI, unrelated business with Morgan Stanley

Georgetown Partners Still Active With The FCC

Now that the Department of Justice has approved the merger between Sirius and XM, and all eyes are on the FCC, it is no surprise that Georgetown Partners has had their 26th meeting with the FCC. This publication has been highly critical of the Georgetown Partner proposal for many reasons. The proposal lacks anything concrete, and seems to offer little in return for what is potentially given up by the merged company. Shareholders of SDARS have endured the costs of getting SDARS where it is today, and now, on the cusp of turning the corner to becoming profitable enterprises with a future, a proposal is made that would take away all of the efforts that have been invested into these companies.

I question whether Chester Davenport and Georgetown Partners is in this for the long haul, or simply acting as a middleman and will divest the business which he is lobbying the FCC to obtain. Is there someone, or some company behind Georgetown Partners? Rather than speculate, and because to date no real answers have been given, I decided to give Mr. Davenport a call, and ask the questions that all investors want an answer to. Unfortunately, Mr. Davenport was not available when I called, and as of this posting has not returned my call. For the record, here is what I intended on asking…

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Is Clear Channel Collapse Tied To Sirius And XM Merger

clear-channel-logo.gifOne can not help but wonder. The day after the Department of Justice gives the green light to the merger of Sirius and XM, Bain Capital and Clear Channel part ways. According to the press, the deal collapsed because the parties could not come to financing terms. However, could it be possible that Bain, the buyer, was stalling the process all along to see the outcome of the merger of Sirius and XM?

Would a merged satellite radio company have an impact on the value of Clear Channel in the eyes of Bain Capital? Perhaps it would. While neither Bain, nor Clear Channel would ever admit that this is the case, the timing of the issue, and statements of market insiders that Bain no longer wanted the deal have to leave people scratching their heads.

One thing is certain. The audio entertainment landscape is no longer dominated by the Clear Channels and CBS’s of the world. Satellite, wireless, and many other players are now gaining market share. Granted, the theory that Bain backed out of the Clear Channel deal because of the Sirius/XM merger is pure speculation, but the timing is curious if nothing else.

Clear Channel has taken a virtual beating in after hours trading.

Position - Long Sirius, Long XM, No Position Clear Channel, No Position CBS

Ford Sells Jaguar and Land Rover For $2 Billion

Ford Motor Company has sold off its Jaguar and Land Rover Brands to Tata Motors, an India based company. sources indicate that the deal, signed last evening, will be publicly announced Wednesday morning. Ford has an exclusive satellite radio contract with Sirius. The deal encompasses all Ford owned brands, which includes Jaguar and Land Rover.

Ford is still expected to have some involvement with the brands because the deal has a stipulation that Ford motors will still be used by Tata. Current agreements tied to Land Rover and Jaguar will still hold, but in the future, SDARS will have a new company to negotiate with for OEM installs. Neither Jaguar nor Land Rover represent a large share of the auto market.

Position - Long Sirius, XM. No Position Ford

Stifel Upgrades Sirius On DOJ Aapproval Of Merger

Stifel analyst Kit Spring has issued an upgrade on Sirius after the DOJ approved the merger deal between Sirius and XM.

REPORT EXCERPTS

Merger Synergies Underappreciated; Reiterate Buy and $4Target

DOJ approved merger; stocks under-reacted: Despite an estimated $4.8B of synergies, XMSR and SIRI shares had a muted impact in our view indicating either skepticism on the size/timing of the synergies or a view that DOJ approval means there is too much competition. The 5.1% merger spread indicates a healthy degree of skepticism of FCC approval.

FCC approval likely to be next catalyst:
We expect the FCC to approve the merger within weeks with impositions that do not materially impact our $4.8B of merger synergies, which already include the concessions of a lacarte pricing, adult tiers, and price freezes. Unlikely surprise impositions that would reduce our synergies would be 1) required inclusions of HDradios (request by iBiquity) - too onerous as XMSR/SIRI does not make radios, and 2) spectrum giveback - unlikely as it would reduce benefits to consumers and adjacent WCS spectrum is still not being used.

Model will improve dramatically post the merger: 1) increases likilihood that satellite radio ends up standard versus our 75% assumption, 2) nearly every expense line item should see dramatic reductions (after initial costs),3) improved prospects of profitability increase likilihood that $4.5B of combined NOLs can be used.

Tyler Savery Position - Long Sirius, Long XM

Stifel Upgrades XM On DOJ Merger Approval News

Stifel analyst Kit Spring has issued an upgrade following DOJ approval of the merger between Sirius and XM.

REPORT EXCERPTS

Merger Synergies Underappreciated; Upgrading to Buy w/$18.40 Target

DOJ approved merger; stocks under-reacted: Despite an estimated$4.8B of synergies, XMSR and SIRI shares had a muted impact in our view indicating either skepticism on the size/timing of the synergies or a view that DOJ approval means there is too much competition. The 5.1% merger spread indicates a healthy degree of skepticism of FCC approval.

FCC approval likely to be next catalyst: We expect the FCC to approvethe merger within weeks with impositions that do not materially impact our $4.8B of merger synergies, which already include the concessions of a lacarte pricing, adult tiers, and price freezes. Unlikely surprise impositions that would reduce our synergies would be 1) required inclusions of HDradios (request by iBiquity) - too onerous as XMSR/SIRI does not make radios, and 2) spectrum giveback - unlikely as it would reduce benefits to consumers and adjacent WCS spectrum is still not being used.

Tyler Savery Position - Long Sirius, Long XM

Morgan Stanley Issues Report On DOJ Approval of Sirius and XM Merger

Morgan Stanley has issued a report on the DOJ approval of the merger between Sirius and XM

REPORT EXCERPTS

Sirius Satellite Radio Quick Comment: 13 Months Later, DOJ Approves Merger

DOJ Approved Proposed Merger: Now that the DOJ approval is in, the FCC vote is all that is remaining. Following closing, the merged entity should benefit from some lift in demand from combined programming offerings – in particular offering all the sports programming and talk radio on a single platform for the first time. In the medium term, we would expect the merged entity to look for cost savings opportunities in programming, overhead, and subscriber acquisition costs. Critical swing factors in investor perception of themerger will include the ability to renegotiate large contracts on the programming and OEM front in addition to stimulating new demand and lowering the OEM conversion ratio.

Sirius Buzz members can get additional information in the Sirius Buzz Forums

Position - Long Sirius, XM.